Abstract—
The article discusses issues related to the assessment of import dependence and the results of the import substitution policy in the period 2016–2020. An overview of options for assessing import dependence indicators is provided, and the possibility of using resource and use tables published by Rosstat is substantiated. The main analysis tool is calculated tables of import dependence indicators. In addition, econometric modeling is used to test the significance of individual factors. It has been established that for the vast majority of industries and products in the period 2016–2020, there was no monotonic reduction in import dependence. For approximately half of the types of products, markets and industries under consideration, fluctuations in the share of imports in 2016–2020 were insignificant or not sufficiently stable. At the same time, there is evidence of significant and significant import substitution in certain segments, including those reflecting the efforts of the state. Taking into account the current state of the Russian economy and external conditions of socio-economic development, the currently declared emphasis on ensuring technological sovereignty can be considered justified, but the practical implementation of the import substitution policy in comparison with the period 2016–2020 should be more effective, both in terms of volume and effectiveness of the tools used.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Message from the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation December 4, 2014.
Order of the Government of the Russian Federation of September 30, 2014 No. 1936-r.
Approved By Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 06.06.2020 No. 1512-r.
Project details currently available: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/valuechain/wiod/.
REFERENCES
A. Yu. Apokin, A. A. Gnidchenko, and E. M. Sabel’nikova, “Potential of import substitution and benefits from economic integration: Disaggregated assessments,” Ekonomicheskaya Politika 12 (2), 44–71 (2017). https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2017-2-02
V. K. Faltsman, “Import substitution in the economic sectors of Russia,” Studies on Russian Economic Development 26 (5), 452–459 (2015).
V. K. Faltsman, “Forcing import substitutions in a new geopolitical situation,” Studies on Russian Economic Development 26 (1), 15–21 (2015).
B. A. Zamaraev and T. N. Marshova, “Production capacities of the Russian industry: The potential of import substitution and economic growth,” Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 6, 5–24 (2015). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2015-6-5-24
O. Berezinskaya and A. Vedev, “Dependence of the Russian economy on imports,” Ekonomicheskoe Razvitie Rossii 24 (4), 19–25 (2017).
V. N. Borisov, O. V. Pochukaeva, E. A. Balagurova, and T. G. Orlova, “The role of import substitution in the development of mechanical engineering,” Nauchnye Trudy: Institut Narodnokhozyaistvennogo Prognozirovaniya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 300–323 (2015).
O. V. Pochukaeva and K. G. Pochukaev, “Import substitution in mechanical engineering in conditions of growing demand,” Nauchnye Trudy: Institut Narodnokhozyaistvennogo Prognozirovaniya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 192–209 (2019). https://doi.org/10.29003/m817.sp_ief_ras2019/192-209
A. Shiryaev, “On the import substitution of consumer goods,” Obshchestvo i Ekonomika, No. 11, 99–104 (2016).
D. V. Manturov, G. S. Nikitin, and V. S. Os’makov, “Planning of import substitution in Russian industry: Practice of Russian public administration,” Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 9, 40–49 (2016). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2016-9-40-49
I. E. Frolov and K. K. Lebedev, “Assessing the impact of high-technology exports on the growth rate and structure of the Russian economy,” Studies on Russian Economic Development 18 (5), 490–500 (2007).
A. V. Gotovskii, “The contribution of import substitution to the economic growth of Russia,” Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 4, 58–78 (2021). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-4-58-78
V. N. Borisov, O. V. Pochukaeva, E. A. Balagurova, T. G. Orlova, and K. G. Pochukaev, “Assessment of the competitiveness of mechanical engineering products as a total effect of the dynamics of innovative investment saturation,” Nauchnye Trudy: Institut Narodnokhozyaistvennogo Prognozirovaniya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 294–315 (2017).
O. V. Pochukaeva, E. A. Balagurova, T. G. Orlova, and K. G. Pochukaev, “Active and develo** import substitution in the market of investment equipment,” Nauchnye Trudy: Institut Narodnokhozyaistvennogo Prognozirovaniya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 210–227 (2019). https://doi.org/10.29003/m818.sp_ief_ras2019/210-227
L. A. Strizhkova, “The use of the input-output tables in assessing the dependence of the Russian economy on imports and import substitution processes,” Voprosy Statistiki, No. 5, 3–22 (2016).
L. I. Tishina, “The import dependence of the Russian economy on manufacturing products in 2011–2015,” Rossiiskii Ekonomicheskii Internet-Zhurnal, No. 2 (2018). https://www.e-rej.ru/articles/2018/tishina.pdf.
Import Substitution in the Russian Economy: Yesterday and Tomorrow. Analitic Report of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Ed. by Ya. I. Kuz’minov, Yu. V. Simachev, M. G. Kuzyk, A. A. Fedyunina, A. B. Zhulin, M. N. Glukhova, A. N. Klepach (Vysshaya Shkola Ekonomiki, Moscow, 2023) [in Russian]. https://doi.org/10.17323/978-5-7598-2755-9
A. M. Kalinin, S. S. Koroteev, A. A. Krupin, and A. V. Nefedov, “Technological import dependence of the Russian economy: An assessment using input-output tables,” Studies on Russian Economic Development 32 (1), 52–58 (2021).
N. A. Moiseev, I. A. Vnukov, and P. O. Sokerin, “Assessment of the effects of once personal options for import substitution by the input-output method on the example of the Russian Federation,” Ekonomika i Matematicheskie Metody 59 (1), 30–47 (2023). https://doi.org/10.31857/S042473880024869-4
E. B. Lenchuk, “Technological modernization as a basis for the anti-sanctions policy,” Studies on Russian Economic Development 34 (4), 464–472 (2023).
O. Berezinskaya, “National currency and the dependence of the Russian economy on imports,” Ekonomicheskaya Politika 10 (1), 112–125 (2015).
Funding
This work was supported by ongoing institutional funding. No additional grants to carry out or direct this particular research were obtained.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
The author of this work declares that he has no conflicts of interest.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note.
Pleiades Publishing remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kalinin, A.M. Import Dependence and Import Substitution in Russia: Assessment Based on Resource and Use Tables. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 35, 171–179 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700724020072
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700724020072