Abstract
System dynamics is one of the modeling methods that has become popular in water resources modeling in recent years due to its ability to consider various aspects of the system. The first step in develo** a dynamic system model is to develop “dynamic hypotheses” or causal loop diagrams (CLDs). This step poses some challenges as follows: a wide range of knowledge is required to develop these hypotheses; the affecting and affected components in each field are not predetermined; modelers develop the CLDs based on their assumptions. These challenges may exclude the main affecting components on the system in the models. The present study aims to address these challenges through the development of dynamic hypotheses using the grounded theory approach. The grounded theory provides a holistic and comprehensive view of the system through a systematic qualitative process. Therefore, to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, the proposed process was implemented in the Zayandehrud basin as one of the most complex basins in Iran. After develo** the hypotheses, their accuracy was ensured by providing quantitative data. It is noteworthy that the proposed method has proved satisfactory in showing the main problems of the natural and human system in the Zayandehrud basin and the connection between these problems. Moreover, the main problems in socioeconomic system of Zayandehrud basin, which have been less studied in previous researches, include: population growth, immigration, rising per capita water consumption, growth of the industrial and agricultural sector, improper development of pressurized irrigation systems, changing the water allocation to an unfair pattern, and rising unemployment.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Argent RM et al (2016) Best practices for conceptual modelling in environmental planning and management. Environ Model Softw 80:113–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.023
Basic Studies Office (2018) Statistics and information on water resources, Iran Water Resources Management Company. http://wrs.wrm.ir/amar. Accessed 8 May 2018
Bateni F (2012) Effect of Landuse Chanege on Zayandehroud River Water Quality. Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan
Bowen GA (2006) Grounded theory and sensitizing concepts. Int J Qual Methods 5(3):12–23. https://doi.org/10.1177/160940690600500304
Butler C, Adamowski J (2015) Empowering marginalized communities in water resources management: addressing inequitable practices in Participatory Model Building. J Environ Manag 153:153–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.02.010
Contor BA, Taylor RG (2013) Why improving irrigation efficiency increases total volume of consumptive use. Irrig Drain 62(3):273–280. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.1717
Corbin J, Strauss A (2014) Basics of qualitative research: techniques and procedures for develo** grounded theory. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781452230153
Davies EGR (2007) Modelling feedback in the society-biosphere-climate system. The University of Western Ontario, London
Di Baldassarre G et al (2013) Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17(8):3235–3244. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3235-2013
Di-Baldassarre G et al (2013) Socio-hydrology: Conceptualising human-flood interactions. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17(8):3295–3303. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013
Di-Baldassarre G et al (2018) Water shortages worsened by reservoir effects. Nat Sustain 1(11):617–622. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0159-0
Dong C, Schoups G, Van de Giesen N (2013) Scenario development for water resource planning and management: a review. Technol Forecast Soc Change 80(4):749–761. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.015
Dunne C (2011) The place of the literature review in grounded theory research. Int J Soc Res Methodol 14:111–124
Elshafei Y et al (2014) A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: Identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18(6):2141–2166. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2141-2014
Forrester JW (1961) Industrial dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge
Forrester JW (1992) Policies, decisions and information sources for modeling. Eur J Oper Res 59(1):42–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(92)90006-u
Glaser BG, Strauss AL (1967) The discovery of grounded theory: strategies for qualitative research, observations. Aldine Transaction, Piscataway. https://doi.org/10.2307/2575405
Gohari A, Eslamian S et al (2013a) Climate change impacts on crop production in Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. Sci Total Environ 442:405–419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.10.029
Gohari A, Eslamian Saeed et al (2013b) Water transfer as a solution to water shortage: a fix that can Backfire. J Hydrol 491(1):23–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.03.021
Golmohammadi MH (2015) Integrated water resources planning and management (IWRPM) in the Zayandehrud Basin under uncertainty using fuzzy performance criteria and sustainability index. Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan (in Persian)
