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Simulating land use change for sustainable land management in rapid urbanization regions: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta region

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Abstract

Context

The rapid urbanization in China has led to acute land use conflicts between urban expansion and the protection of cropland and ecological land, which have also threatened the sustainable use of land resources and regional sustainable development. However, most current land management policies for solving these conflicts focus on short-term economic benefits, neglecting sustainable land management.

Objectives

The goal is to propose sustainable land management strategies for balancing the coordinated relationships among urban expansion, cropland protection, and ecological protection in the Yangtze River Delta region (YRDR).

Methods

We used a newly proposed patch-generating land use simulation model to determine the key driving factors and to simulate future land use changes under multiple development scenarios in the YRDR. Additionally, we analysed the evolution process of land use dynamics in the YRDR from 2000 to 2050.

Results

Future urban expansion was projected to be spatially unevenly distributed under different topographic conditions and among different economic development regions, indicating that more consideration should be given to platform regions and less economically developed areas to meet the demand for future construction activities. Additionally, driving factor analysis suggested that governments should take measures to guide the population to economically underdeveloped areas and that the governments of newly developed areas should focus on extending the local road network first.

Conclusions

The methodological framework for integrating future land use simulations with analyses of driving forces and land use evolution processes can alleviate or eliminate land use conflicts to achieve sustainable land management in rapid urbanization regions.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Funding

This research was funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China (42271307, and 42271060) and the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province (2208085MD91).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Urban Studies, School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, China

    Zhonghao Zhang & **man Sun

  2. School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, 241002, China

    Xueting Wang, Yue Zhang & Junjun Zhi

  3. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Bei**g, 100193, China

    Yang Gao & Yuexin Liu

  4. Natural Resources and Planning Bureau of Taihu County, Anqing, 246400, Anhui Province, China

    Sufang Yin

Authors
  1. Zhonghao Zhang
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  2. Xueting Wang
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  3. Yue Zhang
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  4. Yang Gao
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  5. Yuexin Liu
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  6. **man Sun
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  7. Junjun Zhi
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  8. Sufang Yin
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Zhonghao Zhang, Xueting Wang, Yue Zhang and Yang Gao. Review and editing were performed by Yuexin Liu, **man Sun, Junjun Zhi and Sufang Yin. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Zhonghao Zhang and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yang Gao.

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Zhang, Z., Wang, X., Zhang, Y. et al. Simulating land use change for sustainable land management in rapid urbanization regions: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta region. Landsc Ecol 38, 1807–1830 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01657-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01657-3

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