Abstract
Anthropogenic climate warming is predicted to increase the intensity of global tropical cyclones (TCs) on decadal timescales, known as the ‘temperature-TC intensity’ paradigm. However, no proxy is currently available to directly quantify TC intensity in the northwestern Pacific region over centennial to millennial timescales. Here, we reconstruct the intensity of past TCs inferred from event-beds detected in two sedimentary systems in eastern China spanning approximately 1910 to 645 yr BP using an instrumental-calibrated technique, thereby encompassing a sufficiently wide range of temperatures to test the paradigm in the time domain. Intriguingly, our two intensity indices, based on flooding depth and wind speed, provide the initial quantitative evidence that TC intensity in eastern China has been anomalously weak since around 1485 ± 45 yr BP, with a reduction of approximately 30 ± 8% in intensity, despite no concurrent temperature shift. This reduction appears to have been pre-conditioned by a combined influence of a weaker El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and an increased level of Saharan dust. We suggest that the magnitudes of these factors may have crossed a tip** point and have not reverted to their pre-shift levels since that time, resulting in their impact on TC intensity exceeding that of temperature by triggering changes in the oceanic and atmospheric state within the tropical Pacific region where TCs originate.
Similar content being viewed by others
Introduction
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most catastrophic atmospheric events, characterized by strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surges. Intense TCs cause devastating losses to human life and property, particularly in the coastal regions of the most active TC basins, such as the northwestern Pacific and North Atlantic1,2,3. The question of how TC activity will respond to future climate warming is increasingly drawing the attention of science community, although significant uncertainty still remains (e.g., refs. 4,5,6,7). Observational records (e.g., refs. 8,9,75. Interestingly, all three factors that we proposed to influence the shift of TC intensity belong to these tip** elements of the climate76,77,78. It is suggested that ENSO, AMOC, and Saharan dust may have crossed a similar tip** point around 1485 ± 45 yr BP, as their magnitudes have not returned to their pre-shift levels since then. This may have resulted in their influence on TC intensity exceeding that of temperature by triggering changes in the oceanic and atmospheric state within the tropical Pacific the region where TCs originate. These findings highlight the importance of understanding TC intensity variability over long time scales and under different climatic conditions. Further research is needed to evaluate TC intensity variability at different time scales in different basins and globally, as well as its connection with climate tip** elements. Additionally, the instrumental-calibrated technique offers the possibility of predicting future trends in TC activity under changing climate conditions. It enables the assessment of changes in TC activity from a long-term perspective, allowing for the discrimination between natural variability and anthropogenic changes in TC activity. We expect this technique to serve as a starting point for more accurate and quantitative analysis of paleotempestology and other paleoclimatology on a global scale.
Methods
Study site and field sampling
The study focuses on the Jiangsu tidal flats and Zhejiang-Fujian mud belt (Fig. 1), located on the eastern coast of China, as these areas frequently intersect with TC paths. Core ZM01 (28°41.4′ N, 122°24.6′ E) is 5.08-m-long core was collected from the Zhejiang-Fujian mud belt in 2018 CE (Fig. 1a). Core YC01 (33°23.2′N, 120°12.3′E) and core SA (33°34.7′N, 120°33.3′E) are 39.75-m-long and 1.93-m-long cores, respectively, recovered from the Jiangsu coastal plain and modern tidal flats in 2014 CE (Fig. 1b). Additionally, two sections of the Jiangsu modern tidal flats (Fig. 1b) were surveyed in 2008 CE (section P1) and 2009 CE (section P2) using a Magellan Z-MAX GPS-RTK (a differential GPS system with a dynamic accuracy of 10 mm ± 0.5 ppm), resulting in high-precision positional data. Thirty-seven surficial sediment samples were also collected along these two sections.
