Abstract
During 14 to 17 December 2013, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in South China received its largest wintertime 4-day precipitation of above 100 mm since 1998, due to strong cold air intrusion. Here we investigate the extent to which such extreme rainfall can be attributed to human activities, by carrying out Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model multi-physics integrations at a convection-permitting resolution. The factual WRF runs were conducted using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA)-Interim as boundary and initial conditions, and the counterfactual runs by the same ERA-Interim forcing with human influences removed. The latter was deduced by subtracting the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical-natural from the historical run outputs. Results show that the 4-day mean rainfall could increase by 11% for 1.2 K near-surface warming on average under human-induced thermodynamic forcing in relation to humidity changes, whereas it increases by 17% for 2 K warming under all forcing (i.e., including dynamic forcing associated with wind circulation changes), which is nearly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate. Moreover, the former and latter forcing can intensify the 95th percentile daily rainfall by ~ 13% and ~ 19%, respectively, suggesting that human-caused dynamic forcing can further exacerbate the thermodynamic-driven rainfall enhancement in this event. Indeed, there is stronger land-sea thermal contrast with anomalous low-level southerly winds and convergence in coastal South China under all forcing. The frontal system and ascending motion are therefore intensified, resulting in even stronger rain rates than under thermodynamic forcing. Moisture budget analysis reveals that the dynamic component accounts for most of the increase in 4-day mean rainfall while the thermodynamic contribution is negligible under all forcing. Our findings highlight the salient role of dynamic effects on intensifying PRD’s extreme rainfall in wintertime.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The CPC rainfall data were obtained from (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/). The TRMM 3B42V7 data is obtained via the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov). The ERA-Interim reanalysis was obtained from the ECMWF public datasets web interface (http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets). The CRU TS data was obtained from the Climatic Research Unit website (https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/cru/data/cru_ts/cru_ts_3.00). The HadISST data is obtained via the Met Office Hadley Centre (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs).
References
Alexander LV et al (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290
Ali H, Mishra V (2018) Contributions of dynamic and thermodynamic scaling in subdaily precipitation extremes in India. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2018GL077065
Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092
Bougeault P, Lacarrere P (1989) Parameterization of orography-induced turbulence in a mesobeta-scale model. Mon Weather Rev. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117%3c1872:POOITI%3e2.0.CO;2
Burke C, Stott P, Sun Y, Ciavarella A (2016) Attribution of extreme rainfall in Southeast China during May 2015. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0144.1
Chen Y, Li W, Jiang X, Zhai P, Luo Y (2021) Detectable intensification of hourly and daily scale precipitation extremes across eastern China. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0462.1
Chou C, Lan CW (2012) Changes in the annual range of precipitation under global warming. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00097.1
Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.82
Duan W, He B, Nover D, Fan J, Yang G, Chen W, Meng H, Liu C (2016) Floods and associated socioeconomic damages in China over the last century. Nat Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2207-2
Emori S, Brown SJ (2005) Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272
Endo H, Kitoh A (2014) Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon rainfall changes in a warmer climate. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059158
Fischer EM, Knutti R (2016) Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models. Nat Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3110
Frame DJ, Rosier SM, Noy I, Harrington LJ, Carey-Smith T, Sparrow SN, Stone DA, Dean SM (2020) Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought. Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02729-y
Fu G, Yu J, Yu X, Ouyang R, Zhang Y, Wang P, Liu W, Min L (2013) Temporal variation of extreme rainfall events in China, 1961–2009. J Hydrol (amst). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.021
Fung KY, Tam C-Y, Lee TC, Wang Z (2021) Comparing the anthropogenic heat and global warming impacts on extreme precipitation in urbanized pearl river delta area based on dynamical downscaling. J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035047
Grell GA, Dévényi D (2002) A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015311
Hong S (2006) Hongandlim-JKMS-2006. J Korean Meteorol Soc 42:129
Huang H, Winter JM, Osterberg EC, Horton RM, Beckage B (2017) Total and extreme precipitation changes over the Northeastern United States. J Hydrometeorol. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0195.1
Huang X, Wang D, Liu Y, Feng Z, Wang D (2018) Evaluation of extreme precipitation based on satellite retrievals over China. Front Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-017-0643-2
Huang W et al (2019) A possible mechanism for the occurrence of wintertime extreme precipitation events over South China. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4262-8
Huffman GJ et al (2007) The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J Hydrometeorol. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM560.1
Iacono MJ, Delamere JS, Mlawer EJ, Shephard MW, Clough SA, Collins WD (2008) Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: calculations with the AER radiative transfer models. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944
Janjic ZI (1994) The step-mountain eta coordinate model: further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes. Mon Weather Rev. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122%3c0927:TSMECM%3e2.0.CO;2
Kain JS, Kain J (2004) The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J Appl Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043%3c0170:TKCPAU%3e2.0.CO;2
Kim KY, Kim BS (2020) The effect of regional warming on the East Asian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05169-7
Kirchmeier-Young MC, Zhang X (2020) Human influence has intensified extreme precipitation in North America. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921628117
Lau WKM, Kim KM (2015) Robust Hadley circulation changes and increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1418682112
Lau WKM, Wu HT, Kim KM (2013) A canonical response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50420
