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Significant calendar period deviations in testicular germ cell tumors indicate that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant

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Abstract

Purpose

The current working model of type II testicular germ cell tumor (TGCT) pathogenesis states that carcinoma in situ arises during embryogenesis, is a necessary precursor, and always progresses to cancer. An implicit condition of this model is that only in utero exposures affect the development of TGCT in later life. In an age-period-cohort analysis, this working model contends an absence of calendar period deviations. We tested this contention using data from the SEER registries of the United States.

Methods

We assessed age-period-cohort models of TGCTs, seminomas, and nonseminomas for the period 1973–2008. Analyses were restricted to whites diagnosed at ages 15–74 years. We tested whether calendar period deviations were significant in TGCT incidence trends adjusted for age deviations and cohort effects.

Results

This analysis included 32,250 TGCTs (18,475 seminomas and 13,775 nonseminomas). Seminoma incidence trends have increased with an average annual percentage change in log-linear rates (net drift) of 1.25 %, relative to just 0.14 % for nonseminoma. In more recent time periods, TGCT incidence trends have plateaued and then undergone a slight decrease. Calendar period deviations were highly statistically significant in models of TGCT (p = 1.24−9) and seminoma (p = 3.99−14), after adjustment for age deviations and cohort effects; results for nonseminoma (p = 0.02) indicated that the effects of calendar period were much more muted.

Conclusion

Calendar period deviations play a significant role in incidence trends of TGCT, which indicates that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

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Acknowledgments

The study was supported by Intramural Program of the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services.

Conflict of interest

There are no financial disclosures from any of the authors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, 6120 Executive Blvd, EPS/Suite 550, Bethesda, MD, 20852-7234, USA

    Katherine A. McGlynn & Michael B. Cook

  2. Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA, USA

    Crystal Speaks

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  1. Crystal Speaks
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  2. Katherine A. McGlynn
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  3. Michael B. Cook
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Correspondence to Michael B. Cook.

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Speaks, C., McGlynn, K.A. & Cook, M.B. Significant calendar period deviations in testicular germ cell tumors indicate that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant. Cancer Causes Control 23, 1593–1598 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-012-0036-5

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