Laboratory analysis
Cores ZM01, YC01, and SA were sliced into intervals of 1 cm, 4 cm, and 1 cm, respectively. All subsamples from the three cores and thirty-seven surficial sediments were measured for grain size using a laser Malvern Mastersizer 2000 with a duplicate measurement error of less than 3%. Grain size parameters were then calculated from the distribution curves using moment statistics. The age model for cores ZM01, YC01, and SA, presented by Yang et al.30,45, were established using two isotopic dating methods. Twenty-one and thirteen samples from the top of core ZM01 and core SA were selected for 210Pb analysis to quantify the sedimentation rate. The centennial-to-millennial scale chronologies of cores ZM01 and YC01 were constrained using eight and seven 14C-Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (14C AMS) dates, respectively. The top 1 m of sediments in core YC01 consists of yellowish-brown sandy silt, belonging to the supratidal zone, which was insensitive to recording TC events and therefore was not included for analysis.
Determination of past TC intensity
Sedimentary systems in shelf-coastal environments, such as tidal flats and shelf mud belts, require different methods to delimit the intensity of TC-event-beds79. To address this issue and enable direct quantitative comparisons between instrumental and long-term TC records, we have developed two TC intensity indices for the Jiangsu tidal flats and Zhejiang-Fujian mud belt using a technique that combines instrumental and sedimentary records. This technique allows us to calibrate long-term records of past TC intensity against high-resolution instrumental TC records.
Jiangsu tidal flats
For the Jiangsu tidal flats, Yang et al.30 presented a 2 kyr continuous activity record of TCs by identifying 36 coarse-grained event beds in core YC01. However, this work focused on revealing the frequency of TC-event-beds without quantifying the intensity of individual event beds. The magnitude of past TC-event-beds can be reproduced using a simple A-S model31,80,81. The A-S model is based on the balance between longitudinal sediment transport by the flow and gravity-driven sediment settling through the water column. It assumes that the distance that grains are advected longitudinally from the top of the flow to the bed depends on flow depth, flow velocity, and settling velocity82:
where h is flow depth during TC-induced flooding, ws is the still–water particle settling velocity, t is settling time, and xL is the advection length scale for particles of a given grain size. U is depth-averaged flow velocity and can be calculated using the equation in Moore et al.82. For a given grain size and shape, ws can be calculated using equation in Ferguson and Church83. In this analysis, we determined the settling velocity for the D90 size class (defined as the grain size for which 90% of sample has smaller grain sizes) as it best reflects the maximum grain size transported by flooding events associated with TCs. The availability of coarse sand on the offshore sand ridges84 presumably allows the assumption that D90 is controlled by flow.
The A-S model depends on the supercritical flow occurring along the backside of a barrier (i.e., Froude number Fr = U/(gh)0.5 = 1, g is acceleration due to gravity), but could theoretically apply to at any transition to supercritical flow, including tidal flat environments42,85. Woodruff et al.31 assumed a constant xL during storm surges to yield a unique solution for quantifying the flow depth over a barrier during flooding. This assumption is appropriate for environments where the topographic or bathymetric changes are insignificant over time, such as coastal lagoons and lakes32,40,42. However, in meso- to macro-tidal settings like Jiangsu tidal flats, water depths are variable, and sediment grain sizes differ in different parts of the tidal flats86. Therefore, a constant xL is not suitable for calculating the flow depth during flooding in different parts of the tidal flats. As a result, Eq. 1 requires an additional water depth constraint to estimate the flow depth during flooding for different parts of the tidal flats (Supplementary Fig. 2).
To enhance the A-S model, we hypothesized that transport distance is dependent on water depth, as different parts of the tidal flats have varying xL. By analyzing the TC-event-beds identified in core SA and the corresponding instrumented flow depths during TC-induced flooding87,88, we were able to determine the transport distances for different parts of the Jiangsu tidal flats. Taking into account sea level variations, we can reconstruct the flow depth-based TC intensity (TCI_fd, m) recorded in core YC01 using the improved A-S model that incorporates different transport distances. The model can be expressed as follows:
Zhejiang-Fujian mud belt
Yang et al.45 developed a simple yet effective method for core ZM01 from the Zhejiang-Fujian mud belt by correlating sediment grain size with instrumental records of TC-induced wind speed. By combining the instrumental and sedimentary records, they discovered a significant and positive correlation (R = 0.86, P < 0.001, n = 35) between the content of the sensitive coarse-grained fraction (i.e., >63 μm fraction; sand content) in core ZM01 and the annual maximum wind speed of TCs that impacted the Zhejiang coast (120–124°E, 26–30°N) from 1984 to 2018 CE (Fig. 2a). However, the reconstruction of Yang et al.45 based only on the sand content cannot directly quantify the intensity changes of TCs over the last 2000 years. To address this issue, we developed an index called the wind speed-based TC intensity index (TCI_ws, m/s), which is based on the relationship between the sand content and TC wind speed. The index can be expressed as follows:
Data availability
All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are available at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24258676.v1.
