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Quantifying the uncertainty of semiarid flash floods using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation

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Abstract

This paper aims to address the question of how the parameter uncertainty associated with a mixed conceptual and physical based rainfall-runoff model (AFFDEF) has influences on flood simulation of the semiarid Abolabbas catchment (284 km2), in Iran. AFFDEF was modified and coupled with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) algorithm to simulate four flash flood events. Analysis suggests that AFFDEF parameters showed non-unique posterior distributions depending on the magnitudes and duration of flash flood events. Model predictive uncertainty was heavily dominated by error and bias in soil antecedent moisture condition that led to large storage effect in simulation. Overall, multiplying parameter for the infiltration reservoir capacity and multiplying parameter for the interception reservoir capacity along with potential runoff contributing areas were identified the key model parameters and more influential on flood simulation. Results further revealed that uncertainty was satisfactorily quantified for the event with low to moderate flood magnitudes while high magnitude event exhibited unsatisfactory result.

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Acknowledgments

The authors appreciate those persons and agencies that assisted in accessing research data. Also this project was funded by Khozestan Water & Power Authority (KWPA). The modified source code of AFFDEF linked to MC sampler can be obtained from the first author (mohsen.pourreza@birjand.ac.ir) upon request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Science and Engineering Department, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran

    Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, 29208, USA

    S. Zahra Samadi

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  1. Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi
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  2. S. Zahra Samadi
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Correspondence to Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi.

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This article is part of the Topical Collection on Water Resources in Arid Areas

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Pourreza-Bilondi, M., Samadi, S.Z. Quantifying the uncertainty of semiarid flash floods using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. Arab J Geosci 9, 622 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2650-0

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