Guest JS et al (2010) The use of qualitative system dynamics to identify sustainability characteristics of decentralized wastewater management alternatives. Water Sci Technol 61(6):1637–1644. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2010.880
Halbe J, Adamowski J (2011) Use of participatory system dynamics modelling for collaborative watershed management in Quebec, Canada. J Agric Eng 48(2):21–29
Herr A et al (2016) The uncertain impact of climate change on forest ecosystems—how qualitative modelling can guide future research for quantitative model development. Environ Model Softw 76:95–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.023
Hjørland B, Seldén L (2005) On grounded theory—with some malice. J Doc 61:114–129
Horlemann L, Mohajeri S (2017) Reviving the dying giant: integrated water resource management in the Zayandeh Rud catchment, Iran. Springer, Berlin. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54922-4
IUT Water and Sewerage Research Institute (2013) Integrated water resources management plan of Zayandehrud river basin (Climate change report). Isfahan University of Technology (IUT), Isfahan
Iran Meteorological Organization (2017) Meteorology data. Iran Meteorological Organization. https://data.irimo.ir/. Accessed 2 Jan 2018
Isfahan Agricultural Jihad Organization (2017) Statistics and information. Isfahan. http://agri-es.ir/Default.aspx?tabid=1925. Accessed 2 Oct 2017
Isfahan Industry and Trade Organisation (2018) Industry statistics and information. https://esf.mimt.gov.ir/. Accessed 2 Sept 2018
Isfahan University of Technology and Shahrekord University (2018) Water requirement of Zayandehrood river and Gavkhooni wetland for their ecological functions. Isfahan Environmental Protection Agency, Isfahan
Isfahan Water and Wastewater Company (2017) Statistics and information of water and wastewater company, Isfahan province, Isfahan Water and Wastewater Company. https://www.abfaesfahan.ir/. Accessed 2 Dec 2017
Ison R, Watson D (2007) Illuminating the possibilities for social learning in the management of Scotland’ s water. J Ecol Soc 12(1):21
Kotir JH et al (2016) A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana. Sci Total Environ 573:444–457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.081
Kotir JH et al (2017) Systemic feedback modelling for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development: an application of participatory modelling approach in the Volta River Basin. Environ Model Softw 88:106–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.11.015
Kvale S (1994) Ten standard objections to qualitative research interviews. J Phenomenol Psychol 25(2):147–173
Lane SN (2014) Acting, predicting and intervening in a socio-hydrological world. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18(3):927–952. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-927-2014
Little JC et al (2019) A tiered, system-of-systems modeling framework for resolving complex socio-environmental policy issues. Environ Model Softw 112:82–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.11.011
Loucks DP et al (2005) Water resources systems planning and management and applications: an introduction to methods, models and applications, water. UNESCO, Paris
Loucks DP (2017) Managing water as a critical component of a changing world. Water Resour Manag. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1705-7
Luna-Reyes LF, Andersen DL (2003) Collecting and analyzing qualitative data for system dynamics: methods and models. Syst Dyn Rev 19(4):271–296. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.280
Madani K, Mariño MA (2009) System dynamics analysis for managing Iran’s Zayandeh-rud river basin. Water Resour Manag 23(11):2163–2187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9376-z
Mendoza GA, Martins H (2006) Multi-criteria decision analysis in natural resource management: a critical review of methods and new modelling paradigms. For Ecol Manag 230(1–3):1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2006.03.023
Mirchi A et al (2012) Synthesis of system dynamics tools for holistic conceptualization of water resources problems. Water Resour Manag 26(9):2421–2442. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0024-2
Molle F, Mamanpoush A (2012) Scale, governance and the management of river basins: a case study from Central Iran. Geoforum 43(2):285–294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2011.08.004
Nabavi E, Daniell KA, Najafi H (2017) Boundary matters: the potential of system dynamics to support sustainability? J Clean Prod 140:312–323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.03.032
Osooli N et al (2011) Qualitativ examination of challenges and strategies to sustainable water resources management in agriculture sector in Kouhdasht Region in Lorestan Province Faculty member of Tehran University. World Appl Sci J 12(4):485–490
Ostrom E (2005) Understanding institutional diversity. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Rahmani Fazli A, Salehian S (2018) Investigating the Relationship between the Spreading of Human Settlements and Instability of Agricultural Water resources in the Zayandeh-Rud Basin. Town Country Plan 10(1):167–192. https://doi.org/10.22059/jtcp.2018.257200.669865
