Abstract
We propose a simple method based on two relations for predicting the maximum of an 11-year solar cycle. The first relation is the well-known Waldmeier rule that binds the amplitude of a cycle and the length of its ascending phase. The second one relates the length of a given cycle from minimum to minimum and the amplitude of the next one. Using corresponding linear regressions, we obtain for the amplitude of Cycle 25 in the scale of 13-month smoothed monthly total revised sunspot number \({\mathrm{SN}}_{\mathrm{max}}(25) = 181\pm 46\) and for the moment of the maximum \(t_{\mathrm{max}}(25) = 2024.2\pm 1.0\). Therefore, according to the prediction, Cycle 25 will be higher than the previous one (\({\mathrm{SN}}_{\mathrm{max}}(24) = 116\)) with probability 0.92.
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Data Availability
The datasets analysed during the current study are publicly available on resources referenced above. The datasets generated during the study are available from the author on reasonable request.
Notes
The dataset is available at https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/DATA/SN_ms_tot_V2.0.txt.
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Ivanov, V.G. Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Using Length-to-Amplitude Relations. Sol Phys 297, 92 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-022-02031-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-022-02031-3