Abstract
The East Asian trough (EAT) profoundly influences the East Asian spring climate. In this study, the relationship of the EATs among the three spring months is investigated. Correlation analysis shows that the variation in March EAT is closely related to that of April EAT. Extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis also confirms the co-variation of the March and April EATs. The positive/negative EEOF1 features the persistent strengthened/weakened EAT from March to April. Further investigation indicates that the variations in EEOF1 are related to a dipole sea surface temperature (SST) pattern over the North Atlantic and the SST anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean. The dipole SST pattern over the North Atlantic, with one center east of Newfoundland Island and another east of Bermuda, could trigger a Rossby wave train to influence the EAT in March–April. The SST anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean can change the Walker circulation and influence the atmospheric circulation over the tropical western Pacific, subsequently impacting the southern part of the EAT in March–April. Besides the SST factors, the Northeast Asian snow cover could change the regional thermal conditions and lead to persistent EAT anomalies from March to April. These three impact factors are generally independent of each other, jointly explaining large variations in the EAT EEOF1. Moreover, the signals of the three factors could be traced back to February, consequently providing a potential prediction source for the EAT variation in March and April.
摘 要
东亚大槽深刻地影响东亚春季气候. 本研究首先分析了东亚大槽在春季各月间的联系. 通过相关分析发现3月与4月东亚大槽的变化显著相关. 扩展经验**交分解(EEOF)方法进一步证明了东亚大槽异常在3月和4月的联系. EEOF第一模态(EEOF1)的**/负位相代表了3–4月持续加**/减弱的东亚大槽. 进一步分析指出EEOF1与北大西洋地区的偶极型海温(SST)模态和热带印度洋SST异常密切相关. 北大西洋的偶极型SST模态(一个中心位于纽芬兰岛以东, 另一个位于百慕大以东)能够持续地激发出Rossby波列影响3–4月东亚大槽. 在3–4月, 热带印度洋SST异常能够改变Walker环流, 影响热带西太**洋的大气环流, 进一步影响东亚大槽的南部. 除了SST, 东北亚雪盖能够改变局地热力条件, 从而有利于3–4月东亚大槽异常维持. 这三个影响因子基本上相互独立, 从而能够较好地解释EEOF1的变异特征. 此外, 这些影响因子的信号还能够追溯到前期2月, 是3–4月东亚大槽变异预测的潜在信息来源.
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This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41825010 and 42005024).
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Article Highlights
• A significant and robust relationship exists between the March and April EAT variations.
• The leading mode of the month-to-month EAT variation features a persistent mode of the EAT anomaly in March–April.
• SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean and Northeast Asian snow cover variation can cause persistent EAT anomalies in March–April.
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Yu, S., Sun, J. Persistent Variations in the East Asian Trough from March to April and the Possible Mechanism. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 737–753 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3024-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3024-7