Abstract
As the carbon-neutral target has been set, it is of great importance to investigate and attribute dry-wet climate response for which CO2 emission is increasing, decreasing, and remaining stable over time. Therefore, our study utilize data from five models of the CMIP6 to analyze the spatiotemporal variations and attribution of global drought as presented by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) during periods of CO2 increasing by 1% per year, decreasing by 1% per year, and remaining stable. During the CO2 ramp-up period, potential evapotranspiration (PET) increases faster than precipitation (P), causing a decrease in SPEI. Conversely, a faster PET decrease than P leads to increased SPEI during the CO2 ramp-down period. Spatially, low and mid-latitudes exhibit opposite trends to high latitudes, with the most pronounced responses observed in the Amazon, southern Africa, and Australia. After CO2 returns to pre-industrial (PI) concentration, global P and PET do not recover, remaining ~2% higher compared to PI levels. However, SPEI shows a recovery in the global average, yet fails to reach PI levels in specific regions. Furthermore, extreme drought and wetness events persist with increased frequency and severity compared to PI levels despite the recovery of CO2 concentration. Finally, based on the attribution analysis, the contribution of precipitation (~35%) to drought changes is secondary to that of PET (~65%), which is primarily promoted by air temperature (~50%), followed by net radiation (~10%) and relative humidity (~6%) with negligible effect of wind speed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The CMIP6 outputs are available online at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The global land cover map V2.3 compiled by European Space Agency is download from http://due.esrin.esa.int/page_globcover.php.
References
Aadhar S, Mishra V (2020a) On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble. J Geophys Res: Atmospheres 125 e2020JD033587. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033587
Aadhar S, Mishra V (2020b) Increased Drought Risk in South Asia under Warming Climate: Implications of Uncertainty in Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates. J Hydrometeorol 21:2979–2996. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0224.1
Allen R, Smith M, Pereira L, Perrier A (1994) An update for the calculation of reference evaporation. ICID Bull 43:35–93
An S-I, Shin J, Yeh S-W, et al (2021) Global Cooling Hiatus Driven by an AMOC Overshoot in a Carbon Dioxide Removal Scenario. Earth’s Futur 9: e2021EF002165. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002165
Boucher O, Halloran PR, Burke EJ et al (2012) Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO 2 concentration changes. Environ Res Lett 7:024013. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024013
Cao L, ** X-Y, Jiang J (2023) Simulated carbon cycle and Earth system response to atmospheric CO2 removal. Adv Clim Chang Res 14:313–321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2023.03.001
Carrão H, Naumann G, Barbosa P (2018) Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management. Clim Dyn 50:2137–2155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3740-8
Cook BI, Mankin JS, Marvel K, et al (2020) Twenty-First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios. Earth’s Future 8: e2019EF001461. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001461
Dai A (2011) Drought under global warming: a review. Wires Clim Change 2:45–65. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81
Dai A, Zhao T (2017) Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: estimates of historical drought changes. Climatic Change 144:519–533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1705-2
de Raposo VMB, Costa VAF, Rodrigues AF (2023) A review of recent developments on drought characterization, propagation, and influential factors. Sci Total Environ 898:165550. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165550
Funk C, Harrison L, Shukla S et al (2018) Examining the role of unusually warm Indo-Pacific sea-surface temperatures in recent African droughts. Q J R Meteorol Soc 144:360–383. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3266
Guan X, Ma J, Huang J et al (2019) Impact of oceans on climate change in drylands. Sci China Earth Sci 62:891–908. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-018-9317-8
Hao Z, Yuan X, **a Y et al (2017) An Overview of Drought Monitoring and Prediction Systems at Regional and Global Scales. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 98:1879–1896. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00149.1
Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:1095–1108. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
Hayes M, Svoboda M, Wall N, Widhalm M (2011) The Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices: Universal Meteorological Drought Index Recommended. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:485–488. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3103.1
Hou H, Qu X, Huang G (2021) Reversal Asymmetry of Rainfall Change Over the Indian Ocean During the Radiative Forcing Increase and Stabilization. Earth’s Futur 9:e2021EF002272. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002272
