Abstract
The Middle East and North Africa can exploit solar energy resources and export them to Europe and South Asia for a sustainable future of the world. A high voltage direct current (HVDC) multi-terminal transmission grid is employed in this research to export solar energy to South Asia from the Middle East and from North Africa to Europe. The 4 GW HVDC multi-terminal transmission line is proposed in the Middle East and North Africa countries of Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. Photovoltaic energy from the furthest point in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is proposed to be exported to east and west to Gwadar, Pakistan, and Alexandroupoli, Greece, respectively. In another route, photovoltaic energy export is analyzed from Riyadh to Gwadar via UAE and Oman, while energy export from Tabuk, Saudi Arabia to Sevilla, Spain via North Africa is analyzed. The energy export from all locations is found to be economically feasible. The most viable route is energy export from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to Alexandroupoli, Greece via Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey which achieves an internal rate of return of 19.37% with the net present value of 2561 MUSD for a power purchase agreement of 0.11 USD/kWh. The large-scale PV plants and transmission line strengthen the local grids and provide a photovoltaic energy shifting of 1.5 h between neighboring countries of the Middle East and North Africa and a 7100 km long solar silk road offers reliable photovoltaic energy to customer countries. The project will enhance the Middle East and North Africa countries' technical capability and reduce air pollution.
Similar content being viewed by others
Abbreviations
- CSP:
-
Concentrated solar power
- MENA:
-
Middle East and North Africa
- C n :
-
Cash flow in a year [USD]
- ME:
-
Middle East
- DNI:
-
Direct normal irradiance [kWh/m2/day]
- n :
-
Number of years
- DRnominal :
-
Nominal discount rate [%]
- NA:
-
North Africa
- DR real :
-
Real discount rate [%]
- NPV:
-
Net present value [USD]
- EPC:
-
Engineering, procurement and construction [USD]
- NEPRA:
-
National Electric Power Regulatory Authority, Pakistan
- EnergyPV :
-
Energy generated by PV [kW]
- NTDC:
-
National Transmission and Distribution Company, Pakistan
- EU:
-
Europe
- PV:
-
Photovoltaic
- GHI:
-
Global horizontal irradiance [kWh/m2/day]
- Pdc Rated :
-
Rated power of PV panel [kW]
- HVDC:
-
High voltage direct current
- PPA:
-
Power purchase agreement [USD]
- HVAC:
-
High voltage alternating current
- Q n :
-
Electrical energy generated [kW]
- HTF:
-
Heat transfer fluid
- R n :
-
Revenue generated [USD]
- IRR:
-
Internal rate of return [%]
- SA:
-
South Asia
- I diffused from sky :
-
Diffused irradiance from sky [kWh/m2/day]
- T cell :
-
Temperature of PV cell [oC]
- I plane of array :
-
Irradiance on plane of array [kWh/m2/day]
- TES:
-
Thermal energy storage
- I Direct :
-
Direct normal irradiance [kWh/m2/day]
- T reference :
-
Temperature at testing conditions [oC]
- I diffused from ground :
-
Diffused irradiance from ground [kWh/m2/day]
- WHO:
-
World Health Organization
- LCOE:
-
Levelized cost of energy [USD]
- γ:
-
Temperature coefficient of the PV[%]
- MUSD:
-
Million USD [USD
References
Alassi, A., Bañales, S., Ellabban, O., Adam, G., & MacIver, C. (2019). HVDC transmission: Technology review, market trends and future outlook. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 112, 530–554. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.04.062
Awan, A. B., Zubair, M., Praveen, R. P., & Abokhalil, A. G. (2018). Solar energy resource analysis and evaluation of photovoltaic system performance in various regions of Saudi Arabia. Sustainability (Switzerland), 10(4), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10041129
Awan, A. B., Zubair, M., Praveen, R. P., & Bhatti, A. R. (2019). Design and comparative analysis of photovoltaic and parabolic trough based CSP plants. Solar Energy, 183(2018), 551–565. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2019.03.037
Bellan, D. G., Filho, R.J.-G., Garcia, J. G., de Toledo Petrilli, M., Maia Viola, D. C., Schoedl, M. F., & Petrilli, A. S. (2012). IRENA Energy capacity Report. Revista Brasileira de Ortopedia (English Edition). https://doi.org/10.1016/s2255-4971(15)30126-9
Benasla, M., Hess, D., Allaoui, T., Brahami, M., & Denaï, M. (2019). The transition towards a sustainable energy system in Europe: What role can North Africa’s solar resources play? Energy Strategy Reviews, 24(January), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.01.007
Boie, I., Kost, C., Bohn, S., Agsten, M., Bretschneider, P., Snigovyi, O., et al. (2016). Opportunities and challenges of high renewable energy deployment and electricity exchange for North Africa and Europe - scenarios for power sector and transmission infrastructure in 2030 and 2050. Renewable Energy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.10.008
Brand, B., & Blok, K. (2015). Renewable energy perspectives for the North African electricity systems: A comparative analysis of model-based scenario studies. Energy Strategy Reviews, 6, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2014.11.002
Brecl, K., & Topič, M. (2011). Self-shading losses of fixed free-standing PV arrays. Renewable Energy, 36(11), 3211–3216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2011.03.011
