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Future climate-driven drought events across Lake Urmia, Iran

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Abstract

Climate change has increased the vulnerability of arid and semi-arid regions to recurrent and prolonged meteorological droughts. In light of this, our study has sought to assess the nature of future meteorological drought in Lake Urmia basin, Iran, within the context of future climate projections. To achieve this, data from 54 general circulation models (GCMs) was calibrated against both in situ and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre datasets. These GCMs were then employed to project drought conditions expected over 2016–2046 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 as the most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. To provide a comprehensive analysis, these RCPs were combined with two different time scale Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), leading to eight different scenarios. The SPI was calculated over two temporal scales for the past (1985–2015) and future (2016–2046), including the medium-term (SPI-6) and long-term (SPI-18) index. Results showed that while precipitation is expected to increase by up to 34%, parts of the basin are projected to face severe and prolonged droughts under both RCPs. The most severe drought event is expected to occur around 2045–2046 under the most pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario. Severe droughts with low frequency are also anticipated to increase under other scenarios. By characterizing meteorological drought conditions for Lake Urmia basin under future climate conditions, our findings call for urgent action for adaptation strategies to mitigate the future adverse effects of drought in this region and other regions facing similar challenges. Overall, this study provides valuable insight into the impacts of climate change on future droughts that can adversely influence water resources in arid and semi-arid regions.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to express our gratitude to the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) and the Ministry of Energy for providing the historical record of the precipitation data used in this study. We are also grateful to the anonymous reviewer whose constructive comments significantly improved our manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, 3158777871, Iran

    Bagher Shirmohammadi

  2. Natural Disaster Research Institute, Tehran, Iran

    Maryam Rostami

  3. Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, 5619911367, Iran

    Saeid Varamesh

  4. Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, 1496793612, Iran

    Abolfazl Jaafari

  5. Working Group Lowland Hydrology and Water Management, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374, Müncheberg, Germany

    Majid Taie Semiromi

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  1. Bagher Shirmohammadi
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  2. Maryam Rostami
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Contributions

Conceptualization: Bagher Shirmohammadi and Maryam Rostami; data acquisition: Bagher Shirmohammadi and Maryam Rostami; methodology: Bagher Shirmohammadi, Maryam Rostami, Saeid Varameshb, Majid Taie Semiromi, and Abolfazl Jaafari; supervision: Bagher Shirmohammadi and Abolfazl Jaafari; Writing—original draft preparation: Bagher Shirmohammadi, Maryam Rostami, Saeid Varamesh, and Majid Taie Semiromi; Writing—review and editing: Abolfazl Jaafari.

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Correspondence to Bagher Shirmohammadi or Abolfazl Jaafari.

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Shirmohammadi, B., Rostami, M., Varamesh, S. et al. Future climate-driven drought events across Lake Urmia, Iran. Environ Monit Assess 196, 24 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-12181-x

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