References
Zhang, Q., Wu, L. & Liu, Q. Tropical cyclone damages in China 1983–2006. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc 90, 489–496 (2009).
Peduzzi, P. et al. Global trends in tropical cyclone risk. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 289–294 (2012).
Coronese, M., Lamperti, F., Keller, K., Chiaromonte, F. & Roventini, A. Evidence for sharp increase in the economic damages of extreme natural disasters. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 21,450–21,455 (2019).
Knutson, T. R. et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat. Geosci 3, 157–163 (2010).
Emanuel, K. A. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 12219–12224 (2013).
Bacmeister, J. et al. Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high–resolution climate model. Clim. Change 146, 547–560 (2018).
Chand, S. S. et al. Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 655–661 (2022).
Emanuel, K. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436, 686–688 (2005).
Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A. & Chang, H. R. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309, 1844–1846 (2005).
Mei, W., **e, S. P., Primeau, F., McWilliams, J. C. & Pasquero, C. Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures. Sci. Adv 1, e1500014 (2015).
Bender, M. A. et al. Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 327, 454–458 (2010).
Knutson, T. R. et al. Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty–first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios. J. Clim. 28, 7203–7224 (2015).
Goldenberg, S. B., Landsea, C. W., Mestas–Nuñez, A. M. & Gray, W. M. The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science 293, 474–479 (2001).
Chan, J. C. Comment on” Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment”. Science 311, 1713–1713 (2006).
Klotzbach, P. J. et al. Trends in global tropical cyclone activity: 1990–2021. Geophys. Res. Lett 49, e2021GL095774 (2022).
Landsea, C. W., Harper, B. A., Hoarau, K. & Knaff, J. A. Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science 313, 452–454 (2006).
Knutson, T. et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: Part I: Detection and attribution. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc 100, 1987–2007 (2019).
Knutson, T. et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: Part II: projected response to anthropogenic warming. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc 101, E303–E322 (2020).
Liu, K. B. & Fearn, M. L. Lake–sediment record of late Holocene hurricane activities from coastal Alabama. Geology 21, 793–796 (1993).
Nott, J. & Hayne, M. High frequency of ‘super–cyclones’ along the Great Barrier Reef over the past 5,000 years. Nature 413, 508–512 (2001).
Donnelly, J. P. & Woodruff, J. D. Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African monsoon. Nature 447, 465–468 (2007).
Chen, H. F. et al. Strengthening of paleo‐typhoon and autumn rainfall in Taiwan corresponding to the Southern Oscillation at late Holocene. J. Quat. Sci 27, 964–972 (2012).
Chen, H. F. et al. China’s historical record when searching for tropical cyclones corresponding to Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts over the past 2 kyr. Clim. Past 15, 279–289 (2019).
Yue, Y. et al. 3500–year western Pacific storm record warns of additional storm activity in a warming warm pool. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 521, 57–71 (2019).
Green, A. N. et al. Stormier mid–Holocene southwest Indian Ocean due to poleward trending tropical cyclones. Nat. Geosci 15, 60–66 (2022).
Woodruff, J. D., Donnelly, J. P. & Okusu, A. Exploring typhoon variability over the mid–to–late Holocene: evidence of extreme coastal flooding from Kamikoshiki, Japan. Quat. Sci. Rev 28, 1774–1785 (2009).
