Abstract
This article analyses risk factors for criminal recidivism of young offenders in Argentina, compared with studies in other countries; 65 recidivists are compared with 59 one-time offenders. Effect sizes were calculated for 24 risk factors for recidivism. Seven groups of risk factors were compared: (a) demographic information, (b) offence history, (c) family factors, (d) educational factors, (e) substance use history, (f) social factors, and (g) community and societal influences. Large effects on recidivism for all risk factors were found in the present study, in comparison with other countries. These findings are explained within the socio-cultural context of Argentina. Forward stepwise logistic regression analyses were carried out in order to investigate independent predictors, showing that age at first contact with the law, low school achievement, poor school attendance, substance abuse, delinquent peers and community disorganization were the most important independent predictors of juvenile recidivism in the present study. Criminal history and delinquent peers were also important predictors in other reviews of the predictors of reoffending.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
This study was part of a larger investigation (see Orlando, 2020).
References
Andrews, D., & Bonta, J. (2010). The psychology of criminal conduct (5th ed.). Matthew Bender & Company Inc, LexisNexis Group.
Argentine Social Debt’s Observatory of the Catholic University. (2004). Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Outstanding progress and structural inequalities in human and social development in urban Argentina. Buenos Aires.
Argentine Social Debt’s Observatory of the Catholic University. (2009). Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Argentina’s Social Debt: 2004–2008. Human and Social development in Argentina on the threshold of the bicentennial. Buenos Aires.
Argentine Social Debt’s Observatory of the Catholic University. (2013). Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Vulnerability to crime and feeling of insecurity in large urban areas of Argentina: Factors that influence the risk of victimization and trigger the fear of crime. Buenos Aires.
Argentine Social Debt’s Observatory of the Catholic University. (2015). Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Increase in drug trafficking in neighbourhoods, severe addiction problems in families and populations at risk. Buenos Aires.
Argentine Social Debt’s Observatory of the Catholic University. (2016). Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Barometer of Drug Trafficking and Addictions in Argentina. 2010–2016 Bicentennial Series. Report Nº 3, 2016. Buenos Aires.
Argentine Social Debt’s Observatory of the Catholic University. (2017a). Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Job insecurity and income. Incidence of the informal sector of the productive structure. 2010–2016. Buenos Aires.
Argentine Social Debt’s Observatory of the Catholic University. (2017b). Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Citizen security in urban Argentina (2010–2016). Progress report 1. Buenos Aires.
Argentine Social Debt’s Observatory of the Catholic University. (2018). Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Structural stagnation, chronic poverty and social inequalities in urban Argentina (2010–2018) Summary document. Buenos Aires: UCA.
Argentine Social Debt’s Observatory of the Catholic University. (2019). Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Work document. Multidimensional poverty based on economic and social rights urban Argentina (2010–2018) Buenos Aires.
Argentine Social Debt’s Observatory of the Catholic University. (2020). Barometer of the Argentine Social Debt. Poverty as deprivation beyond income (2010–2019) Introduction of data based on a rights approach (2010–2019) Buenos Aires.
Assink, M., van der Put, C. E., Hoeve, M., de Vries, S. L. A., Stams, G. J. J. M., & Oort, F. J. (2015). Risk factors for persistent delinquent behavior among juveniles: A meta-analytic review. Clinical Psychology Review, 42, 47–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2015.08.002
Barnoski, R. (2004). Washington State Juvenile Court Assessment Manual, Version 2.1. Washington State Institute for Public Policy.
Baskin, D. R., & Sommers, I. B. (1998). Casualties of Community Disorder: Women’s Careers in Violent Crime. Westview Press.
Basto-Pereira, M., & Farrington, D. P. (2019). Advancing knowledge about lifelong crime sequences. British Journal of Criminology, 59, 354–377.
Basto-Pereira, M., & Farrington, D. P. (2020). Lifelong conviction pathways and self-reported offending: Towards a deeper comprehension of criminal career development. British Journal of Criminology, 60, 285–302. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azz037
Benda, B. B., & Tollett, C. L. (1999). A study of recidivism of serious and persistent offenders among adolescents. Journal of Criminal Justice, 27(2), 111–126.
