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Early Violent Failure Precursor Prediction Based on Infrared Radiation Characteristics for Coal Specimens Under Different Loading Rates

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Abstract

The early prediction of violent coal-bearing strata failure using effective monitoring is crucial to avoid losses due to catastrophic failures and geological disasters to ensure safe and efficient underground deep coal mining. In this study, the early coal failure precursor was established by researching the application of critical slowing down theory (CSDT) using two infrared radiation (IR) indexes, i.e., variance IR temperature (VIRT) and variance of differential infrared image temperature (VDIIT) under different loading rates. The CSDT parameters: variance and autocorrelation, are evaluated using both indexes in different time window and lag step lengths. The test results revealed that the abrupt and significant fluctuations in variance and autocorrelation for both indexes occurred during rock deformation and before the violent damage. The autocorrelation comparatively shows an obvious reliable fluctuation due to stationarity (show no change in fluctuation before the inflection point), which can be used as a precursor for violent rock failure. It has been shown that the stress level of autocorrelation at the inflection point decreases inversely with the loading rate for both indexes. These stress levels for VIRT are 0.920, 0.890, 0.865, and 0.813 of the σmax under the corresponding loading rates of 0.1, 0.4, 0.7, and 1.0 mm/min, respectively. For VDIIT, at loading rates of 0.1, 0.4, 0.7, and 1.0 mm/min the stress levels are 0.930, 0.892, 0.870, and 0.815 σmax, respectively. Therefore, it has been recommended that the prediction performance of precursory characteristics of IR can be improved by applying the CSDT for an early prediction of rock failure.

Highlights

  • In this study, the early coal failure precursor was established by exploring the application of critical slowing down theory (CSDT) under different loading rates.

  • During different loading rates, the CSDT parameters variance and autocorrelation are evaluated using IR indexes, i.e., variance infrared radiation temperature (VIRT) and variance of differential infrared image temperature (VDIIT) under different window and lag step lengths.

  • The test results revealed that the abrupt and significant fluctuations in variance and autocorrelation for VIRT and VDIIT occurred during rock deformation and violent damage.

  • The autocorrelation comparatively shows a reliable fluctuation due to stationarity, which can be used as a precursor for rock failure.

  • The precursor information based on autocorrelation stress level decreases (about 3.4% for VIRT and 4.2% for VDIIT) with an increase in loading rate.

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Acknowledgements

This paper was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51874280).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Deep Coal Resource Mining (China University of Mining and Technology), Ministry of Education, Xuzhou, 221116, China

    N. M. Khan, L. Ma, A. J. S. Spearing & W. Liu

  2. Department of Sustainable Advanced Geomechanical Engineering, Military College of Engineering, National University of Sciences and Technology, 23200, Risalpur, Pakistan

    N. M. Khan

  3. Department of Mining Engineering, Balochistan University of Information Technology Engineering and Management Sciences, Quetta, Pakistan

    N. M. Khan

  4. State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, Jiangsu, China

    K. Cao

  5. Zi** Mining Group Co., Ltd., Longyan, 364200, Fujian, China

    Y. Jie

  6. Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, 45320, Islamabad, Pakistan

    M. Yousaf

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Khan, N.M., Ma, L., Cao, K. et al. Early Violent Failure Precursor Prediction Based on Infrared Radiation Characteristics for Coal Specimens Under Different Loading Rates. Rock Mech Rock Eng 55, 6939–6961 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-022-03021-4

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