Huang J, Li Y, Fu C et al (2017a) Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges: Dryland Climate Change. Rev Geophys 55:719–778. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000550
Huang J, Yu H, Dai A et al (2017b) Drylands face potential threat under 2°C global warming target. Nat Clim Change 7:417–422. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3275
Huang G, Xu Z, Qu X et al (2022a) Critical climate issues toward carbon neutrality targets. Fundamental Res 2:396–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fmre.2022.02.011
Huang J, Mondal SK, Zhai J, et al (2022b) Intensity-area-duration-based drought analysis under 1.5°C–4.0°C warming using CMIP6 over a climate hotspot in South Asia. J Clean Prod 345: 131106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131106
Jo S-Y, Seong M-G, Min S-K, et al (2022) Hysteresis Behaviors in East Asian Extreme Precipitation Frequency to CO2 Pathway. Geophys Res Lett 49:e2022GL099814. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099814
Keller DP, Lenton A, Scott V et al (2018) The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6. Geosci Model Dev 11:1133–1160. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018
Kim S-K, Shin J, An S-I, et al (2022) Widespread irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation in response to CO2 forcing. Nat Clim Chang 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01452-z
Kim S-Y, Choi Y-J, Son S-W, et al (2023) Hemispherically asymmetric Hadley cell response to CO2 removal. Sci Adv 9:eadg1801. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg1801
Liu C, An S-I, ** F-F, et al (2023) ENSO skewness hysteresis and associated changes in strong El Niño under a CO2 removal scenario npj Clim Atmos Sci 6 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00448-6
Long S-M, **e S-P, Du Y et al (2020) Effects of Ocean Slow Response under Low Warming Targets. J Clim 33:477–496. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0213.1
Lorenz EN (1956) Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction. Technical report, Statistical Forecast Project Report 1, Dept. of Meteor., MIT, 1956. pp. 49
Lu J, Carbone GJ, Grego JM (2019) Uncertainty and hotspots in 21st century projections of agricultural drought from CMIP5 models. Sci Rep 9:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41196-z
McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, pp. 179–184
Milly PCD, Dunne KA (2016) Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying. Nat Clim Change 6:946–949. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3046
Mondal SK, An S-I, Min S-K et al (2023) Hysteresis and irreversibility of global extreme precipitation to anthropogenic CO2 emission. Weather Clim Extrem 40:100561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100561
Nguyen P-L, Min S-K, Kim Y-H (2021) Combined impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on global droughts assessed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Int J Climatol 41:E1645–E1662. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6796
North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling Errors in the Estimation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110%3c0699:SEITEO%3e2.0.CO;2
Paik S, An S-I, Min S-K, et al (2023) Hysteretic Behavior of Global to Regional Monsoon Area Under CO2 Ramp-Up and Ramp-Down. Earth’s Futur 11:e2022EF003434. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003434
Prudhomme C, Giuntoli I, Robinson EL et al (2014) Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111:3262–3267. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222473110
Rogelj J, Popp A, Calvin KV et al (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nat Clim Change 8:325–332. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3
Sanderson BM, Xu Y, Tebaldi C et al (2017) Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures. Earth Syst Dyn 8:827–847. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017
Sheffield J, Wood EF, Roderick ML (2012) Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nat 491:435–438. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11575
Spinoni J, Barbosa P, Bucchignani E et al (2020) Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data. J Clim 33:3635–3661. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
Spinoni J, Barbosa P, Bucchignani E et al (2021) Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: A CORDEX-based study. Int J Climatol 41:6825–6853. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7302
Spinoni J (2019) A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016. J Hydrol 24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100593
Sun S, Chen H, Ju W et al (2014) On the attribution of the changing hydrological cycle in Poyang Lake Basin, China. J Hydrol 514:214–225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.013
Sun S, Chen H, Sun G et al (2017) Attributing the Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration in Southwestern China Using a New Separation Method. J Hydrometeorol 18:777–798. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0118.1
