Abstract
Climate warming-driven temporal shifts in phenology are widely recognised as the foremost footprint of global environmental change. In this regard, concerted research efforts are being made worldwide to monitor and assess the plant phenological responses to climate warming across species, ecosystems and seasons. Here, we present a global synthesis of the recent scientific literature to assess the progress made in this area of research. To achieve this, we conducted a systematic review by following PRISMA protocol, which involved rigorous screening of 9476 studies on the topic and finally selected 215 studies for data extraction. The results revealed that woody species, natural ecosystems and plant phenological responses in spring season have been predominantly studied, with the herbaceous species, agricultural ecosystems and other seasons grossly understudied. Majority of the studies reported phenological advancement (i.e., preponement) in spring, followed by also advancement in summer but delay in autumn. Methodology-wise, nearly two -third of the studies have employed direct observational approach, followed by herbarium-based and experimental approaches, with the latter covering least temporal depth. We found a steady increase in research on the topic over the last decade with a sharp increase since 2014. The global country-wide scientific output map highlights the huge geographical gaps in this area of research, particularly in the biodiversity-rich tropical regions of the develo** world. Based on the findings of this global synthesis, we identify the current knowledge gaps and suggest future directions for this emerging area of research in an increasingly warming world.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are highly thankful to the research scholars and supporting staff of the Centre for Biodiversity and Taxonomy, University of Kashmir, for their kind support during this study. We duly acknowledge Dr K. V. Sankaran, FAO Consultant, Kerala (India) for his help in language improvement of the manuscript. We are grateful to the Associate Editor, Pierre Herckes and the anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions that improved the quality of this manuscript.
Funding
This work was supported in the form of Research Fellowship from University Grants Commission, India (under MANF) to the First Author (Tabasum Hassan). The senior author (Anzar Ahmad Khuroo) acknowledges the funding received under the research project entitled “Functional diversity, phenology and frost resistance in plants under extreme Himalayan environments” from Science & Engineering Research Board, New Delhi, vide sanction order No. SCP/2022/000252, dated: 23 February, 2023.
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Anzar Ahmad Khuroo conceived the research idea with inputs from Rameez Ahmad and supervised the study; Tabasum Hassan collected the data with help from Ruquia Gulzar and Anzar Ahmad Khuroo. Tabasum Hassan, Maroof Hamid and Showkat A. Waza conducted data analysis and interpreted the results; Tabasum Hassan and Anzar Ahmad Khuroo led manuscript writing with inputs from Rameez Ahmad and Maroof Hamid. All the authors read and approved the final manuscript for submission.
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Hassan, T., Gulzar, R., Hamid, M. et al. Plant phenology shifts under climate warming: a systematic review of recent scientific literature. Environ Monit Assess 196, 36 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-12190-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-12190-w