Dusonchet, L., & Telaretti, E. (2015). Comparative economic analysis of support policies for solar PV in the most representative EU countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42, 986–998. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.10.054
EEA. (2020). Ecological footprint of European countries. Indicator Assessment Data and Maps, European Environment Agency. https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/#c0=30&c12-operator=or&b_start=0. Accessed 7 June 2020
EU. (2016). Europe Statistics. Yearly Data of European Countries. Statistical office of the European Union. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/energy. Accessed 12 December 2018
Griffiths, S. (2017). Renewable energy policy trends and recommendations for GCC countries. Energy Transitions, 1(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41825-017-0003-6
Gul, M., Tai, N., Huang, W., Nadeem, M. H., Ahmad, M., & Yu, M. (2019). Technical and economic assessment of VSC-HVDC transmission model: A case study of South-Western region in Pakistan. Electronics (Switzerland). https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics8111305
Halawa, E., James, G., Shi, X. R., Sari, N. H., & Nepal, R. (2018). The prospect for an australian-asian power grid: A critical appraisal. Energies, 11(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11010200
Haller, M., Ludig, S., & Bauer, N. (2012). Decarbonization scenarios for the EU and MENA power system: Considering spatial distribution and short term dynamics of renewable generation. Energy Policy, 47, 282–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.069
Hussain, A., Rahman, M., & Memon, J. A. (2016). Forecasting electricity consumption in Pakistan: The way forward. Energy Policy, 90, 73–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.11.028
IRENA. (2019a). Global Energy Transformation A Roadmap to 2050. Abu Dhabi: International Renewable Energy Agency. http://irena.org/publications/2018/Apr/Global-Energy-Transition-A-Roadmap-to-2050%0Awww.irena.org
IRENA. (2019b). Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2018. Abu Dhabi: International Renewable Energy Agency. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Jan/IRENA_2017_Power_Costs_2018.pdf
Kabir, E., Kumar, P., Kumar, S., Adelodun, A. A., & Kim, K. H. (2018). Solar energy: Potential and future prospects. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 82(2016), 894–900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.09.094
Knorr, W., & Schnitzler, K. G. (2006). Enhanced albedo feedback in North Africa from possible combined vegetation and soil-formation processes. Climate Dynamics, 26(1), 55–63. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0073-9
Kost, C., Pfluger, B., Eichhammer, W., & Ragwitz, M. (2011). Fruitful symbiosis: Why an export bundled with wind energy is the most feasible option for North African concentrated solar power. Energy Policy, 39(11), 7136–7145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.032
Krupa, J., & Poudineh, R. (2017). Financing renewable electricity in the resource-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa: A review. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Financing-renewable-electricity-in-the-resource-rich-countries-of-the-Middle-East-and-North-Africa-A-review-EL-22.pdf
Lakshmanan, P., Liang, J., & Jenkins, N. (2015). Assessment of collection systems for HVDC connected offshore wind farms. Electric Power Systems Research, 129, 75–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2015.07.015
Li, Y., Kalnay, E., Motesharrei, S., Rivas, J., Kucharski, F., Kirk-Davidoff, D., et al. (2018). Climate model shows large-scale wind and solar farms in the Sahara increase rain and vegetation. Science, 361(6406), 1019–1022. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aar5629
Louw, A., Boyle, R., Strahan, D., Collins, B., Kimmel, M., Giannakopoulou, E., & Becker, L. (2018). Global trends in renewable energy investment 2018. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. https://doi.org/10.3928/00220124-20081201-03
Maisch, M. (2020). Australia-Singapore power link: world’s biggest solar-plus-storage project gets government backing. PV Magazine. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/07/22/australia-singapore-power-link-worlds-biggest-solarstorage-project-get-government-backing/. Accessed 2 December 2020
May, T. W., Yeap, Y. M., & Ukil, A. (2017). Comparative evaluation of power loss in HVAC and HVDC transmission systems. IEEE Region 10 Annual International Conference, Proceedings/TENCON, (March 2018), 637–641. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1109/TENCON.2016.7848080
Munawwar, S., & Ghedira, H. (2014). A review of renewable energy and solar industry growth in the GCC region. Energy Procedia, 57, 3191–3202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2015.06.069
NEPRA, P. (2020). Decision of National Electric Power Regulatory Authority for Adjustment of Tariff of Solar Power generation. Tarrif Adjustment. https://nepra.org.pk/tariff/GenerationIPPsSolar.php. Accessed 1 July 2020.
Newell, R. G., Raimi, D., & Aldana, G. (2019). Global Energy Outlook 2019: The Next Generation of Energy. http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/courses/101/GlobalEnergyOutlook2019.pdf.
NTDC. (2016). Petition for determination of Tariff for 660 kV HVDC. Islamabad: Private Power Infrastructure Board, Ministry of Water and Power, Government of Pakistan. https://nepra.org.pk/tariff/Tariff/Petitions/2016/Petition/HVDC.pdf.
