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Uncertainty Analysis of Geochemical Anomaly by Combining Sequential Indicator Co-simulation and Local Singularity Analysis

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Abstract

Accurate characterization of geochemical anomaly related to metal mineralization and quantification of uncertainty propagation in space prediction are important for assessment of geochemical exploration risk. In this study, an efficient method that integrates sequential indicator co-simulation (SIcS) with local singularity analysis (LSA) is presented to characterize uncertainty propagation in geochemical anomaly and to construct exploration risk-related probability expression model. The method yields a series of realizations to reproduce some expected statistical and spatial characteristics including spatial correlation structure and the expected fluctuations between these realizations. The advantage of the method is that, in the uncertainty evaluation of geochemical anomaly, an auxiliary variable can be incorporated into rebuilding the spatial structure of the primary variable. To demonstrate the proposed method, a case study for uncertainty analysis of iron mineralization-related geochemical anomalies was conducted in the Chinese Western Tianshan region. Two variables, Fe2O3 and Ti, were considered in the case study. Under the constraint of covariate Ti, uncertainty analysis of Fe2O3 anomaly was investigated by integrating SIcS with LSA. In comparison with SIS, the results indicate that SIcS is superior to SIS in modeling Fe2O3 concentrations and in enhancing local anomalies when the auxiliary variable Ti was considered to restore the spatial structure of the primary variable Fe2O3. The results show that areas with high probability values have strong spatial consistency with the known iron ore locations. Therefore, the method proposed in this study helps greatly in delineation of areas with high probability of metal mineralization and in assessment of geochemical prospecting risk.

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Acknowledgments

This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42172325) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) (CUG2106202). We thank three anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments that improve the quality of the manuscript.

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  1. Faculty of Earth Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Yue Liu

  2. Geological Sciences, School of Agriculture, Engineering and Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville Campus, Durban, South Africa

    Emmanuel John M. Carranza

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Correspondence to Yue Liu.

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Liu, Y., Carranza, E.J.M. Uncertainty Analysis of Geochemical Anomaly by Combining Sequential Indicator Co-simulation and Local Singularity Analysis. Nat Resour Res 31, 1889–1908 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-021-10001-y

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