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Analyzing the impact of drought on agriculture: evidence from Pakistan using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index

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The current study evaluates the impact of drought on Pakistan's agriculture sector at national and provincial scales during 2000–2020 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3). Severe drought events were observed during 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2017, and 2018, which are used to demonstrate the impact of drought on agriculture. Balochistan and Sindh provinces are severely affected by drought due to their arid/hyper-arid climate nature. Drought severity is relatively high in Kharif season (ranging from severe to moderate) compared with drought in Rabi season. The average SPEI-3 during Kharif (Rabi) season across KP, Punjab, Balochistan, and Sindh provinces are − 0.48 to − 1.02 (0.47 to − 0.83), − 1.33 to − 1.68 (− 0.93 to − 1.36), − 1.21 to − 1.54 (− 0.76 to − 1.30), and − 1.73 to − 2.07 (1.54 to − 1.96), respectively. The results showed that Punjab, Balochistan, and Sindh provinces are most vulnerable to drought. As the drought index becomes more positive, the maize yield increases at both national and provincial levels. Drought has mixed effects on the rice yield. Similarly, the decline in drought severity leads to an increase in sugarcane, tobacco and wheat yields. The decrease in drought severity has a positive impact on the irrigated area under canals, wells and tubewells at both national and provincial levels. Similarly, an increase in the drought index also leads to an increase in the total cultivated and cropped area.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to Pakistan Meteorology Department (PMD) and Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) for providing the in-situ precipitation and temperature data.

Funding

This research was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number 51839006) and the Shuimu Scholar Program of Tsinghua University (Grant number 2020SM072).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics and Development Studies, University of Swat, Swat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

    Anwar Hussain

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic International Univeristy, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Khan Zaib Jadoon

  3. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Bei**g, 100084, China

    Khalil Ur Rahman & Songhao Shang

  4. Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, 54890, Pakistan

    Muhammad Shahid

  5. Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80208, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia

    Nuaman Ejaz

  6. Institute of Development Studies, Agriculture University, Peshawar, Pakistan

    Himayatullah Khan

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  1. Anwar Hussain
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Correspondence to Songhao Shang.

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Hussain, A., Jadoon, K.Z., Rahman, K.U. et al. Analyzing the impact of drought on agriculture: evidence from Pakistan using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Nat Hazards 115, 389–408 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05559-6

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