Otsuki, T. (2017). Costs and benefits of large-scale deployment of wind turbines and solar PV in Mongolia for international power exports. Renewable Energy, 108, 321–335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.02.018
Perez, R., Ineichen, P., Seals, R., Michalsky, J., & Stewart, R. (1990). Modeling daylight availability and irradiance components from direct and global irradiance. Solar Energy, 44(5), 271–289. https://doi.org/10.1016/0038-092X(90)90055-H
Pierri, E., Binder, O., Hemdan, N. G. A., & Kurrat, M. (2017). Challenges and opportunities for a European HVDC grid. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 70(2016), 427–456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.233
Purvins, A., Sereno, L., Ardelean, M., Covrig, C. F., Efthimiadis, T., & Minnebo, P. (2018). Submarine power cable between Europe and North America: A techno-economic analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 186, 131–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.095
Riaz, R., & Hamid, K. (2018). Existing smog in Lahore, Pakistan: An alarming public health concern. Cureus, 10(1), 1–3. https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.2111
Sayed, S., & Massoud, A. (2019). Minimum transmission power loss in multi-terminal HVDC systems: A general methodology for radial and mesh networks. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 58(1), 115–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2018.12.007
Sgouridis, S., Griffiths, S., Kennedy, S., Khalid, A., & Zurita, N. (2013). A sustainable energy transition strategy for the United Arab Emirates: Evaluation of options using an integrated energy model. Energy Strategy Reviews, 2(1), 8–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2013.03.002
Shabbir, M., Junaid, A., & Zahid, J. (2019). Smog: A transboundary issue and its implications in India and Pakistan. Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), 10. https://www.think-asia.org/bitstream/handle/11540/9584/smog-atransboundary-issue-and-its-implications-in-India-and-Pakistan%28PB-67%29.pdf?sequence=1
Siyal, M. A., Maheshwari, V. K., Memon, A. M., Rukh Memon, L., Hussain, A., & Mirjat, N. H. (2019). Techno-Economic Analysis of HVDC Transmission Line Project of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). 4th International Conference on Power Generation Systems and Renewable Energy Technologies, PGSRET 2018, (September), 1–6. DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1109/PGSRET.2018.8686000
Tofigh, A. A., & Abedian, M. (2016). Analysis of energy status in Iran for designing sustainable energy roadmap. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, 1296–1306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.209
Trieb, F., Schillings, C., Pregger, T., & O’Sullivan, M. (2012). Solar electricity imports from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe. Energy Policy, 42, 341–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.091
Van de Graaf, T., & Sovacool, B. K. (2014). Thinking big: Politics, progress, and security in the management of Asian and European energy megaprojects. Energy Policy, 74(c), 16–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.027
van Ruijven, B. J., De Cian, E., & Sue Wing, I. (2019). Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change. Nature Communications, 10(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10399-3
Vartiainen, E., Masson, G., Breyer, C., Moser, D., & Román Medina, E. (2020). Impact of weighted average cost of capital, capital expenditure, and other parameters on future utility-scale PV levelised cost of electricity. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 28(6), 439–453. https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.3189
Vytelingum, P., Voice, T. D., Ramchurn, S. D., Rogers, A., & Jennings, N. R. (2010). Agent-based micro-storage management for the smart grid. In AAMAS ’10 Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems: volume 1 - Volume 1, (Aamas) (pp. 39–46). ISBN 978-0-9826571-1-9
Wang, Q., Li, S., & Li, R. (2018). Forecasting energy demand in China and India: Using single-linear, hybrid-linear, and non-linear time series forecast techniques. Energy, 161, 821–831. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.07.168
World Bank. (2018). World Bank Databank. World Data. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/. Accessed 10 March 2020
**ang, X., Merlin, M. M. C., & Green, T. C. (2016). Cost Analysis and Comparison of HVAC, LFAC and HVDC for Offshore Wind Power Connection. 12th IET International Conference on AC and DC Power Transmission (ACDC 2016), 6 (6 .)-6 (6 .). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1049/cp.2016.0386
Zubair, M. (2018). Analysis of net-zero energy housing society in Gwadar Pakistan to mitigate the load shedding problem. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 10(6), 065906. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5053952
Zubair, M., Awan, A. B., Praveen, R. P., & Abdulbaseer, M. (2019). Solar energy export prospects of the kingdom of saudi arabia. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 11(4), 045902. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5098016
Zubair, M., Bilal Awan, A., Ghuffar, S., Butt, A. D., & Farhan, M. (2020). Analysis and selection criteria of lakes and dams of Pakistan for floating photovoltaic capabilities. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, 142(3), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4045352
Acknowledgements
This research was supported Deanship of Scientific Research of the Majmaah University, 11952, Majmaah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Contract No. 1439-60).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zubair, M., Awan, A.B. Economic viability of solar energy export from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe and South Asia. Environ Dev Sustain 23, 17986–18007 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01424-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01424-x