Bennett, R., & Basiotis, P. (1991). Structural correlates of juvenile property crime: A cross national, time-series analysis. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 28, 262–288.
Bertranou, F., & Casanova, L. (2015). Pathways towards the decent work of young people in Argentina: Contributions of the public policies of education, training for work and social protection. Retrieved from http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/americas/rolima/ilobuenos_aires/documents/publication/wcms_454395.pdf.
Blumstein, A., Farrington, D. P., & Moitra, S. (1985). Delinquency careers: innocents, desisters, and persisters. In M. Tonry & N. Morris (Eds.), Crime and justice (Vol. 6, pp. 187–219). University of Chicago Press.
Bobbio, A., Arbach, K., & Redondo Illescas, S. (2020). Juvenile delinquency risk factors: Individual, social, opportunity or all of these together? International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice, 62, 100388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijlcj.2020.100388
Brown, S. M., & Shillington, A. M. (2017). Childhood adversity and the risk of substance use and delinquency: The role of protective adult relationships. Child Abuse and Neglect, 63, 211–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chiabu.2016.11.006
Buckner, J. C. J., Mezzacappa, E., & Beardslee, W. R. (2003). Characteristics of resilient youths living in poverty: The role of self-regulatory processes. Development and Psychopathology, 15(1), 139–162.
Chassin, L., Mansion, A. D., Nichter, B., & Pandika, D. (2016). Substance use and substance use disorders as risk factors for juvenile offending. In K. Heilbrun, D. DeMatteo, & N. E. S. Goldstein (Eds.), APA handbook of psychology and juvenile justice (pp. 277–305). American Psychological Association. https://doi.org/10.1037/14643-013
Clarke, D. R. (2017). The effect of risk factors on recidivism among juveniles from the perspectives of juvenile justice professionals. ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 79, 1–174.
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Erlbaum.
Cottle, C., Lee, R., & Heilbrun, K. (2001). The prediction of criminal recidivism in juveniles a meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28(3), 367–394.
Creese, B. (2016). An assessment of the English and maths skills levels of prisoners in England. London Review of Education, 14, 13–32.
Dembo, R., Schmeidler, J., Nini-Gough, B., Sue, C. C., Borden, P., & Manning, D. (1998). Predictors of recidivism to a juvenile assessment centre: A three-year study. Journal of Child and Adolescent Substance Abuse, 7, 57–77.
European Commission. (2007). Country Strategy Document. Retrieved from http://www.ec.europa.eu/.../documento-de-estrategia-país-argentina-2007-2014_es.
Farrington, D. P. (1987). Early precursors of frequent offending. In J. Q. Wilson & G. C. Loury (Eds.), From children to citizens. Families, schools, and delinquency prevention (Vol. 3, pp. 27–50). Springer.
Farrington, D. P. (2003). Key results from the first 40 years of the Cambridge study in delinquent development. In T. P. Thornberry & M. D. Krohn (Eds.), Taking stock of delinquency (pp. 137–183). Springer.
Farrington, D. P. (2007). Advancing knowledge about desistance. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 23, 125–134.
Farrington, D. P. (2015). Cross-national comparative research on criminal careers, risk factors, crime and punishment. European Journal of Criminology, 12(4), 386–399. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370815584262
Farrington, D. P., & West, D. J. (1990). The Cambridge study in delinquent development: a long term follow-up of 411 London males. In H.-J. Kerner & G. Kaiser (Eds.), Criminality: Personality, behavior and life history (pp. 115–138). Springer.
Farrington, D. P., Loeber, R., Elliott, D. S., Hawkins, J. D., Kandel, D. B., Klein, M. W., & Tremblay, R. E. (1990a). Advancing knowledge about the onset of delinquency and crime. Advances in Clinical Child Psychology, 13, 283–342. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-9835-6_8
Farrington, D. P., Loeber, R., & Van Kammen, W. B. (1990b). Long-term criminal outcomes of hyperactivity-impulsivity-attention deficit and conduct problems in childhood. In L. N. Robins & M. Rutter (Eds.), Straight and devious pathways from childhood to adulthood (pp. 62–81). Cambridge University Press.
