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Study of double combination evaluation of urban comprehensive disaster risk

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Abstract

Aiming at solving the difficult problem of inconsistent single-method evaluation results in comprehensive disaster risk assessment, this paper presents an evaluation method based on a combination of the ranking value and the evaluation value. First, the seven methods of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), the set pair analysis (SPA), the improved grey target analysis (IGT), the fuzzy stochastic simulation (FSS), the grey relational degree analysis (GRA), the extension matter element evaluation (EME), and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) are used to conduct urban comprehensive disaster risk assessment. Second, to ensure the degree of correlation between individual evaluation methods and make full use of more information to achieve the purpose of complementary advantages, the Kendall synergy coefficient, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient, and the comprehensive support coefficient are used as the single-method compatibility consistency test standards. The combined evaluation methods of the cyclic correction model and support model are used to combine the single evaluation results, and the highly coordinated comprehensive disaster risk ranking value and evaluation value are obtained through repeated tests, thus constructing a highly scientific and reasonable dual combination evaluation model. Finally, through analysis and comparison of the final combined ranking and evaluation values of 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions in China under the dual combination mode, it is verified that the dual combination idea can obtain evaluation results with high convergence and credibility, solve the problem of inconsistent evaluation results of multiple methods, provide a new research idea and method for measuring the comprehensive disaster risk of cities, and provide a scientific basis for efficiently serving comprehensive risk prevention management and various urban planning and construction work.

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Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51678017), National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No. 2018YFD1100902-1), Natural Science Funds of Hebei Provincial Department of Education (QN2018094), and Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (G2018202059, E2019202470).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Bei**g University of Technology, Bei**g, 100124, China

    Wei Wang, Chenhong **a & Ziyi Wang

  2. Institute of Earthquake Resistances and Disaster Reduction, Bei**g University of Technology, Bei**g, 100124, China

    Wei Wang

  3. College of Civil and Transportation, Hebei University of Technology, Tian**, 300401, China

    Chaofeng Liu

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  1. Wei Wang
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  2. Chenhong **a
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  3. Chaofeng Liu
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  4. Ziyi Wang
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Correspondence to Wei Wang or Chaofeng Liu.

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Wang, W., **a, C., Liu, C. et al. Study of double combination evaluation of urban comprehensive disaster risk. Nat Hazards 104, 1181–1209 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04210-6

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