Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of predicting certain future events or conditions by analyzing the available information. Forecasting plays an important role in tourism development, marketing, and operations management. Its development in tourism can be traced back to the 1960s. Over the past half century, various forecasting approaches and techniques have been developed and applied to tourism demand analysis.

Classification of forecasting methods

Depending on data availability, tourism forecasting methods fall into two broad categories of quantitative and qualitative approaches. The former is normally adopted when sufficient quantifiable information about the past is available and objective numerical measurements are consistent over the historical period. Mathematical and statistical principles serve as the technical foundations of quantitative forecasting. Qualitative approaches are appropriate if little or no quantitative information is available, but there is sufficient non-numerical...