Farrington, D. P., Loeber, R., Yin, Y., & Anderson, S. J. (2002). Are within-individual causes of delinquency the same as between-individual causes? Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 12, 53–68.
Farrington, D. P., Ttofi, M. M., & Coid, J. W. (2009). Development of adolescence limited, Late-onset and persistent offenders from age 8 to age 48. Aggressive Behavior, 35, 150–163.
Farrington, D. P., Ttofi, M. M., Crago, R. V., & Coid, J. W. (2015). Intergenerational similarities in risk factors for offending. Journal of Developmental and Life Course Criminology, 1(1), 48–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-015-0005-2
Glueck, S., & Glueck, E. (1950). Unraveling Juvenile delinquency. Harvard University Press.
Henggeler, S. W., Melton, G. B., Brondino, M. J., Scherer, D. G., & Hanley, J. H. (1997). Multisystemic therapy with violent and chronic juvenile offenders and their families: The role of treatment fidelity in successful dissemination. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 65(5), 821–833. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-006x.65.5.821
Hoge, R. D. (2001). A case management instrument for use in juvenile justice systems. Juvenile and Family Court Journal, 52(2), 25–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-6988.2001.tb00041.x
Hoge, R. D., Andrews, D. A., & Leschied, A. W. (1996). An investigation of risk and protective factors in a sample of youthful offenders. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 37(4), 419–424. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7610.1996.tb01422.x
Jolliffe, D., & Farrington, D. P. (2006). Development and validation of the Basic Empathy Scale. Journal of Adolescence, 29, 589–611.
Jolliffe, D., Farrington, D. P., Piquero, A. R., MacLeod, J. F., & van de Weijer, S. (2017). Prevalence of life-course-persistent, adolescence-limited, and late-onset offenders: A systematic review of prospective longitudinal studies. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 33, 4–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2017.01.002
Kennedy, T. D., Edmonds, W. A., Millen, D. H., & Detullio, D. (2018). Chronic juvenile offenders: Exploring risk factor models of recidivism. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 1, 20. https://doi.org/10.1177/1541204018770517
Laub, J., & Sampson, R. (2001). Understanding desistance from crime. In M. H. Tonry (Ed.), Crime and justice: A review of research (Vol. 28, pp. 1–69). University of Chicago Press.
Loeber, R., & Dishion, T. (1983). Early predictors of male delinquency: A review. Psychological Bulletin, 94(1), 68–99. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.94.1.68
Loeber, R., & Farrington, D. P. (2012). Transitions from juvenile delinquency to adult crime: Criminal concerns, justice policy, and prevention. Oxford University Press.
Loeber, R., & Le Blanc, M. (1990). Toward a developmental criminology. Crime and Justice, 12, 375–473.
Loeber, R., & Stouthamer-Loeber, M. (1986). Family factors as correlates and predictors of juvenile conduct problems and delinquency. In M. Tonry & N. Morris (Eds.), Crime and justice (Vol. 7, pp. 29–149). University of Chicago Press.
National Institute of Statistics and Censuses. INDEC. (2017). [Household survey. Incidence of poverty and indigence. Results of the second half of 2016], 1(53). Retrieved from http://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/eph_pobreza_02_16.pdf.
MacRae, L. D., Bertrand, L. D., Paetsch, J. J., & Hornick, J. P. (2008). A profile of youth offenders in Calgary: An interim report. Calgary, AB: Canadian Research Institute for Law and the Family. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1880/107348.
McNeill, F. (2012). Four forms of ‘offender’ rehabilitation: Towards an interdisciplinary perspective. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 17, 18–36.
Moffitt, T. E. (1993). Adolescent-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100, 674–701. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.100.4.674
Moffitt, T. E. (2006). A review of research on the taxonomy of life-course persistent versus adolescence-limited antisocial behavior. In F. T. Cullen, J. P. Wright, & K. R. Blevins (Eds.), Taking stock: The status of criminological theory (pp. 277–311). Transaction Publishers.
