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Convection-permitting modeling strategies for simulating extreme rainfall events over Southeastern South America

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Abstract

A set of six convection-permitting (CP) domain configurations were implemented to perform 72-hour long simulations of three extreme precipitation events over Southeastern South America (SESA). The goal of the study is to determine the most adequate configuration for reproducing not only the rainfall evolution and intensity, but also the synoptic triggering mechanisms that led to these extreme events, taking into account the trade-off between model performance and computational cost. This study assesses the impact of (1) the horizontal resolution in the CP domain, (2) the horizontal resolution of the driver domain, (3) the size of both CP and driver domains and (4) the nesting strategy (one-step versus two-step nesting). Each simulation was performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. For each event and domain configuration, a 6-member physics ensemble is built, making a total of 36 simulations for each event. No significant differences were found between the 4 km and 2.4 km CP ensembles. Increasing the horizontal resolution of the driver domain from 20 km to 12 km introduced only subtle differences. Increasing the size of the CP domain improved the model performance, probably because of better resolved topography and, hence, better resolved synoptic environment. The results in this study reveal that the one-step nesting CP ensemble at 4 km horizontal resolution covering an area of \(29^\circ\)x \(21^\circ\) (lon-lat) arises as the optimal domain configuration among these tested to simulate extreme precipitation events over SESA.

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Acknowledgements

This study has been supported UBACYT2018 Grant 20020170100117BA and FONCYT Grant PICT2018-02496. The authors are grateful for constructive comments by two anonymous reviewers who helped improving the manuscript.

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This study has been supported UBACYT2018 Grant 20020170100117BA and FONCYT Grant PICT2018-02496.

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  1. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Martín Feijoó

  2. CONICET – Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Martín Feijoó & Silvina Solman

  3. CNRS – IRD – CONICET – UBA, Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (IRL 3351 IFAECI), Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Martín Feijoó & Silvina Solman

  4. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Silvina Solman

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Feijoó, M., Solman, S. Convection-permitting modeling strategies for simulating extreme rainfall events over Southeastern South America. Clim Dyn 59, 2549–2569 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06226-z

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