Abstract
Teff, maize, wheat, sorghum, and barley are the five major food crops in Ethiopia. This chapter provides a summary of the work investigating the effect of climate change and potential adaptation strategies to mitigate their effects for the abovementioned major field crops in Ethiopia. Climate change studies were carried out using an in silico approach via the utilization of crop growth [AquaCrop, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)] and global climate models. Maize varieties, Melkasa-1, BH-660, and BH-540, resulted in a significant change in yield during the midcentury by −13 to −8%, +3 to +13%, and −10 to +4%, respectively. For maize, the use of optimal planting date, nitrogen (N) fertilization, and irrigation contributed to improve yield under future climates. For wheat, cross-location average yield could slightly increase during the midcentury when simulated under RCP8.5 (elevated CO2 scenario) when accompanied with optimal N fertilization management. In contrast, barley yield during the midcentury is projected to decline by 6 to 11% relative to baseline yield. Optimal planting date, tied ridging, rotation with legumes, and N fertilization along with elevated CO2 could minimize the negative impacts of climate change on the productivity of barley. For sorghum, simulation studies showed that the crop is highly responsive to time of planting, with yields negatively impacted during the midcentury by up to 9.1% for March and 12.2% for April planting. Planting time could be considered as an effective adaptation strategy for sorghum in Ethiopia. For teff, yield during the midcentury could decline by up to 12% when sown after the top 10 cm soil is wet and no extended dry spells of more than 7 days occur afterward for over 25 days. This indicates the importance of precipitation quantity and seasonal distribution for sowing teff. In addition, optimal N fertilization (64 kg/ha) could increase productivity of teff while reducing the negative impacts of climate change. Higher N above this level (64 kg/ha) causes issues related to lodging. Thus, for teff crop, yield losses could be reduced due to the effect of climate change by planting early and providing optimal N fertilization.
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Acknowledgments
We thank the Feed the Future Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab funded by the United States Agency for International Development (grant number AID-OAA-L-14-00006) and Department of Agronomy at Kansas State University for supporting their research. Contribution number 22-239-B from the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station.
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Araya, A., Prasad, P.V.V., Jha, P.K., Singh, H., Ciampitti, I.A., Min, D. (2022). Modeling Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Cereal Crops in Ethiopia. In: Ahmed, M. (eds) Global Agricultural Production: Resilience to Climate Change . Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-14973-3_15
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