Moitra, T., Mukherjee, I., & Chatterjee, G. (2017). Parenting behavior and juvenile delinquency among low-income families. Victims & Offenders, 13(3), 336–348. https://doi.org/10.1080/15564886.2017.1323062
Ohara, T., & Matsuura, N. (2016). The characteristics of delinquent behavior and predictive factors in Japanese children’s homes. Children and Youth Services Review, 61, 159–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2015.12.024
Orlando, M. (2013). About the havoc caused by the Argentine social deterioration in young offenders. Argentine Association of Mental Health. World Federation Mental Health. Connections Series, 648–640.
Orlando, M. S. (2017). Social determinants, which encourage the criminal desistance in young people in conflict with the law. European Psychiatry, 41, S153–S154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eurpsy.2017.01.2014
Orlando, M. S. (2020). Resilience and socio-emotional competences in recidivist and non-recidivist young offenders. Doctoral Dissertation. Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina. “Santa María de los Buenos Aires”.
Piper, E. S. (1985). Violent recidivism and chronicity in the 1958 Philadelphia cohort. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 1(4), 319–344. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01064185
Racz, S. J., Saha, S., Trent, M., Adger, H., Bradshaw, C. P., Goldweber, A., & Cauffman, E. (2015). Polysubstance use among minority adolescent males incarcerated for serious offenses. Child & Youth Care Forum, 45(2), 205–220. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10566-015-9334-x
Rutter, M., Giller, H., & Hagell, A. (1998). Antisocial behavior by young people. Cambridge University Press.
Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (2005). A general age-graded theory of crime: lessons learned and the future of life-course criminology. In D. P. Farrington (Ed.), Integrated developmental and life-course theories of offending (pp. 165–181). Transaction Publishers.
Sassenrath, C. (2019). “Let me show you how nice I am”: Impression management as bias in empathic responses. Social Psychology and Personality Science, 11, 752–760.
Scott, T., & Brown, S. L. (2018). Risks, strengths, gender, and recidivism among justice-involved youth: A meta-analysis. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 86(11), 931–945. https://doi.org/10.1037/ccp0000343
Schwalbe, C. S., Fraser, M. W., Day, S. H., & Cooley, V. (2006). Classifying juvenile offenders according to risk of recidivism. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 33(3), 305–324. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854806286451
Thornberry, T. P., & Krohn, M. D. (2000). The self-report method for measuring delinquency and crime. In D. Duffee (Ed.), Measurement and analysis of crime and justice: Criminal justice (Vol. 4, pp. 33–84). U.S. Department of Justice.
Tiet, Q. Q., Huizinga, D., & Byrnes, H. F. (2010). Predictors of resilience among inner city youths. Journal of Child and Family Studies, 19(3), 360–378.
Tracy, P. E., & Figlio, R. M. (1983). Chronic Recidivism in the 1958 Birth Cohort, Center for Studies in Criminology and Criminal Law, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.
United Nations Children’s Fund, SENAF-UNICEF. (2015). Situation of Boys, Girls and Adolescents without parental care in the Argentine Republic, 2014 update. UNICEF.
Wiese, R., Cálcena, E., Aramayo Criniti, A. D., Catanesi, C. I., & Folino, J. O. (2019). Psychosocial factors and Juvenile Homicide in Argentina. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 63(10), 1952–1966. https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X19837677
Acknowledgements
Dr. Mirian S. Orlando was honoured to be a Visiting Scholar at the Institute of Criminology of Cambridge University by Professor Farrington, during the first term of 2020, who kindly accepted to co-author this article.
Funding
This paper received no specific Grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for- profit sectors.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Orlando, M.S., Farrington, D.P. Risk Factors for Juvenile Recidivists Versus One-Time Offenders in Argentina: Comparisons with Other Countries. Int Criminol 1, 269–280 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43576-021-00021-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43576-021-00021-2