Abstract
Recently, climate change research in ecology has embraced the use of large-scale climate indices in long-term, retrospective studies. In most instances, these indices are related to large-scale teleconnection and atmospheric patterns of which over a dozen have been identified. Although most of these relate to different geographical areas, many are related and interact. Consequently, even the simple task of selecting one to use in ecological research has become complicated, despite our ability to disentangle the results from analyses involving large-scale climate indices. Leaning upon recent reviews of the definition and functioning of large-scale climate indices, as well as reviews on the relationship between these and concomitant changes in ecological variables, we focus here on the usefulness of large-scale climate indices in different aspects of climate change ecology. By providing a general framework for using climate indices, we illustrate the potential advantages of their utility by integrating three case histories focusing on two groups of evolutionarily distinct organisms: birds and mammals.
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs10144-004-0176-x/MediaObjects/s10144-004-0176-xflb1.gif)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs10144-004-0176-x/MediaObjects/s10144-004-0176-xflb2.gif)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs10144-004-0176-x/MediaObjects/s10144-004-0176-xflb3.gif)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs10144-004-0176-x/MediaObjects/s10144-004-0176-xfmb4.gif)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs10144-004-0176-x/MediaObjects/s10144-004-0176-xfmc5.gif)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs10144-004-0176-x/MediaObjects/s10144-004-0176-xfmb6.gif)
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adams LG, Dale BW (1998) Reproductive performance of female Alaskan caribou. J Wildl Manage 62:1184–1195
Albon SD, Clutton-Brock TH, Guiness F (1987) Early development and population dynamics in red deer. II. Density-independent effects and cohort variation. J Anim Ecol 56:69–81
Begon M, Harper H, Townsend CR (1996) Ecology—individuals, populations and communities, 3rd edn. Blackwell, Oxford
Bjørnstad ON, Stenseth NC, Saitoh T, Lingjærde OC (1998) Map** the regional transition to cyclicity in Clethrionomys rufocanus: spectral densities and functional data analysis. Res Popul Ecol 40:77–84
Both C, Visser ME (2001) Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant. Nature 411:296–298
Clutton-Brock TH, Pemberton J (2004) Soay sheep: dynamics and selection in an island population. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Clutton-Brock TH, Albon S, Guiness F (1982) Red deer: behaviour and ecology of two sexes. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
Cramp S (ed) (1985) Handbook of the birds of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa: the birds of the Western Palearctic. Terns to woodpeckers, vol 4. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Darwin C (1859) On the origin of species. Murray, Edinburgh
Dickinson R (1986) The climate system and modelling of future climate. In: Bolin B, Doos BR, Jaeger J, Warrick RA (eds) The greenhouse effect, climate change and ecosystems. Wiley, New York, pp 207–270
Drinkwater KF, Belgrano A, Borja A, Conversi A, Edwards M, Greene CH, Ottersen G, Pershing AJ, Walker H (2003) The response of marine ecosystems to climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (eds) The North Atlantic Oscillation—climatic significance and environmental impact. American Geophysical Union, Washington, pp 211–234
Forchhammer MC (2000) Timing of foetal growth spurts can explain sex ratio variation in polygynous mammals. Ecol Lett 3:1–4
Forchhammer MC (2001) Terrestrial ecological responses to climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. In: Jørgensen AMK, Fenger J, Halsnæs K (eds) Climate change research. GAD, Copenhagen, pp 219–236
Forchhammer MC, Asferg T (2000) Invading parasites cause a structural shift in red fox dynamics. Proc R Soc London B 267:779–786
Forchhammer MC, Post E, Stenseth NC (1998a) Breeding phenology and climate. Nature 391:29–30
