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Global, region and national trends and age-period-cohort effects in colorectal cancer burden from 1990 to 2019, with predictions to 2039

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Abstract

Nowadays, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer deaths and contributes to a gradually increasing disease burden. We aimed to estimate the secular trends of global CRC burden, the effect of age, period, and birth cohort, and project the global burden over time. Based on the epidemiological CRC data from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories from GBD 2019, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), was calculated from a linear model and joinpoint regression model. We utilized an age-period-cohort model to reckon age, period, and birth cohort effects on CRC age-standardized rate. The burden of CRC was projected by conducting the BAPC model. Globally, there was a slight decline in the age-standardized DALY rate, which was more apparent in females, with high SDI regions and in Australia and Western Europe areas. Meanwhile, our model predicts a weaker increase in morbidity (EAPC of 0.37) and a speedier reduction in mortality (EAPC of -0.66) by the next 20 years. The relative risk of period for high SDI regions decreased from 1.08 (95%UI: 1.06-1.1) in 1990-1994 to 0.85 (95%UI:0.83-0.88) in 2015-2019, but worsens in low and middle SDI regions. The local drifts were more than 1 in the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups, indicating the rising tide of early-onset CRC. Given the gender and region-specific CRC, targeted efforts to reduce the prevalence of risk factors, improve screening coverage rates, and strengthen foundational medical facilities are necessary.

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Data availability

The datasets used or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant no. 2018YFC1603105).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Public Health, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China

    Shuhua Hu

  2. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, PR China

    Yiling Li, Wenmin Zhu, Jialin Liu & Sheng Wei

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  1. Shuhua Hu
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  2. Yiling Li
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  4. Jialin Liu
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Correspondence to Sheng Wei.

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Hu, S., Li, Y., Zhu, W. et al. Global, region and national trends and age-period-cohort effects in colorectal cancer burden from 1990 to 2019, with predictions to 2039. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 83245–83259 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28223-3

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