Sun S, Li Q, Li J et al (2019) Revisiting the evolution of the 2009–2011 meteorological drought over Southwest China. J Hydrol 568:385–402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.071
Sun M-A, Sung HM, Kim J, et al (2021) Reversibility of the hydrological response in east asia from CO2-derived climate change based on CMIP6 simulation. Atmosphere 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010072
UNCCD (2022) Drought in numbers. https://www.unccd.int/resources/publications/drought-numbers
UNCCD (2023) GLOBAL DROUGHT SNAPSHOT 2023 | The need for proactive action. https://www.unccd.int/resources/publications/global-drought-snapshot-2023-need-immediate-action
UNDRR (2021) Special report on drought 2021. https://www.undrr.org/publication/gar-special-report-drought-2021
van Oldenborgh GJ, Krikken F, Lewis S et al (2021) Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change. Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 21:941–960. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010) A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J Clim 23:1696–1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, Lorenzo-Lacruz J et al (2012) Performance of Drought Indices for Ecological, Agricultural, and Hydrological Applications. Earth Interact 16:1–27. https://doi.org/10.1175/2012EI000434.1
Vicente-Serrano SM, Van der Schrier G, Beguería S et al (2015) Contribution of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration to drought indices under different climates. J Hydrol 526:42–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.025
Wang L, Chen W, Zhou W (2014) Assessment of future drought in Southwest China based on CMIP5 multimodel projections. Adv Atmos Sci 31:1035–1050. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-3223-3
Wang F, Harindintwali JD, Yuan Z et al (2021a) Technologies and perspectives for achieving carbon neutrality. The Innovation 2:100180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2021.100180
Wang L, Chen W, Fu Q, et al (2021b) Super droughts over East Asia since 1960 under the impacts of global warming and decadal variability. Int J Climatol n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7483
Wang L, Huang G, Chen W, Wang T (2023) Super Drought under Global Warming: Concept, Monitoring Index, and Validation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 104:E943–E969. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0182.1
Wang L, Chen W, Huang G, et al (2024) Characteristics of super drought in Southwest China and the associated compounding effect of multiscalar anomalies. Science China Earth Sciences 67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-023-1341-4
Wu G, Chen J, Shi X, et al (2022) Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations. Earth’s Future 10: e2021EF002542. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002542
**e S-P, Deser C, Vecchi GA et al (2015) Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nat Clim Change 5:921–930. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2689
Yang Y, Roderick ML, Zhang S et al (2019) Hydrologic implications of vegetation response to elevated CO2 in climate projections. Nat Clim Change 9:44–48. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0361-0
Yeh S-W, Song S-Y, Allan RP, et al (2021) Contrasting response of hydrological cycle over land and ocean to a changing CO2 pathway. npj Clim Atmospheric Sci 4. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00206-6
Zhang S, Qu X, Huang G, Hu P (2023) Asymmetric response of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a carbon dioxide removal scenario. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6:10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00338-x
Zhao T, Dai A (2021) CMIP6 Model-projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the 21st Century. J Clim 35:897–921. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0442.1
Zhou S, Huang P, **e S-P et al (2022) Varying contributions of fast and slow responses cause asymmetric tropical rainfall change between CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down. Sci Bull. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2022.07.010
Acknowledgments
We thank the editor and the two anonymous referees for their valuable comments that helped to improve the manuscript.
Funding
This work was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (2019QZKK0102), the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants Nos. 42175041, 42141019, and 42261144687, the International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences for Future Network (060GJHZ2022104FN), the Youth Program of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and Key Deployment Project of Centre for Ocean Mega-Research of Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (COMS2019Q03).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors have not disclosed any competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Su, X., Huang, G., Wang, L. et al. Global drought changes and attribution under carbon neutrality scenario. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07310-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07310-2