Nott, J. & Forsyth, A. Punctuated global tropical cyclone activity over the past 5,000 years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, 14703 (2012).
Oliva, F., Viau, A. E., Peros, M. C. & Bouchard, M. Paleotempestology database for the western North Atlantic basin. Holocene 28, 1664–1671 (2018).
Tao, S. et al. Poleward shift in tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific during warm periods: Past and future. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol 36, e2021PA004367 (2021).
Yang, Y. et al. A late Holocene shift of typhoon activity recorded by coastal sedimentary archives in eastern China. Sedimentology 69, 954–969 (2022).
Woodruff, J. D., Donnelly, J. P., Mohrig, D. & Geyer, W. R. Reconstructing relative flooding intensities responsible for hurricane–induced deposits from Laguna Playa Grande, Vieques, Puerto Rico. Geology 36, 391–394 (2008).
Wallace, D. J. & Anderson, J. B. Evidence of similar probablility of intense hurricane strikes for the Gulf of Mexico over the late Holocene. Geology 38, 511–514 (2010).
Brandon, C. M., Woodruff, J. D., Lane, D. P. & Donnelly, J. P. Tropical cyclone wind speed constraints from resultant storm surge deposition: a 2500 year reconstruction of hurricane activity from St. Marks, FL. Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst 14, 2993–3008 (2013).
Zhou, X. et al. Enhanced tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific during warm periods over the last two millennia. Geophys. Res. Lett 46, 9145–9153 (2019).
Liu, K. B. Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future. (eds. Murnane R. J., Liu K. B.) p. 13-57 (Columbia University Press, 2004).
Nott, J. Palaeotempestology: the study of prehistoric tropical cyclones—a review and implications for hazard assessment. Environ. Int. 30, 433–447 (2004).
Donnelly, J. P. et al. Climate forcing of unprecedented intense‐hurricane activity in the last 2000 years. Earth’s Future 3, 49–65 (2015).
Liu, K. B. & Fearn, M. L. Reconstruction of prehistoric landfall frequencies of catastrophic hurricanes in northwestern Florida from lake sediment records. Quat. Res. 54, 238–245 (2000).
Nott, J. F. Intensity of prehistoric tropical cyclones. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 108, 4212 (2003).
Brandon, C. M., Woodruff, J. D., Donnelly, J. P. & Sullivan, R. M. How unique was Hurricane Sandy? Sedimentary reconstructions of extreme flooding from New York Harbor. Sci. Rep 4, 1–9 (2014).
Hong, I. et al. Sedimentological characteristics of the 2015 tropical cyclone pam overwash sediments from Vanuatu, South Pacific. Mar. Geol. 396, 205–214 (2018).
Bregy, J. C., Wallace, D. J., Minzoni, R. T. & Cruz, V. J. 2500–year paleotempestological record of intense storms for the northern Gulf of Mexico, United States. Mar. Geol. 396, 26–42 (2018).
Gao, S. et al. Holocene sedimentary systems on a broad continental shelf with abundant river input: process–product relationships. Geol. Soc. Spec. Publ. 429, 231–268 (2016).
Yang, R. & **e, Z. R. Sea–level changes along the east coast of China over the last 20,000 years. Oceanol. Limnol. Sin. 15, 1–13 (1984). (In Chinese).
Yang, Y. et al. Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone activity enhanced by increased Asian dust emissions during the Little Ice Age. Nat. Commun. 13, 1712 (2022).
Inclan, C. & Tiao, G. C. Use of cumulative sums of squares for retrospective detection of changes of variance. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 89, 913–923 (1994).
Mei, W. & **e, S. P. Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s. Nat. Geosci. 9, 753–757 (2016).
Ren, M. E., Zhang, R. S., Yang, J. H. & Zhang, D. C. The influence of storm tide on mud plain coast-with special reference to Jiangsu Province. Mar. Geol. Quat. Geol. 3, 1–24 (1983).
Emanuel, K. A. The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature 326, 483–485 (1987).
