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Evaluation of the HEFESTOS scale to predict outcomes in emergency department acute heart failure patients

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Abstract

The HEFESTOS scale was developed in 14 Spanish primary care centres and validated in 9 primary care centres of other European countries. It showed good performance to predict death/hospitalisation during the first 30 days after an episode of acute heart failure (AHF), with c-statistics of 0.807/0.730 in the derivation/validation cohorts. We evaluated this scale in the emergency department (ED) setting, comparing it to the EHMRG and MEESSI scales in the ED and the EFFECT and GWTG scales in hospitalised patients, to predict 30-day outcomes, including death and hospitalisation. Consecutive AHF patients were enrolled in 34 Spanish EDs in January–February 2016, 2018, and 2019 with variables needed to calculate outcome scores. Thirty-day hospitalisation/death (together and separately) and post-discharge combined adverse event (ED revisit or hospitalisation for AHF or all-cause death) were determined for patients discharged home after ED care. Predictive capacity was assessed by c-statistic with 95% confidence intervals. Of 10,869 patients, 4,044 were included (median age: 83 years, 54% women). The performance of HEFESTOS was modest for 30-day hospitalisation/death, c-statistic=0.656 (0.637-0.675), hospitalisation, 0.650 (0.631-0.669), and death, 0.610 (0.576-0.644). Of 1,034 patients with scores for the 5 scales, HEFESTOS had the numerically highest c-statistic for hospitalisation/death at 30 days, 0.666 (0.627-0.704), vs. MEESSI= 0.650 (0.612-0.687, p=0.51), EFFECT=0.633 (0.595-0.672, p=0.21), GWTG=0.618 (0.578-0.657, p=0.06) and EHMRG=0.617 (0.577-0.704, p=0.07). Similar modest performances were observed for predicting hospitalisation [ranging from HEFESTOS=0.656 (0.618-0.695) to GWTG=0.603 (0.564-0.643)]. Conversely, prediction of 30-day death was good with the MEESSI=0.787 (0.728-845), EFFECT=0.754 (0.691-0.818) and GWTG=0.749 (0.689-0.809) scales, and modest with EHMRG=0.649 (0.581-0.717) and HEFESTOS=0.610 (0.538-0.683). Although the HEFESTOS scale was numerically better for predicting 30-day hospitalisation/death in ED AHF patients, its modest performance precludes routine use. Only 30-day mortality was adequately predicted by some scales, with the MEESSI achieving the best results.

