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Spatial prediction of highway slope disasters based on convolution neural networks

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Abstract

In order to clarify the spatial differentiations of highway slope disasters (HSDs) in Boshan District, spatial prediction was carried out based on ECG-CNN with the support of GIS. Spatial prediction factors of HSDs were selected, and the stabilities of the 147 highway slopes in Boshan District were determined. The spatial prediction model of HSDs was established by ECG-CNN, and the spatial susceptibility map of HSDs in Boshan District was plotted. Influences of the prediction factor combinations and the drill sample and verification sample combinations on the prediction success rates were verified. The results show that low susceptible areas, medium susceptible areas and high susceptible areas account for 56.92%, 28.46% and 14.62% of the total areas of Boshan District, respectively. Some sections of Binlai Expressway, G205, G309, S210 and S307, pass through high susceptible areas. The surface cutting depth has a small impact on the prediction success rate, while the elevation and gradient have great impacts on the prediction success rate. When the drill samples are small, network drill’s maturity has a great impact on the prediction success rate, while when there are many drill samples, the model’s logical structure itself has a large impact on the prediction success rate.

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Acknowledgements

This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51808327) and Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (Grant No. ZR2019PEE016). I would like to thank Han Zhang for his contribution to the revision process.

Funding

Funding was provided by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51808327) and Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (Grant No. ZR2019PEE016)

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil and Architecture Engineering, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo, 255049, China

    Chao Yin

  2. Shandong Kezheng Project Management Co., LTD, Dongying, 257000, China

    Zhanghua Wang

  3. Shandong Dongtai Engineer Consulting Co., LTD, Zibo, 255000, China

    **ngkui Zhao

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  1. Chao Yin
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  2. Zhanghua Wang
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  3. **ngkui Zhao
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Correspondence to Chao Yin.

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Yin, C., Wang, Z. & Zhao, X. Spatial prediction of highway slope disasters based on convolution neural networks. Nat Hazards 113, 813–831 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05325-8

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