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A Basis for AGM Revision in Bayesian Probability Revision
In standard Bayesian probability revision, the adoption of full beliefs (propositions with probability 1) is irreversible. Once an agent has full...
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Hyperintensional evidence and Bayesian coherence
Bayesian approaches to rationality require that a person’s degrees of belief be coherent. Among other implications, coherence requires that a person...
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Bayesian Practical Inference
In this essay, we will try to provide a formal analysis of practical inference, attentive to the various phases in which it is articulated, and being...
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Critique of pure Bayesian cognitive science: A view from the philosophy of science
Bayesian approaches to human cognition have been extensively advocated in the last decades, but sharp objections have been raised too within...
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Ad hocness, accommodation and consilience: a Bayesian account
All of us, including scientists, make judgments about what is true or false, probable or improbable. And in the process, we frequently appeal to...
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The punctuated equilibrium of scientific change: a Bayesian network model
Our scientific theories, like our cognitive structures in general, consist of propositions linked by evidential, explanatory, probabilistic, and...
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What hinge epistemology and Bayesian epistemology can learn from each other
Hinge epistemology and Bayesianism are two prominent approaches in contemporary epistemology, but the relationship between these approaches has not...
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Theory-Theories
The theory-theory is introduced as the first answer to the question how mind reading works: We attribute beliefs, desires, emotions and other mental...
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How to Interpret Belief Hierarchies in Bayesian Game Theory: A Dilemma for the Epistemic Program
This article proposes two interpretations of the concept of belief hierarchies in Bayesian game theory: the behaviorist interpretation and the...
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Causal models versus reason models in Bayesian networks for legal evidence
In this paper we compare causal models with reason models in the construction of Bayesian networks for legal evidence. In causal models, arrows in...
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Accuracy, probabilism and Bayesian update in infinite domains
Scoring rules measure the accuracy or epistemic utility of a credence assignment. A significant literature uses plausible conditions on scoring rules...
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Theory Choice and Social Choice: Two Proposals to Escape from Arrovian Impossibility for ‘Large Scale’ Theory Choices Based on Kuhn’s Criteria
By applying Arrow’s impossibility theorem for social choice to scientific theory choice, Okasha concludes that there is no acceptable theory choice...
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Refining the Bayesian Approach to Unifying Generalisation
Tenenbaum and Griffiths ( Behavioral and Brain Sciences 24(4):629–640,
2001 ) have proposed that their Bayesian model of generalisation unifies... -
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Cooperation Mechanisms for the Prisoner’s Dilemma with Bayesian Games
This paper explores the cooperation mechanisms for the prisoner’s dilemma game, a canonical example for studying cooperation mechanisms, with...
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Determining Maximal Entropy Functions for Objective Bayesian Inductive Logic
According to the objective Bayesian approach to inductive logic, premisses inductively entail a conclusion just when every probability function with...
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Imagination as a skill: A Bayesian proposal
In recent works, Kind (
2020a ,b ) has argued that imagination is a skill, since it possesses the two hallmarks of skill: (i) improvability by practice ,... -
Bayesian Rationality Revisited: Integrating Order Effects
Bayes’ inference cannot reliably account for uncertainty in mental processes. The reason is that Bayes’ inference is based on the assumption that the...
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Influence theory
Influence theory is a systematic study of formal models of the communicative influence of one person or group of people on another person or group....
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Confirmation by Robustness Analysis: A Bayesian Account
Some authors claim that minimal models have limited epistemic value (Fumagalli,
2016 ; Grüne-Yanoff,2009a ). Others defend the epistemic benefits of...