Yan, Q. et al. Enhanced intensity of global tropical cyclones during the mid-Pliocene warm period. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 12963–12967 (2016).
Wu, L., Wang, B. & Braun, S. A. Implications of tropical cyclone power dissipation index. Int. J. Climatol. 28, 727–731 (2008).
Pausata, F. S. Tropical cyclone activity enhanced by Sahara greening and reduced dust emissions during the African Humid Period. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 6221–6226 (2017).
Toomey, M. R., Korty, R. L., Donnelly, J. P., van Hengstum, P. J. & Curry, W. B. Increased hurricane frequency near Florida during Younger Dryas Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown. Geology 45, 1047–1050 (2017).
Hayes, C. T. & Wallace, D. J. Exploring records of Saharan dust transport and hurricanes in the western North Atlantic over the Holocene. Quat. Sci. Rev 205, 1–9 (2019).
Dang, H. et al. Pacific warm pool subsurface heat sequestration modulated Walker circulation and ENSO activity during the Holocene. Sci. Adv 6, eabc0402 (2020).
Conroy, J. L., Overpeck, J. T., Cole, J. E., Shanahan, T. M. & Steinitz-Kannan, M. Holocene changes in eastern tropical Pacific climate inferred from a Galápagos lake sediment record. Quat. Sci. Rev. 27, 1166–1180 (2008).
Lippold, J., Rheinberger, S. & Jaccard, S. L. Constraining the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the Holocene. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 11338–11346 (2019).
Spooner, P. T. et al. Exceptional 20th century ocean circulation in the northeast Atlantic. Geophys. Res. Lett 47, e2020GL087577 (2020).
Mulitza, S. et al. Increase in African dust flux at the onset of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region. Nature 466, 226–228 (2010).
Tierney, J. E. & DeMenocal, P. B. Abrupt shifts in Horn of Africa hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum. Science 342, 843–846 (2013).
Nguetsop, V. F., Servant-Vildary, S. & Servant, M. Late Holocene climatic changes in west Africa, a high resolution diatom record from equatorial Cameroon. Quat. Sci. Rev. 23, 591–609 (2004).
Chan, J. C. Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon. Weather Rev 113, 599–606 (1985).
Camargo, S. J. & Sobel, A. H. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J. Clim. 18, 2996–3006 (2005).
Lin, I. I. et al. ENSO and tropical cyclones. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a changing climate. Geophys. Monogr. 253, 377–408 (2020).
Zheng, Z. W., Lin, I. I., Wang, B., Huang, H.-C. & Chen, C. H. A long neglected damper in the El Niño–typhoon relationship: a ‘Gaia-like’process. Sci. Rep. 5, 11103 (2015).
Zhang, R. & Delworth, T. L. Simulated tropical response to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J. Clim. 18, 1853–1860 (2005).
Kang, I. S., No, H. H. & Kucharski, F. ENSO amplitude modulation associated with the mean SST changes in the tropical central Pacific induced by Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. J. Clim. 27, 7911–7920 (2014).
Zhang, R. et al. A review of the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in Atlantic multidecadal variability and associated climate impacts. Rev. Geophys. 57, 316–375 (2019).
Zhang, H., McFarquhar, G. M., Saleeby, S. M. & Cotton, W. R. Impacts of Saharan dust as CCN on the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L14812 (2007).
Liang, Z., Ding, J., Fei, J., Cheng, X. & Huang, X. Direct/indirect effects of aerosols and their separate contributions to Typhoon Lupit (2009): eyewall versus peripheral rainbands. Sci. China Earth Sci. 64, 2113–2128 (2021).
Liu, Q., Huang, Z., Hu, Z., Dong, Q. & Li, S. Long‐range transport and evolution of Saharan dust over East Asia from 2007 to 2020. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 127, e2022JD036974 (2022).
Bell, G. D. & Chelliah, M. Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multidecadal fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Clim. 19, 590–612 (2006).
Xu, J. et al. Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau. Nat. Commun. 15, 310 (2024).
