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Monitoring and Prediction of Spatiotemporal Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Using Markov Chain Cellular Automata Model in Barisal, Bangladesh

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Advancements in Urban Environmental Studies

Part of the book series: GIScience and Geo-environmental Modelling ((GGM))

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) is the dominant approach to evaluating urban expansion and estimating proper urban planning and management. LULC changes reflect the economic and structural development of specific areas. These types of drivers of land use and land cover (LULC) are accountable for a slew of issues, including road congestion, flooding, sanitation facilities, and agricultural land depletion. This chapter utilized an integrated Markov chain cellular automata method to simulate LULC and prediction in the Barisal district to analyze these issues. Firstly, visualization of spatiotemporal changes was extracted for two different periods of 2002 and 2021 from satellite images. Then the combined technique of GIS, RS (Remote Sensing), and the Markov chain cellular automata method was employed to predict LULC in the 2031 period. The results of this study, the maximum area of water bodies increased from 4.47 to 9.93% between 2002 and 2021, while bare land decreased from 20.93 to 16.63%. The increase in water bodies may be the consequence of sea level rise and flooding as well. As a coastal location, the expected changes show that agricultural land might decline from 57.45 to 49.23% between 2021 and 2031 due to the water body’s dominance (9.94–10.03%). So, the future model could help with planning and building cities in a way that protects the environment and is sustainable.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, 5400, Bangladesh

    Md. Naimur Rahman & Md. Mushfiqus Saleheen

  2. Department Environmental Engineering, Nan**g Forestry University, Nan**g, 2130007, China

    Sajjad Hossain Shozib

  3. Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, 5400, Bangladesh

    Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam

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  1. Md. Naimur Rahman
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  2. Md. Mushfiqus Saleheen
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  3. Sajjad Hossain Shozib
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  4. Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam
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Correspondence to Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, Delhi, India

    Atiqur Rahman

  2. Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA

    Shouraseni  Sen Roy

  3. Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, Delhi, India

    Swapan Talukdar

  4. Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, Delhi, India

    Shahfahad

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Naimur Rahman, M., Mushfiqus Saleheen, M., Shozib, S.H., Towfiqul Islam, A.R.M. (2023). Monitoring and Prediction of Spatiotemporal Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Using Markov Chain Cellular Automata Model in Barisal, Bangladesh. In: Rahman, A., Sen Roy, S., Talukdar, S., Shahfahad (eds) Advancements in Urban Environmental Studies. GIScience and Geo-environmental Modelling. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21587-2_8

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