Rahmani F, Leifels K (2018) Abductive Grounded Theory: a worked example of a study in construction management. Constr Manag Econ 36(10):565–583. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2018.1449954
Randers J (1980) Guidelines for model conceptualization. In: Elements of the systems dynamics method. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 117–139
Reddy VR, Syme GJ (2014) Social sciences and hydrology: an introduction. J Hydrol 518(6):1–4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.022
Reed MS et al (2009) Who’ s in and why? A typology of stakeholder analysis methods for natural resource management. J Environ Manag 90(5):1933–1949. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.01.001
Rogers P, Hall AW (2003) Effective water governance global water partnership technical committee (TEC). Elanders, Sweden. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.04.003
Safavi HR, Golmohammadi MH, Sandoval-Solis S (2015) Expert knowledge based modeling for integrated water resources planning and management in the Zayandehrud River Basin. J Hydrol 528:773–789. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.07.014
Safavi HR, Enteshari S (2016) Social tools for resolving the water crisis in the Zayandehrud river basin. In: International conference on water and environment in the new millennium: education and capacity building. University of Tehran, Tehran
Sangestani M (2019) Investigation and assessment of the effects of climate changes and implementation of groundwater reclamations in the Zayanderud River Basin. M.Sc. thesis, Isfahan University of Technology
Sarhadi A, Soltani S (2013) Determination of water requirements of the Gavkhuni wetland, Iran: a hydrological approach. J Arid Environ 98:27–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2013.07.010
Scheierling SM, Young RA, Cardon GE (2004) Can farm irrigation technology subsidies affect real water conservation? In: UCOWR conference. http://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/ucowrconfs_2004/79
Sivapalan M, Savenije HHG, Blöschl G (2012) Socio-hydrology: a new science of people and water. Hydrol Process 26(8):1270–1276. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8426
Srdjevic Z et al (2017) Grounded theory methodology and public participation in water management. Eur Water 60(July):381–386
Srdjevic Z et al (2018) Public participation in water management of Krivaja River, Serbia: understanding the problem through grounded theory methodology. Water Resour Manag 32(15):5081–5092. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2132-0
Statistical Center of Iran (2019) Data and statistical information, Statistical Center of Iran. https://www.amar.org.ir/. Accessed 5 Feb 2019
Stave KA (2003) A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas, Nevada. J Environ Manag 67(4):303–313. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0301-4797(02)00205-0
Sterman J (2000) Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw-Hill, New York
Suddaby R (2006) From the editors: what grounded theory is not. Acad Manag J 49:633–642
UN-Water (2006) Water a shared responsibility: the united nations world water development report 2. Paris. https://doi.org/10.7748/nm.21.4.12.s12
UN-Water (2009) The United Nations world water development report 3—water in a changing world, UNESCO. Paris. https://doi.org/10.3390/w3020618
Van Emmerik THM et al (2014) Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River basin, Australia. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18(10):4239–4259. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4239-2014
Walker WE, Loucks DP, Carr G (2015) Social responses to water management decisions. Environ Process 2(3):485–509. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-015-0083-5
Walters P, Javernick-will AN (2015) Long-term functionality of rural water services in develo** countries: a system dynamics approach to understanding the dynamic interaction of factors. Environ Sci Technol 49:5035–5043. https://doi.org/10.1021/es505975h
Webb EJ et al (1968) American Anthropologist [70, 19681. Rand Mcnally, Oxford
Winz I, Brierley G, Trowsdale S (2008) The use of system dynamics simulation in integrated water resources management. Water Resour Manag 23(7):1301–1323. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9328-7
Wolstenholme E (1998) Qualitative v. quantitative modelling: the evolving balance. In: 1998 international system dynamics conference, pp 1–11
Zomorodian M et al (2018) The state-of-the-art system dynamics application in integrated water resources modeling. J Environ Manag 227:294–304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.08.097
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Enteshari, S., Safavi, H.R. Development of System Dynamics for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems Using Grounded Theory: A Case Study of the Zayandehrud River Basin. Iran J Sci Technol Trans Civ Eng 45, 413–428 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40996-020-00487-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40996-020-00487-6