Liu, Y., Cai, Q., Song, H., An, Z. & Linderholm, H. W. Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Chin. Sci. Bull. 56, 2986–2994 (2011).
Armstrong-McKay, D. I. et al. Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tip** elements. Science 377, eabn7950 (2022).
Lenton, T. M. et al. Tip** elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 1786–1793 (2008).
Kopp, R. E., Shwom, R. L., Wagner, G. & Yuan, J. Tip** elements and climate–economic shocks: pathways toward integrated assessment. Earth’s Future 4, 346–372 (2016).
Wang, S. et al. Mechanisms and impacts of Earth system tip** elements. Rev. Geophys. 61, e2021RG000757 (2023).
Gao, S. & Collins, M. B. Holocene sedimentary systems on continental shelves. Mar. Geol. 352, 268–294 (2014).
Johnson, J. P., Delbecq, K. & Kim, W. Predicting paleohydraulics from storm surge and tsunami deposits: using experiments to improve inverse model accuracy. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 122, 760–781 (2017).
Wang, S., Ge, J., Meadows, M. E. & Wang, Z. Reconstructing a late Neolithic extreme storm event on the southern Yangtze coast, East China, based on sedimentary records and numerical modeling. Mar. Geol. 443, 106687 (2022).
Moore, A. L., Mcadoo, B. G. & Ruffman, A. Landward fining from multiple sources in a sand sheet deposited by the 1929 Grand Banks Tsunami, Newfoundland. Sediment. Geol. 200, 336–346 (2007).
Ferguson, R. I. & Church, M. A simple universal equation for grain settling velocity. J. Sediment. Res. 74, 933–937 (2004).
Wang, Y., Zhang, Y., Zou, X., Zhu, D. & Piper, D. The sand ridge field of the South Yellow Sea: origin by river–sea interaction. Mar. Geol. 291, 132–146 (2012).
Mullarney, J. C. & Henderson, S. M. Hydraulically controlled front trap** on a tidal flat. J. Geophys. Res.: Oceans 116, C04023 (2011).
Reineck H.-E. & Singh I. B. Depositional Sedimentary Environments. 2nd edn. p. 549 (Springer, 1980).
Wang, H., Yao, S. K., Gong, M. S., Wu, H. M. & Shi, S. H. Analysis of data on the storm surge in the yangkou harbor, Jiangsu. Mar. Sci. Bull. 26, 26–32 (2007). (In Chinese).
Yu, F. J., Dong, J. & X., Ye, L. Collection of storm surge disasters historical data in China 1949–2009. p. 743 (China Ocean Press, 2015). (In Chinese)
Oppo, D. W., Rosenthal, Y. & Linsley, B. K. 2,000-year-long temperature andhydrology reconstructions from the indo-pacific warm pool. Nature 460, 1113–1116 (2009).
Liu, Z. et al. Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years. Nature 515, 550–553 (2014).
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42276050-Y.Y., 41706096-L.Z., 41530962-S.G.), the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (No. SKLEC-KF202302-Y. Y), and the Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Coastal Salt Marsh Ecosystems and Resources (No. KLCSMERMNR2021001-Y. Y). David J. W. Piper (Geological Survey of Canada) and Min Xu reviewed and clarified the final manuscript in 2023. The authors thank Yangyang Zhao, Zhuochen Han, Qingguang Zhu, Qijun Yin, Qiao Ai, Peipei Zhao, Sheng**g Liu, Chengfen Xue, Zhaoxiang Yang for their help with field sampling and laboratory analysis. The authors thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments, which improved the paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Y.Y., L.Z., and S.G. designed the study, wrote, and revised the paper. V.M. contributed to the development of the idea and the revision of the paper. J.H.G., Y.G., Y.P.W., and J.J.J. made suggestions for improving the quality of the paper. All the authors discussed and reviewed the paper prior to submission.
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary information
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
About this article
Cite this article
Yang, Y., Maselli, V., Zhou, L. et al. Anomalously weak intensity of tropical cyclones striking eastern China over the past two millennia. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7, 127 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00656-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00656-8
- Springer Nature Limited