‘What if I Would Have Done Otherwise…’: A Controlled Adaptive Network Model for Mental Models in Counterfactual Thinking

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Mental Models and Their Dynamics, Adaptation, and Control

Part of the book series: Studies in Systems, Decision and Control ((SSDC,volume 394))

Abstract

In this chapter counterfactual thinking is addressed based on literature mainly from Neuroscience and Psychology. A detailed literature review was conducted in identifying processes, neural correlates and theories related to counterfactual thinking from different disciplines. A familiar scenario with respect to counterfactual thinking was identified. Based on the literature, an adaptive self-modeling network model was designed. This model captures the complex process of counterfactual thinking, the mental models that are involved, and the learning and control.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 149.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free ship** worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free ship** worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barbey, A.K., Krueger, F., Grafman, J.: Structured event complexes in the medial prefrontal cortex support counterfactual representations for future planning. Philosophical Trans. Royal Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 364(1521), 1291–1300 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhalwankar, R., Treur, J.: Modeling the development of internal mental models by an adaptive network model. In: Proceedings of the 11th Annual International Conference on Brain-Inspired Cognitive Architectures for AI, BICA*AI’20. Procedia Computer Science, vol. 190(4), pp. 90–101. Elsevier (2021a)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhalwankar, R., Treur, J.: A second-order adaptive network model for learner-controlled mental model learning processes. In: Benito, R.M., Cherifi, C., Cherifi, H., Moro, E., Rocha, L.M., Sales-Pardpo, M. (eds), Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol. 944, pp. 245–259. Springer Nature Switzerland AG (2021b)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhalwankar, R., Treur, J.: ‘If only I would have done that...‘: a controlled adaptive network model for learning by counterfactual thinking. In: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications and Innovations, AIAI’21, pp. 3–16. Advances in Information and Communication Technology, vol. 627. Springer Nature Switzerland (2021c)

    Google Scholar 

  • Byrne, R.M.J.: Mental models and counterfactual thoughts about what might have been. Trends Cogn. Sci. 6(10), 426–431 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Byrne, R.M.J.: The Rational Imagination: How People Create Alternatives to Reality. MIT Press (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • Byrne, R.M.J.: Precis of ‘the rational imagination: how people create alternatives to reality.’ Behavior. Brain Sci. 30(5–6), 439–453 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Byrne, R.M.J.: Counterfactual thought. Annu. Rev. Psychol. 67, 135–157 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Brigard, F., Hanna, E., St Jacques, P.L., Schacter, D.L.: How thinking about what could have been affects how we feel about what was. Cogn. Emot. 33, 646–659 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Epstude, K., Roese, N.J.: The functional theory of counterfactual thinking. Pers. Soc. Psychol. Rev. 12(2), 168–192 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fortin, N.J., Agster, K.L., Eichenbaum, H.B.: Critical role of the hippocampus in memory for sequences of events. Nat. Neurosci. 5(5), 458–462 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman, D., Miller, D.T.: Norm theory: comparing reality to its alternatives. Psychol. Rev. 93(2), 136 (1986)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Markman, K.D., Gavanski, I., Sherman, S.J., McMullen, M.N.: The mental simulation of better and worse possible worlds. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 29(1), 87–109 (1993)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roese, N.J.: The functional basis of counterfactual thinking. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 66(5), 805 (1994)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Russell, J.A.: Core affect and the psychological construction of emotion. Psychol. Rev. 110(1), 145 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanna, L.J., Schwarz, N., Small, E.M.: Accessibility experiences and the hindsight bias: I knew it all along versus it could never have happened. Mem. Cognit. 30(8), 1288–1296 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Starr, W.B.: Conditional and counterfactual logic. In: Knauff, M., Spohn, W. (eds.). The Handbook of Rationality. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  • Timberlake, B.: The effects of counterfactual comparison on learning and reasoning (Doctoral dissertation, University of Trento) (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  • Treur, J.: Network-Oriented Modeling: Addressing Complexity of Cognitive, Affective and Social Interactions. Springer Nature, Cham, Switzerland (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  • Treur, J.: Network-Oriented Modeling for Adaptive Networks: Designing Higher-Order Adaptive Biological, Mental and Social Network Models. Springer Nature, Cham, Switzerland (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  • Treur, J.: With a little help: a modeling environment for self-modeling network models. In: Treur, J., Van Ments, L. (eds.) Mental Models and their Dynamics, Adaptation and Control: a Self-Modeling Network Modeling Approach, Ch. 17 (this volume). Springer Nature (2022)

    Google Scholar 

  • Tulving, E., Markowitsch, H.J.: Episodic and declarative memory: role of the hippocampus. Hippocampus 8(3), 198–204 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Hoeck, N., Watson, P.D., Barbey, A.K.: Cognitive neuroscience of human counterfactual reasoning. Front. Hum. Neurosci. 9, 420 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, Y., Wan, Y., Zhang, C., Bai, L., Cui, L., Yu, P.: Competitive multi-agent deep reinforcement learning with counterfactual thinking. In 2019 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM), pp. 1366–1371. IEEE (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, R.C., Collins, A.G.: Ten simple rules for the computational modeling of behavioral data. Elife 8, e49547 (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  • Roese, N. J., Epstude, K.: The functional theory of counterfactual thinking: New evidence, new challenges, new insights. In Advances in experimental social psychology, vol. 56, pp. 1–79. Academic Press (2017)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Bhalwankar, R., Treur, J. (2022). ‘What if I Would Have Done Otherwise…’: A Controlled Adaptive Network Model for Mental Models in Counterfactual Thinking. In: Treur, J., Van Ments, L. (eds) Mental Models and Their Dynamics, Adaptation, and Control. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, vol 394. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85821-6_6

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85821-6_6

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-85820-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-85821-6

  • eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and Robotics

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Navigation