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The main developments of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering since the early 1700s and the new challenges for a sustainable society

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Abstract

A look at the evolution of Seismology and Engineering Construction from the mid-1700s until the mid-1900s is presented to understand the main accomplishments achieved. Then, we perspective the new advancements toward future mitigation of earthquake impacts with a clear proposal for sustainability and ecological challenge. We will concentrate on analysing the phase 1755–1950 because not enough attention has been paid recently to this exciting period. Next, we jump to our days to look into a few significant problems that require the involvement of the scientific, technical and political communities. In particular: (i) We will look into the developments Intensity Scales should pursue to reduce uncertainties since more than 20 years have passed since the last upgrade. Today, the information from new events is much more extensive and reliable than in the past. Several examples will be presented to illustrate how the frequency of motion should be included in the main characteristics/categories (Building typologies and Vulnerabilities; Damage Grade; Quantity definition) and how it could be beneficial to add a few more descriptors to the Scale, namely shaking of objects and sloshing of water in recipients. (ii) We will analyse the lines of development to mitigate earthquake impacts, and respond to present and future needs, concentrating on the new scientific results that are changing seismology from a “back-analyst” science (indirect contribution to earthquake engineering) into a more pro-active one, with direct impact to reduce risks, such as the EEWS, and low-cost instrumentation. And adding to earthquake engineering the revolutionising health monitoring, as a precautious indicator of malfunction of structures, and a rapid system for evaluation of post-earthquakes, complemented with the citizen science. Finally, all these ingredients need to be merged into simple recommendations for which only data mining will be able to extract new reliable information.

Five Highlights’s for the future:

  • MEMS

  • EEWS

  • Performance-based design

  • Field trips

  • Citizen Science

All these new developments under the umbrella of Machine Learning.

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Notes

  1. GNP (Gross Nacional Product) is slightly larger than GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

  2. Bn or B = 10.9.

Abbreviations

3-DEC:

Three-Dimensional Distinct Element Code

AD:

After Christ’ Death

ADRS:

Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum

AE:

Acoustic Emission

AFPS:

Association Française du Génie ParaSismique

AGU:

American Geophysical Union

AI:

Artificial Intelligence

ALARP:

As low as reasonably practicable

ATC:

American Technology Council

BC:

Before Christ

CATDAT:

Earthquake damaging database

CEA:

Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique (France)

CLT:

Cross-Laminated Timber

CRED:

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

D1-D5:

Damage grades

DAS:

Distributed Acoustic sensing

dB:

Decibel

DM:

Damage Matrix

DOF:

Degree of Freedom

DRM:

Disaster Risk Management

DRMKC:

Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre

DSS:

Decision Support Systems

DV:

Decision variables

DYFI:

Did you feel it

EAEE:

European Association for Earthquake Engineering

EC Codes:

European Codes

EC-8 Code:

Part dedicated to the Earthquake Problems

ECEE:

European Conference on Earthquake Engineering

EDP:

Earthquake Demanding Parameters

EEFIT:

Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team

EERC:

Earthquake Engineering Research Center

EERI:

Earthquake Engineering Research Institute

EEWS:

Earthquake Early Warning Systems

EGU:

European Geosciences Union

EIS:

Environmental Intensity Scale

EM-DAT:

Emergency Events Database

EMEC:

Euro-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue

EMS-98:

European Macroseismic Scale

EMSC-CSEM:

Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, Centre Sismologique Euro-Méditerranéen

ERCC:

Emergency Response Coordination Centre (DG ECHO)

ESC:

European Seismological Commission

EU:

European Union

FEM:

Finite Element Method

FEMA:

Federal Emergency Management Agency

FFF:

Fused filament fabrication

FRP:

Fiber Reinforced Materials

GDP:

Gross Domestic Product

GEM:

Global Earthquake Model

GM:

Ground Motion

GMPE:

Ground Motion Prediction Equations

GNP:

Gross National Product

GNSS:

Global Navigational Satellite System

GPS:

Global Positioning System

HDI:

Human Development Index

IAEE:

International Association on Earthquake Engineering

IASPEI:

International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior

IBC:

International Building Code

IDNDR:

International Decade for Natural Risk Reduction

IM:

Intensity measures

IMS:

International Macroseismic Scale

InSAR:

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar

ISC:

International Seismological Centre

IT:

Information Technology

IUSS:

Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia

JMA:

Japan Meteorological Agency for Intensity

JRC:

Joint Research Centre, EU

LI:

Laser Interferometry

LSB:

Least Significant Bit

MEMS:

Micro-ElectroMechanical System

MIP:

Macroseismic Intensity Points

ML:

Machine Learning

MMI:

Mercalli Modified Intensity

MPM:

Material Point Method

MSK:

Medvedev, Sponheuer and Karnik Scale

NRT:

Near-real-time

NGDC:

National Geophysical Data Center

OBS:

Ocean Bottom Seismometer

OEF:

Operational Earthquake Forecasting

OR:

Operational Research

PBD:

Performance-based design

PEER:

Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center

PEM:

Photonics for Earthquake Monitoring

PGA:

Peak Ground Acceleration

PGD:

Peak Ground Displacement

PGV:

Peak Ground Velocity

PSHA:

Probability Seismic Hazard Analysis

RC:

Reinforced Concrete

RP:

Return Period

RRE:

Rapid Response to Earthquakes

RS:

Response spectrum

SAR:

Synthetic Aperture Radar

SEAOC:

Structural Engineers Association of California

SEE:

Seismology and Earthquake Engineering

SGM:

Strong Ground Motion

SHM:

Structural Health Monitoring

SMART:

Cables: Seismic Monitoring & Reliable Telecommunications

SMART Array:

Strong Motion Array Taiwan

SIRIUS:

Seismic Risk Indicator in Urban Space

SM:

Strong Motion

SMA:

Strong Motion Accelerometer

SMART:

Strong Motion Array in Taiwan

TEWS:

Tsunami Early Warning Systems

THM:

Carbon Fiber Material

UBC:

Uniform Building Code

UNDRR:

UN Disaster Risk Reduction

USGS:

US Geological Survey

WCEE:

World Conference on Earthquake Engineering

WW:

World War

WWSSN:

World Wide Seismograph Standard Network

-:

AGEO

-:

LESS-LOSS

-:

NERA

-:

NERIES

-:

REAKT

-:

SERA

-:

SERIES

-:

SHEEC

-:

TURNkey

-:

UPSTrat-MAFA

G–R:

Gutenberg–Richter law of occurrences

M:

Richter Magnitude

MW :

Moment Magnitude

P-δ effect:

Increases buckling probability

T, τ:

Period of vibration (sec)

T:

Period of time (centuries, years, days)

V:

Velocity (m/s)

λ:

Rate of occurrence

λ:

Wave length (m)

ω:

Frequency of vibration (Hz)

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Acknowledgements

To all Family members and friends that helped me have the time to study and think. To Colleagues and students that helped me in creating or solving problems. To the Colleagues and friends who helped process data and prepared this text. To Humberto Varum from the University of Oporto for all comments and suggestions when revising the manuscript. The author is grateful for the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology's support through partial funding UIDB/04625/2020 from the research unit CERIS.

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    Carlos Sousa Oliveira

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Fig. 88
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Oliveira, C.S. The main developments of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering since the early 1700s and the new challenges for a sustainable society. Bull Earthquake Eng 20, 4697–4863 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01440-w

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