Monte Carlo Simulation for Trial Design Tool

Principles and Practice of Clinical Trials

Abstract

Clinical trials often involve design issues with mathematically intractable complexity. Being part of multi-phase drug development programs, the trial designs need to incorporate prior information in terms of historical data from earlier phases and available knowledge about related trials. Some trials with inherent limits on data collection may need augmentation with simulated pseudo-data. For planning of interim looks, group sequential and adaptive trials require accurate timeline predictions of reaching clinical milestones involving complex set of operational and clinical models. In general, clinical trial design involves an interactive process involving interplay of models, data, assumptions, insights, and experiences to address specific design issues before and during the trial. This offers a rich context for simulation-centric modeling, the theme of this chapter. We will focus on practical considerations of applying simulation modeling tools and techniques to design and implementation of clinical trials. This will be achieved through two real-life case studies and relevant illustrative examples drawn from literature and our practical experience.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Antonijevic Z, Pinheiro J, Fardipour P, Lewis RJ (2010) Impact of dose selection strategies used in phase II on the probability of success in phase III. Stat Biopharm Res 2(4):469–486

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnold B, Hogan D, Colford J, Hubbard A (2011) Simulation methods to estimate design power: an overview for applied research. BMC Med Res Methodol 11:94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benda N, Branson M, Maurer W, Friede T (2010) Aspects of modernizing drug development using clinical scenario planning and evaluation. Drug Inf J 44:299–315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berry SM (ed) (2011) Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials. Chapman & Hall/CRC biostatistics series. CRC Press, Boca Raton. 305 p

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhatt DL, Kandzari DE, O’Neill WW, D’Agostino R, Flack JM, Katzen BT (2014) A controlled trial of renal denervation for resistant hypertension. N Engl J Med 370:1393–1401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang M (2011) Monte Carlo simulation for the pharmaceutical industry: concepts, algorithms, and case studies. Chapman & Hall/CRC biostatistics series. CRC Press, Boca Raton

    Google Scholar 

  • Cui L, Hung HMJ, Wang S (1999) Modification of sample size in group sequential clinical trials. Biometrics 55:853–857

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dmitrienko A, Pukstenis E (2017) Clinical trial optimization using R. Chapman & Hall/CRC biostatistics series. CRC Press, Boca Raton

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • East 6 (2018) Statistical software for the design, simulation and monitoring clinical trials. Cytel Inc., Cambridge, MA

    Google Scholar 

  • Evans SR (2010) Fundamentals of clinical trial design. J Exp Stroke Transl Med 3(1):19–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Friede T, Nicholas R, Stallard N, Todd S, Parsons NR, Valdes-Marquez E, Chataway J (2010) Refinement of the clinical scenario evaluation framework for assessment of competing development strategies with an application to multiple sclerosis. Drug Inf J 44:713–718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao P, Ware J, Mehta C (2008) Sample size re-estimation for adaptive sequential design in clinical trials. J Biopharm Stat 18:1184–1196

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Haddad T, Himes A, Thompson L, Irony T, Nair R (2017) Incorporation of stochastic engineering models as prior information in Bayesian medical device trials. J Biopharm Stat 27:1089–1103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ibrahim JG, Chen M-H, Gwon Y, Chen F (2015) The power prior: theory and applications. Stat Med 34(28):3724–3749

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Jennison C, Turnull BW (2000) Group sequential methods with applications to clinical trials. Chapman and Hall/CRC, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang Z, Song Y, Shou Q, **a J, Wang W (2014) A Bayesian prediction model between a biomarker and clinical endpoint for dichotomous variables. Trials 15:500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim K, Tsiatis AA (1990) Study duration for clinical trials with survival response and early stop** rule. Biometrics 46:81–92

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Lan KKG, DeMets DL (1983) Discrete sequential boundaries for clinical trials. Biometrika 70:659–663

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Mehta CR, Pocock SJ (2011) Adaptive increase in sample size when interim results are promising: a practical guide with examples. Stat Med 30:3267–3284

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Muller P, Berry D, Grieve A, Smith M, Krams M (2007) Simulation-based sequential Bayesian design. J Stat Plann Inference 137:3140–3150

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Musgrove D, Haddad T (2017) BayesDP: tools for the Bayesian discount prior function. https://Cran.R-project.org/package=bayesDP

  • Paux G, Dmitrienko A (2016) Mediana: clinical trial simulations. R package version 1.0.4. http://gpaux.github.io/Mediana/

  • Robert C, Casella G (2010) Introducing Monte Carlo methods with R. Springer, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Suess E, Trumbo B (2010) Introduction to probability simulation and Gibbs sampling with R. Springer, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson JR (1999) Simulation: a modeler’s approach. Wiley, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Townsend RR, Mahfoud F, Kandzari DE, Kario K, Pocock S, Weber MA (2017) Catheter-based renal denervation in patients with uncontrolled hypertension in the absence of antihypertensive medications (SPYRAL HTN-OFF MED): a randomised, sham-controlled, proof-of-concept trial. Lancet 390(10108):2160–2170

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Suresh Ankolekar .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Section Editor information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this entry

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this entry

Ankolekar, S., Mehta, C., Mukherjee, R., Hsiao, S., Smith, J., Haddad, T. (2020). Monte Carlo Simulation for Trial Design Tool. In: Piantadosi, S., Meinert, C. (eds) Principles and Practice of Clinical Trials. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52677-5_251-1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52677-5_251-1

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-52677-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-52677-5

  • eBook Packages: Springer Reference MathematicsReference Module Computer Science and Engineering

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Chapter history

  1. Latest

    Monte Carlo Simulation for Trial Design Tool
    Published:
    27 November 2020

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52677-5_251-2

  2. Original

    Monte Carlo Simulation for Trial Design Tool
    Published:
    19 August 2020

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52677-5_251-1

Navigation