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The historical case of Paricutin volcano (Michoacán, México): challenges of simulating lava flows on a gentle slope during a long-lasting eruption

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Abstract

Simulating lava flows on a gentle slope is complex since they can propagate in a wide range of directions. It is an even greater challenge to define lava flow trajectories when an eruption lasts over several years and flows cool down, changing the surrounding topography. In this study, we test Q-LavHA, an open source plug-in that simulates lava flow inundation calculating its probability, and using Paricutin’s eruption (1943–1952) in central Mexico as a case study. We have appropriately calibrated the Q-LavHA plug-in for the Paricutin case study, which provides insights on how to better model lava flows in gentle terrain. From this work, we observe that each phase is characterized by a unique set of parameters requiring a careful calibration and that low-relief topographies require special consideration. Our findings could be useful for real-time hazard evaluation in future volcanic scenarios in the Michoacán–Guanajuato volcanic field and elsewhere, where new monogenetic eruptions similar to Paricutin can be expected.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to stress our gratitude to Elisabeth A. Gallant and Simone Tarquini for their painstaking and constructive review that undoubtedly has strongly improved our manuscript. We also thank Editor James Goff for his guidance and editorial handling.

Funding

This research was supported by the Government of Spain through “Juan de la Cierva” postdoctoral fellowship awarded to L. Becerril; NSF EAR 1019798 (2014–2016) and a UNAM-DGAPA postdoctoral fellowship (2018–2019) granted to P. Larrea; National Science Foundation (NSF) EAR grant #1019798 awarded to E. Widom. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT-167231) and Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Académico (UNAM-DGAPA-IN-104221) granted to C. Siebe; and VeTOOLS and EVE projects funded by the European Commission (EC ECHO SI2.695524 and 826292EC ECHO SI2.695524) granted to J. Martí.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geological Survey of Chile (SERNAGEOMIN), Teatinos 50, Santiago de Chile, Chile

    Laura Becerril

  2. Geosciencies Barcelona (GEO3BCN), Spanish Scientific Research Council (CSIC), 08028, Barcelona, Spain

    Laura Becerril & Joan Martí

  3. Department of Geology and Andean Geothermal Center of Excellence (CEGA), Facultad de Ciencias Físicas Y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Plaza Ercilla 803, Santiago, Chile

    Patricia Larrea

  4. Department of Geology and Environmental Earth Science, Miami University, Oxford, OH, 45056, USA

    Patricia Larrea & Elisabeth Widom

  5. Facultad de Ingeniería, División de Ingeniería en Ciencias de La Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, C.P. 04510, Coyoacán, Mexico City, Mexico

    Sergio Salinas

  6. Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050, Brussel, Belgium

    Sophie Mossoux

  7. Escuela Nacional de Ciencias de La Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, C.P. 04510, Coyoacán, Mexico City, Mexico

    Dolors Ferrés

  8. Departamento de Vulcanología, Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, C.P. 04510, Coyoacán, Mexico City, Mexico

    Claus Siebe

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  1. Laura Becerril
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  2. Patricia Larrea
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  3. Sergio Salinas
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  4. Sophie Mossoux
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  5. Dolors Ferrés
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  6. Elisabeth Widom
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  7. Claus Siebe
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  8. Joan Martí
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Contributions

L.B. and P.L. conceived and developed the original idea and took the lead in writing the manuscript, designed the figures, tables, and supplementary material. L.B. performed the numerical simulations with the input of P.L., S.M, D.F, and S.S. The reconstructed paleotopography and DEMs were fully created by S.S. All authors provided critical feedback and helped shape the research and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Laura Becerril.

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Becerril, L., Larrea, P., Salinas, S. et al. The historical case of Paricutin volcano (Michoacán, México): challenges of simulating lava flows on a gentle slope during a long-lasting eruption. Nat Hazards 107, 809–829 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04607-x

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