Forchhammer MC, Stenseth NC, Post E, Langvatn R (1998b) Population dynamics of Norwegian red deer: density dependence and climatic variation. Proc R Soc London B 265:341–350
Forchhammer MC, Clutton-Brock TH, Lindström J, Albon SD (2001) Climate and population density induce long-term cohort variation in a northern ungulate. J Anim Ecol 70:721–729
Forchhammer MC, Post E, Stenseth NC (2002a) North Atlantic Oscillation timing of long- and short-distance migration. J Anim Ecol 71:1002–1014
Forchhammer MC, Post E, Stenseth NC, Boertmann DM (2002b) Long-term responses in arctic ungulate dynamics to changes in climatic and trophic processes. Popul Ecol 44:113–120
Hanawa K (1995) Southward penetration of the Oyashio water system and the wintertime condition of midlatitude westerlies over the North Pacific. Bull Hokkaido Natl Fish Res Inst 59:103–120
Hurrell J (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676–679
Hurrell J (1996) Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere. Geophys Res Lett 23:665–668
Hurrell J, Van Loon H (1997) Decadal variations in the climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Change 36:310–326
Hurrell J, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (2003) The North Atlantic Oscillation—climate significance and environmental impact. American Geophysical Union, Washington
Kushnir Y (1999) Europe’s winter prospects. Nature 398:289–291
Lamp PJ, Peppler RA (1987) North Atlantic Oscillation: concept and an application. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 68:1218–1225
Lodwick GD, Whittle JA (1970) A technique for automatic contouring of field survey data. Aust Comp J 2:104–109
Maxwell B (1992) Arctic climate: potential for change under global warming. In: Chapin FS III, et al (eds) Arctic ecosystems in a changing climate, Academic, New York,pp 11–34
Maxwell B (1997) Recent climatic patterns in the Arctic. In: Oechel W, et al (eds) Global change and arctic terrestrial systems. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 21–46
Milner JM, Elston DA, Albon SD (1999) Estimating the contributions of population density and climatic fluctuations to interannual variation in survival of Soay sheep. J Anim Ecol 68:1235–1247
Muus B, Salomonsen F, Vibe C (1990) Grønlands Fauna (in Danish). Gyldendal, Copenhagen
Mysterud A, Stenseth NC, Yoccoz NG, Ottersen G, Langvatn R (2003) The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (eds) The North Atlantic Oscillation—climatic significance and environmental impact. American Geophysical Union, Washington, pp 235–262
Oechel WC, Callaghan T, Gilmanov T, Holten JI, Maxwell B, Molau U, Sveinbjörnsson B (1997) Global change and the Arctic terrestrial ecosystem. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York
Olesen CR, Thing H, Aastrup P (1994) Growth of wild muskoxen under two nutritional regimes in Greenland. Rangifer 14:3–10
Ottersen G, Stenseth NC (2001) Atlantic governs oceanographic and ecological variability in the Barents Sea. Limnol Oceanogr 46:1774–1780
Post E (2004) Time lags in terrestrial and marine environments. In: Stenseth NC (ed) Ecological effects of climate variations in the North Atlantic. Oxford University Press, Oxford (in press)
Post E, Forchhammer MC (2001) Pervasive influence of large-scale climate in the dynmics of a terrestrial vertebrate community. BMC Ecol 1:5
Post E, Forchhammer MC (2002) Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate. Nature 420:168–171
Post E, Stenseth NC (1999) Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates. Ecology 80:1322–1339
Post E, Stenseth NC, Langvatn R, Fromentin JM (1997) Global climate change and phenotypic variation among red deer cohorts. Proc R Soc London B 264:1317–1324
Post E, Peterson RO, Stenseth NC, McLaren BE (1999a) Ecosystem consequences of wolf behavioural response to climate. Nature 401:905–907
Post E, Forchhammer MC, Stenseth NC, Langvatn R (1999b) Extrinsic modification of vertebrate sex ratios by climatic variation. Am Nat 154:194–204
Post E, Langvatn R, Forchhammer MC, Stenseth NC (1999c) Environmental variation shapes sexual dimorphism in red deer. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 96:4467–4471
Post E, Forchhammer MC, Stenseth NC, Callaghan TV (2001) The timing of life history events in a changing climate. Proc R Soc London B 268:15–23
