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Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975–2008

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Abstract

The relationship between heat waves and mortality has been widely described, but there are few studies using long daily data on specific-cause mortality. This study is undertaken in central Spain and analysing natural causes, circulatory and respiratory causes of mortality from 1975 to 2008. Time-series analysis was performed using ARIMA models, including data on specific-cause mortality and maximum and mean daily temperature and mean daily air pressure. The length of heat waves and their chronological number were analysed. Data were stratified in three decadal stages: 1975–1985, 1986–1996 and 1997–2008. Heat-related mortality was triggered by a threshold temperature of 37 °C. For each degree that the daily maximum temperature exceeded 37 °C, the percentage increase in mortality due to circulatory causes was 19.3 % (17.3–21.3) in 1975–1985, 30.3 % (28.3–32.3) in 1986–1996 and 7.3 % (6.2–8.4) in 1997–2008. The increase in respiratory cause ranged from 12.4 % (7.8–17.0) in the first period, to 16.3 % (14.1–18.4) in the second and 13.7 % (11.5–15.9) in the last. Each day of heat-wave duration explained 5.3 % (2.6–8.0) increase in respiratory mortality in the first period and 2.3 % (1.6–3.0) in the last. Decadal scale differences exist for specific-causes mortality induced by extreme heat. The impact on heat-related mortality by natural and circulatory causes increases between the first and the second period and falls significantly in the last. For respiratory causes, the increase is no reduced in the last period. These results are of particular importance for the estimation of future impacts of climate change on health.

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Acknowledgments

This study was funded by grants from the Castile-La Mancha Socio-Healthcare Foundation (Fundación Sociosanitaria de Castilla-La Mancha), Dossier PI 2010/007, and from the Spanish Health Research Fund (Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias, FIS), Dossier PI12/01404-ENPY 1001/13 and “Miguel Servet Type 1” Grant: SEPY 1037/14 from the Carlos III Institute of Health.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Torrijos Public Health District, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Affairs Authority, Torrijos, Toledo, Spain

    Isidro Juan Miron

  2. National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain

    Cristina Linares & Julio Díaz

  3. Health Sciences Institute, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Affairs Authority, Talavera de la Reina, Toledo, Spain

    Juan Carlos Montero

  4. Castile-La Mancha Health Service (Servicio de Salud de Castilla-La Mancha – SESCAM), San Bartolome de las Abiertas, Toledo, Spain

    Juan Jose Criado-Alvarez

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  1. Isidro Juan Miron
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  2. Cristina Linares
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  4. Juan Jose Criado-Alvarez
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  5. Julio Díaz
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Correspondence to Isidro Juan Miron.

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Miron, I.J., Linares, C., Montero, J.C. et al. Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975–2008. Int J Biometeorol 59, 1213–1222 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0933-2

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