Assessment of Climate and Human Induced Disaster Risk Over Shared Water Resources in the Balkhash Lake Drainage Basin

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the implications of climate change and human activity on the disaster risk for water resources in the Balkhash Lake drainage basin, which are shared between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the People’s Republic of China. The long-term periodical fluctuations in the Balkhash Lake water levels demonstrate their intimate connection with components of its water regime, especially run-off from its main contributor, the Ili River, which flows from the Republic of China. A rapid increase in human activity in the Kazakh part of the drainage basin in the period 1970–1990 led to a significant drop in the Balkhash water level and devastating effects on wet ecosystems. The reduction of anthropogenic impact in the Balkhash Lake drainage basin after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 coincided with favourable climate conditions during the 1990s and 2000s. This led to a significant rise in the water level in the Balkhash Lake and to the rehabilitation of its degraded ecosystems. However, a new challenge for the sustainable use of Lake Balkhash water resources appeared during the last decade, posed by the development of large irrigated areas in the upper part of the Ili River in the Republic of China. China is planning to reduce considerably the outflow of the Ili into Kazakhstan. Moreover, contemporary climate change causes changes in precipitation and temperature in the drainage basin. The paper presents three different scenarios for the development of the Balkhash Lake in the twenty-first century. The scenarios were simulated with respect to changes in human activity and climate parameters in both parts (Kazakhstan and China) of the Balkhash Lake basin. Two of the scenarios lead to disaster-like changes in the Balkhash Lake.