Roby DD, Thing H (1985) Behaviour of the West Greenland caribou during a population decline. Holarct Ecol 8:77–87
Saitoh T, Takahashi K (1998) The role of vole populations in prevalence of the parasite (Ecghinococcus multilocularis) in foxes. Res Popul Ecol 40:97–105
Saitoh T, Stenseth NC, Bjørnstad ON (1998) The population dynamics of the vole Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan. Res Popul Ecol 40:61–76
Saitoh T, Stenseth NC, Viljugrein H, Kittilsen MO (2003) Mechanisms of density dependence in fluctuating vole populations: deducing annual density dependence from seasonal processes. Popul Ecol 45:165–173
Sapporo District Meteorological Office (1991) The climate in Hokkaido (in Japanese). Nihon Kisho-kyokai, Sapporo
Schlesinger ME, Ramankutty N (1994) An oscillation in the global climate system of the period 65–70 years. Nature 367:723–726
Stearns SC (1992) The evolution of life histories. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Stenseth NC, Saitoh T (eds) (1998) The population ecology of the grey-sided vole Clethrionomys rufocanus. Res Popul Ecol 40:1–158
Stenseth NC, Bjørnstad ON, Saitoh T (1996) A gradient from stable to cyclic populations of Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan. Proc R Soc London B 263:1117–1126
Stenseth NC, Bjørnstad ON, Saitoh T (1998) Seasonal forcing on the dynamics of Clethrionomys rufocanus: modeling geographic gradients in population dynamics. Res Popul Ecol 40:85–95
Stenseth NC, Chan K-S, Tong H, Boonstra R, Boutin S, Krebs CJ, Post E, O’Donoghue M, Yoccoz NG, Forchhammer MC, Hurrell JW (1999) Common dynamic structure of Canada lynx populations within three climatic regions. Science 285:1071–1073
Stenseth NC, Mysterud A, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Chan KS, Lima M (2002) Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science 297:1292–1296
Stenseth NC, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Mysterud A, Lima M, Chan K-C, Yoccoz NG, Ådlandsvik B (2003) Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond. Proc R Soc London B 270:2087–2096
Straile D, Livingstone DM, Weyhenmeyer GA, George DG (2003) The response of freshwater ecosystems to climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (eds) The North Atlantic Oscillation—climatic significance and environmental impact. American Geophysical Union, Washington, pp 263–279
Trenberth KE (1997) The Definition of El Niño. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2771–2777
Trenberth KE, Hurrell JW (1994) Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim Dyn 9:303–319
Turchin P, Lorio PL, Taylor AD, Billings RF (1991) Why do populations of southern pine beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) fluctuate? Environ Entomol 20:401–409
Venables WN, Ripley BD (1999) Modern applied statistics with S-plus, 3rd edn. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York
Visbeck MH, Hurrell JW, Polvani L, Cullen M (2001) The North Atlantic Oscillation: past, present, and future. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 98:12876–12877
Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin JM, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389–395
Weladji RB, Holand Ø (2003) Sex ratio variation in reindeer Rangifer tarandus: a test of the extrinsic modification hypothesis. Wildl Biol 9:29–36
Yoneda M (1983) Influence of red fox predation upon a local population of small rodents. II. Seasonal changes in predation pressure, prey preference and predation effect. Appl Ent Zool 18:1–10
Acknowledgments
We extend our sincere thanks to Takashi Saitoh for allowing us access to the grey-sided vole population data from Hokkaido, Japan. The Forest Product Research Institute of Japan generously provided these data. The valuable comments by Takashi Saitoh and Teiji Sota improved earlier versions of the manuscript considerably.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Forchhammer, M.C., Post, E. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies. Popul Ecol 46, 1–12 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-004-0176-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-004-0176-x