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Acknowledgements

This study was partially supported by competitive grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III supported with funds from the Spanish Ministry of Health and FEDER (PI18/00393). The ICA-Research Group has received unrestricted funding from Novartis and Orion Pharma. José María Verdú-Rotellar and HEFESTOS group received grants from the Carlos III Institute of Health, Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Spain), awarded on the 2014 call under the Health Strategy Action 2013-2016, within the National Research Program oriented to Societal Challenges, within the Technical, Scientific and Innovation Research National Plan 2013-2016, co-funded with European Union ERDF funds [PI14/00583] and The European General Practice Research Network (EGPRN) [HP/2015.036]. We are very grateful for the great professionalism of Alicia Díaz in the data management of the EAHFE Registry. The design of the study, patient inclusion, data analysis, discussion and final conclusions were exclusively carried out by the authors with no participation of the granters. Marta Fuentes, Cristina Gil (Hospital Universitario de Salamanca), Héctor Alonso, Enrique Pérez-Llantada (Hospital Marqués de Valdecilla de Santander), Francisco Javier Martín-Sánchez, Guillermo Llopis García, Mar Suárez Cadenas (Hospital Clínico San Carlos de Madrid), Òscar Miró, Víctor Gil, Rosa Escoda, Sira Aguiló, Carolina Sánchez (Hospital Clínic de Barcelona), Javier Millán (Hospital Politénic La Fe de Valencia), José Pavón, Nayra Cabrera González (Hospital Dr. Negrín de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria), Antonio Noval (Hospital Insular de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria), Rafael Calvo Rodríguez, Juan Antonio Vega Reyes (Hospital Reina Sofía de Córdoba), María Luisa López-Grima, Amparo Valero, María Ángeles Juan (Hospital Dr. Peset de Valencia), Alfons Aguirre, Silvia Mínguez Masó, Lluis Enric Castillero Díaz (Hospital del Mar de Barcelona), María Isabel Alonso, Francisco Ruiz (Hospital de Valme de Sevilla), José Miguel Franco (Hospital Miguel Servet de Zaragoza), Ana Belén Mecina (Hospital de Alcorcón de Madrid), Josep Tost, Marta Berenguer, Ruxandra Donea (Consorci Sanitari de Terrassa), Susana Sánchez Ramón, Virginia Carbajosa Rodríguez (Hospital Universitario Rio Hortega de Valladolid), Pascual Piñera, José Andrés Sánchez Nicolás, Paula Lázaro Aragüés (Hospital Reina Sofía de Murcia), Raquel Torres Garate, Esther Álvarez Rodríguez (Hospital Severo Ochoa de Madrid), Aitor Alquézar-Arbé, Miguel Alberto Rizzi, Sergio Herrera (Hospital de la Santa Creu y Sant Pau de Barcelona), Javier Jacob, Alex Roset, Irene Cabello, Antonio Haro (Hospital Universitari de Bellvitge de Barcelona), Fernando Richard, José María Álvarez Pérez, María-Pilar López-Diez (Hospital Universitario de Burgos), Pablo Herrero Puente, Joaquín Vázquez Álvarez, Belén Prieto García, María García García, Marta Sánchez González (Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias de Oviedo), Pere Llorens, Inmaculada Jiménez, Néstor Hernández , Benjamín Brouzet, Begoña Espinosa, Adriana Gil-Rodrigo, Tamara García, María Dolores Jódar (Hospital General Universitario Dr. Balmis de Alicante), Juan Antonio Andueza (Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón de Madrid), Rodolfo Romero, Virginia Álvarez, Maite del Cerro, Nerea López, Silvia Odeh, Marta Merlo (Hospital Universitario de Getafe de Madrid), Martín Ruíz (Hospital de Henares de Madrid), María Teresa Lorca Serralta, Luis Ernesto Calderón Jave (Hospital del Tajo de Madrid), Beatriz Amores Arriaga, Beatriz Sierra Bergua (Hospital Clínico Lozano Blesa de Zaragoza), Enrique Martín Mojarro, Brigitte Silvana Alarcón Jiménez (Hospital Sant Pau i Santa Tecla de Tarragona), Lisette Travería Bécquer, Guillermo Burillo (Hospital Universitario de Canarias de Tenerife), Lluís Llauger García, Gerard Corominas LaSalle. (Hospital Universitari de Vic de Barcelona), Carmen Agüera Urbano, Ana Belén García Soto, Elisa Delgado Padial (Hospital Costa del Sol de Marbella de Málaga), Ester Soy Ferrer, María Adroher Múñoz (Hospital Josep Trueta de Girona). José Manuel Garrido (Hospital Virgen Macarena de Sevilla), Francisco Javier Lucas-Imbernón (Hospital General Universitario de Albacete), Rut Gaya (Hospital Juan XXIII de Tarragona), Carlos Bibiano, María Mir, Beatriz Rodríguez (Hospital Universitario Infanta Leonor de Madrid), José Luis Carballo (Complejo Hospitalario Universitario de Ourense), Esther Rodríguez-Adrada, Belén Rodríguez Miranda, Monika Vicente Martín (Hospital Rey Juan Carlos de Móstoles de Madrid). Pere Coma Casanova, Joan Espinach Alvarós (Hospital San Joan de Deu de Martorell, Barcelona)

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The EAHFE Registry protocol was approved by a central Ethics Committee at the Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias (Oviedo, Spain) with the reference numbers 49/2010, 69/2011, 166/13, 160/15 and 205/17. Due to the noninterventional design of the registry, Spanish legislation allows central Ethical Committee approval, accompanied by notification to the local Ethical Committees. All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional. The present study was carried out in strict compliance with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki.

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Gil-Rodrigo, A., Verdú-Rotellar, J.M., Gil, V. et al. Evaluation of the HEFESTOS scale to predict outcomes in emergency department acute heart failure patients. Intern Emerg Med 17, 2129–2140 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11739-022-03068-9

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