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Climatic variables are more effective on the spatial distribution of oak forests than land use change across their historical range

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Abstract

The current research is conducted to model the effect of climate change and land use change (LUC) on the geographical distribution of Quercus brantii Lindl. (QB) forests across their historical range. Forecasting was done based on six general circulation models under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 future climate change scenarios for the future years 2050 and 2070. In order to model the species distribution, different modeling methods were used. The results indicated that, in general, climatic variables had a higher influence on the distribution of QB than land use–related attributes. The mean diurnal range (bio2), the precipitation seasonality (bio15), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) were the main predictors in the distribution of QB forests, while land use variables were less important in oak species distribution. The GBM, MaxEnt, and RF had higher accuracy and performance in modeling species distribution. The outputs also showed that in the current climate circumstances, 97,608.81 km2 of the studied area has high desirability for the presence of QB, and by 2070, under the pessimistic scenario, 96.29% of these habitats will be lost under the concomitant effect of LUC and climate change. By using the results of this research, it is possible to predict and identify the effective factors in changing the habitat of this oak species with more certainty. Based on the insights obtained from the results of such studies, the protection and restoration planning of the habitat of this key species, which supports diverse species, will be provided more efficiently.

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Data Availability

The data in this study are available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author.

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Funding

This research was financially supported by Ilam University, Ilam, Iran.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forest Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran

    Hengameh Mirhashemi & Mehdi Heydari

  2. Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

    Kourosh Ahmadi

  3. General Department of Natural Resources and Watershed Management of Ilam Province, Ilam, Iran

    Omid Karami

  4. HUN-REN ‘Lendület’ Seed Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Vácrátót, Hungary

    Orsolya Valkó

  5. Department of Biology, College of Education, University of Sulaimani, Kurdistan Region, Sulaimani, 46001, Iraq

    Nabaz R. Khwarahm

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Contributions

H.M, K.A., and M.H: Conceptualization, methodology, data curation, resources, formal analysis, software, visualization, supervision, writing (original draft), writing (review and editing). O.K: Data curation, investigation, writing—original draft. O.V. and NN.R.K: Writing—review and editing.

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Correspondence to Mehdi Heydari.

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Mirhashemi, H., Ahmadi, K., Heydari, M. et al. Climatic variables are more effective on the spatial distribution of oak forests than land use change across their historical range. Environ Monit Assess 196, 289 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12438-z

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