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Site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for northern part of the Qeshm Island, Iran

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Abstract

This paper presents results of a site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for northern part of the Qeshm Island, one the most seismic prone areas of Iran. Seismotectonic and seismicity properties of seismic sources in the study area were characterized and used for evaluation of various strong ground motion parameters implementing the classical Cornell’s PSHA approach. The results show that peak rock accelerations for 475-year return period are 0.4 and 0.27 g, respectively, for 84th and 50th percentiles while being about 0.37 and 0.61 g for 2475-year return period. These values are slightly smaller than those read from national seismic zonation maps which can be attributed to the considered conservatism for development of such design maps. In order to incorporate local site conditions, a series of dynamic site response analyses based on the equivalent linear approach were also employed. The results indicate that the presence of soft subsurface deposits at the site significantly alters the fundamental characteristics of the response spectra. The obtained median (50th percentile) peak ground accelerations for 975-year return period range between 0.49 and 0.54 g at different locations in the study site showing minor amplifications relative to their corresponding bedrock acceleration of 0.48 g. Finally, the obtained site-specific spectrum was compared with the standard spectrum mandated by the design codes. In this regard, the agreement was found to be reasonable at period ranges shorter than about 0.5 s, while the differences were more obvious at longer periods. This reveals the need for implementation of site-specific design spectrum to avoid underestimation or overestimation of seismic forces for designing critically important structures especially when softer deposits are encountered.

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Acknowledgements

The present research would not be completed without the valuable data of geotechnical site investigations provided by Sahel Consulting Engineers Company. The authors would like to express their great thanks to the managers and decision-makers of the company for their valuable help in this regard.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Ali Kavand

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Zanjan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Zanjan, Iran

    Hamid Alielahi

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  1. Ali Kavand
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Correspondence to Ali Kavand.

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Kavand, A., Alielahi, H. Site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for northern part of the Qeshm Island, Iran. Nat Hazards 88, 919–946 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2898-z

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