Conceptual Framework for the Seismic Risk Evaluation of Transportation Networks in Romania

Abstract

The assessment of seismic risk for transportation networks is a difficult task, due to its complexity, hard to get detailed data, lack of methods with low uncertainties and difficulty of defining inter-relations. Through this paper we identify viable ways of analysing the seismic risk of transportation networks in Romania, considering the availability and characteristics of specific data, the possibilities of adapting external knowledge and recently developed methodologies. Until now there was no coherent and complex approach in Romania for this task, referring to the bigger picture. Therefore, we propose an integrative framework that incorporates GIS capabilities (like the ones provided by the ArcGIS Network Analyst Toolbox) and test it for Bucharest. This framework can provide answer to important questions, like “which are the critical segments of networks” or “what could the implications of connectivity loss be?” in case of an earthquake. The approach relies on using fragility functions for critical structures like bridges and tunnels, on empirical formulas for estimating damage level, traffic flow characteristics or connectivity analysis. Results are depicted through multiple performance indicators.