Lee D et al (2017) Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in summer precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea: a multi-RCM study. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3566-4
Lenderink G, van Meijgaard E (2008) Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nat Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo262
Lenderink G, Mok HY, Lee TC, van Oldenborgh GJ (2011) Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones—Hong Kong and the Netherlands. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3033-2011
Lenderink G, Barbero R, Loriaux JM, Fowler HJ (2017) Super-Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly convective precipitation and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0808.1
Li C, Sun J (2015) Role of the subtropical westerly jet waveguide in a southern China heavy rainstorm in December 2013. Adv Atmos Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-4099-y
Li H, Chen H, Wang H (2017) Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China. J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026251
Li C et al (2018a) Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9691
Li W, Jiang Z, Zhang X, Li L (2018b) On the emergence of anthropogenic signal in extreme precipitation change over China. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079133
Li P, Guo Z, Furtado K, Chen H, Li J, Milton S, Field PR, Zhou T (2019) Prediction of heavy precipitation in the eastern China flooding events of 2016: added value of convection-permitting simulations. Q J R Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3621
Liu P, Tsimpidi AP, Hu Y, Stone B, Russell AG, Nenes A (2012) Differences between downscaling with spectral and grid nudging using WRF. Atmos Chem Phys. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3601-2012
Liu C et al (2017) Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3327-9
Lu C, Lott FC, Sun Y, Stott PA, Christidis N (2021) Detectable anthropogenic influence on changes in summer precipitation in China. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19
Ma S, Zhou T, Dai A, Han Z (2015) Observed changes in the distributions of daily precipitation frequency and amount over China from 1960 to 2013. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0011.1
Ma Y, Yang Y, Mai X, Qiu C, Long X, Wang C (2016) Comparison of analysis and spectral nudging techniques for dynamical downscaling with the WRF model over China. Adv Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/4761513
Min SK, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC (2011) Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09763
Myhre G et al (2019) Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52277-4
Nie J, Sobel AH, Shaevitz DA, Wang S (2018) Dynamic amplification of extreme precipitation sensitivity. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1800357115
Norris J, Chen G, David Neelin J (2019) Thermodynamic versus dynamic controls on extreme precipitation in a warming climate from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0302.1
Pall P, Aina T, Stone DA, Stott PA, Nozawa T, Hilberts AGJ, Lohmann D, Allen MR (2011) Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09762
Pfahl S, O’Gorman PA, Fischer EM (2017) Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation. Nat Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3287
Santer BD et al (2007) Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702872104
Seager R, Naik N, Vecchi GA (2010) Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1
Shen Y, **ong A (2016) Validation and comparison of a new gauge-based precipitation analysis over mainland China. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4341
Shepherd TG (2014) Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Nat Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2253
Skamarock WC et al (2008) A description of the advanced research WRF version 3, NCAR Tech. Note, NCAR/TN-468+STR. Natl. Cent. for Atmos. Res., Boulder
Sun JQ, Ao J (2013) Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China. Chin Sci Bull. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5542-z
Tabari H, Madani K, Willems P (2020) The contribution of anthropogenic influence to more anomalous extreme precipitation in Europe. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb268
Tewari M et al (2004) Implementation and verification of the unified NOAH land surface model in the WRF model. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84:89–95
Thompson G, Field PR, Rasmussen RM, Hall WD (2008) Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: implementation of a new snow parameterization. Mon Weather Rev. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2387.1
Trenberth KE, Zhang Y (2018) How often does it really rain? Bull Am Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0107.1
Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Shepherd TG (2015) Attribution of climate extreme events. Nat Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657
van Oldenborgh GJ et al (2018) Corrigendum: attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environ Res Lett 12:124009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa343
Wang SYS, Zhao L, Yoon JH, Klotzbach P, Gillies RR (2018) Quantitative attribution of climate effects on Hurricane Harvey’s extreme rainfall in Texas. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabb85
Westra S et al (2014) Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall. Rev Geophys. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000464
Zhang W, Zhou T (2019) Significant increases in extreme precipitation and the associations with global warming over the global land monsoon regions. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0662.1
Zhang X, Wan H, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC, Min SK (2013) Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.51010
Zhong S, Qian Y, Zhao C, Leung R, Wang H, Yang B, Fan J, Yan H, Yang X-Q, Liu D (2017) Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China. Atmos Chem Phys 17:5439–5457. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5439-2017
Zhao R, Tam C-Y, Lee SM (2022) Attributing extreme precipitation characteristics in South China Pearl River Delta region to anthropogenic influences based on pseudo global warming. J Clim (submitted)
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the financial support from the General Research Fund of the Hong Kong Research Grants Council (14308017). We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions.
Funding
This work was supported by the General Research Fund of the Hong Kong Research Grants Council (Grant 14308017).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
The study was designed by RZ and C-YT. RZ was responsible for data processing and analyses. RZ and C-YT were responsible for the model experiment design. The first draft of the manuscript was written by RZ and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Zhao, R., Tam, CY. & Lee, SM. Attribution of the December 2013 extreme rainfall over the Pearl River Delta to anthropogenic influences. Clim Dyn 61, 5533–5549 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06869-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06869-6