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A simulation-based regional ground-motion model for Western Turkiye

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A Correction to this article was published on 26 May 2023

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Abstract

We developed a simulation-based ground motion model (GMM) for Western Turkiye emphasizing the regional differences between the Aegean and Marmara regions in terms of stress parameter, geometrical spreading, anelastic attenuation, and site amplification. The developed GMM also accounts for VS (shear wave) versus kappa (high-frequency diminution) adjustment tailored for average kappa and VS variation at the strong-motion sites in Turkiye. Our model predicts 5%-damped horizontal spectral acceleration ordinates for periods between 0.01 s ≤ T ≤ 10 s, PGA and PGV. The horizontal component definition is the geometric mean, and it can be used for moment magnitudes between 3.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 8.0, and rupture distances Rrup ≤ 400 km. We represented the aleatory variability by a partially non-ergodic sigma. Our comparisons with the recent data-driven local and pan-European GMMs advocate the significance and prevalent nature of regional effects on the predicted ground-motion amplitudes. The case studies we performed by the model also emphasize the different nature of ground motion amplitudes between the Aegean and Marmara regions dominated by the respective extensional and transform shallow active tectonic regimes. Our model inherently captures the variability in the above random predictor variables, which enables the seismic hazard analyst to reflect them on the annual exceedance probability distributions of the ground-motion amplitudes.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.”

Change history

Notes

  1. In the last three decades, moderate and large earthquakes in the Marmara region are: 1999-M7.6 Kocaeli, 1999-M7.2 Düzce, 2014-M6.9 Gökçeada, 2019-M5.9 Silivri earthquakes. Similar size earthquakes in the Aegean region are: 2002-M6.2 Afyon, 2011-M5.7 Simav, 2017-M5.7 Ayvacık, 2017-M6.2 Karaburun, 2017-M6.4 Kos, 2019-M6.0 Denizli, 2020-M5.5 Manisa, and 2020-M7.0 Samos earthquakes.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Dr. A. Akinci and Dr. S.R. Kotha for their valuable comments that improved the initial version of the manuscript.

Funding

Authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Hacettepe University, 06800, Ankara, Türkiye

    M. Abdullah Sandıkkaya

  2. Principal Catastrophe Modeler, Turk Reasurans A.S., 34768, Istanbul, Türkiye

    Sinan Akkar

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, TED University, 06420, Ankara, Türkiye

    Özkan Kale

  4. Haley & Aldrich Inc., Seattle, WA, USA

    Emrah Yenier

Authors
  1. M. Abdullah Sandıkkaya
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  2. Sinan Akkar
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  3. Özkan Kale
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by ÖK and MAS. The first draft of the manuscript was written by MAS. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.”

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Correspondence to M. Abdullah Sandıkkaya.

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Sandıkkaya, M.A., Akkar, S., Kale, Ö. et al. A simulation-based regional ground-motion model for Western Turkiye. Bull Earthquake Eng 21, 3221–3249 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-023-01658-2

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