Introduction
The notion of uncertainty has taken different meanings and emphases in various fields, including the physical sciences, engineering, statistics, economics, finance, insurance, philosophy, and psychology. Analyzing the notion in each discipline can provide a specific historical context and scope in terms of problem domain, relevant theory, methods, and tools for handling uncertainty. Such analyses are given by Agusdinata (2008), van Asselt (2000), Morgan and Henrion (1990), and Smithson (1989).
In general, uncertainty can be defined as limited knowledge about future, past, or current events. With respect to policy making, the extent of uncertainty clearly involves subjectivity, since it is related to the satisfaction with existing knowledge, which is colored by the underlying values and perspectives of the policymaker and the various actors involved in the policy-making process, and the decision options available to them.
Shannon (1948) formalized the relationship between...
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Agusdinata, D. B. (2008). Exploratory modeling and analysis: A promising method to deal with deep uncertainty. Ph.D. dissertation, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
Agusdinata, D. B., Marchau, V. A. W. J., & Walker, W. E. (2007). Adaptive policy approach to implementing intelligent speed adaptation. IET Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS), 1(3), 186–198.
Ben-Haim, Y. (2006). Information-gap decision theory: Decisions under severe uncertainty (2nd ed.). New York: Wiley.
Courtney, H. (2001). 20/20 foresight: Crafting strategy in an uncertain world. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.
Dewar, J. A. (2002). Assumption-based planning: A tool for reducing avoidable surprises. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Dixon, L., Lempert, R.J., LaTourrette, T., & Reville, R.T. (2007). The Federal role in terrorism insurance: Evaluating alternatives in an uncertain world (MG-679-CTRMP). Santa Monica, CA: RAND.
Eriksson, E. A., & Weber, K. M. (2008). Adaptive foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75, 462–482.
Funtowicz, S. O., & Ravetz, J. R. (1990). Uncertainty and quality in science for policy. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer.
Groves, D. G., Davis, M., Wilkinson, R., Lempert, R. (2008). Planning for climate change in the inland empire: Southern California. Water Resources IMPACT, July 2008.
Hillier, F. S., & Lieberman, G. J. (2001). Introduction to operations research. New York: McGraw Hill.
Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, uncertainty and profit. New York: Houghton Mifflin Company (republished in 2006 by Dover Publications, Mineola, NY).
Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., & Marchau, V. A. W. J. (2010a). Adaptive airport strategic planning. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 10(3), 249–273.
Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., & Marchau, V. A. W. J. (2010b). From predictive modeling to exploratory modeling: How to use non-predictive models for decision-making under deep uncertainty. 25th Mini-EURO Conference on Uncertainty and Robustness in Planning and Decision Making (URPDM 2010), Coimbra, Portugal, 15–17 April 2010.
Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., & Marchau, V. A. W. J. (2010c). Assessing the efficacy of adaptive airport strategic planning: Results from computational experiments. World Conference on Transport Research, Porto, Portugal, 11–15 July 2010.
Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., & Marchau, V. A. W. J. (2010d). Classifying and communicating uncertainties in model-based policy analysis. International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 10(4), 299–315.
Lakdawalla, D. N., Goldman, D. P., Michaud, P.-C., Sood, N., Lempert, R., Cong, Z., de Vries, H., & Gutlerrez, I. (2009). US pharmaceutical policy in a global marketplace. Health Affairs, 28, 138–150.
Lempert, R. J. (2002, May 14). A new decision sciences for complex systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(Suppl. 3), 7309–7313.
Lempert, R. J., & Collins, M. T. (2007). Managing the risk of uncertain threshold response: Comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk Analysis, 27(4), 1009–1026.
Lempert, R. J., & Groves, D. G. (2010). Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American west. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, 960–974.
Lempert, R. J., Groves, D. G., Popper, S. W., & Bankes, S. C. (2006). A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios. Management Science, 52(4), 514–528.
Lempert, R. J., Popper, S. W., & Bankes, S. C. (2003). Sha** the next one hundred years: New methods for quantitative long-term strategy analysis (MR-1626-RPC). Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Pardee Center.
Lempert, R. J., Schlesinger, M. E., & Bankes, S. C. (1996). When we don’t know the costs or the benefits: Adaptive strategies for abating climate change. Climatic Change, 33, 235–274.
Luce, R. D., & Raiffa, H. (1957). Games and decisions. New York: Wiley.
Makridakis, S., Hogarth, R. M., & Gaba, A. (2009). Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world. International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 794–812.
Marchau, V., Walker, W., & van Duin, R. (2008). An adaptive approach to implementing innovative urban transport solutions. Transport Policy, 15(6), 405–412.
Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., & van Wee, G. P. (2010). Dynamic adaptive transport policies for handling deep uncertainty. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(6), 940–950.
McCray, L. E., Oye, K. A., & Petersen, A. C. (2010). Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, 951–959.
McDaniel, R. R., & Driebe, D. J. (Eds.). (2005). Uncertainty and surprise in complex systems: Questions on working with the unexpected. Springer.
Morgan, M. G. (2003). Characterizing and dealing with uncertainty: Insights from the integrated assessment of climate change. The Integrated Assessment Journal, 4(1), 46–55.
Morgan, M. G., & Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty: A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Patt, A. G., & Dessai, S. (2004). Communicating uncertainty: Lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment. Comptes Rendu Geosciences, 337, 425–441.
Patt, A. G., & Schrag, D. (2003). Using specific language to describe risk and probability. Climatic Change, 61, 17–30.
Popper, S. W., Griffin, J., Berrebi, C., Light, T., & Min, E. Y. (2009). Natural gas and Israel’s energy future: A strategic analysis under conditions of deep uncertainty (TR-747-YSNFF). Santa Monica, CA: RAND.
Quade, E. S. (1989). Analysis for public decisions (3rd ed.). New York: Elsevier Science.
Rahman, S. A., Walker, W. E., & Marchau, V. (2008). Co** with uncertainties about climate change in infrastructure planning – An adaptive policymaking approach. ECORYS Nederland BV, P.O. Box 4175, 3006 AD, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Rosenhead, J., & Mingers, J. (Eds.). (2001). Rational analysis for a problematic world revisited: Problem structuring methods for complexity, uncertainty, and conflict. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
Seong, S., Popper, S. W., & Zheng, K. (2005). Strategic choices in science and technology Korea in the era of a rising China (MG-320-KISTEP). Santa Monica, CA: RAND.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27, 379–423. 623–656, July, October.
Smithson, M. (1989). Ignorance and uncertainty: Emerging paradigms. New York: Springer.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Taneja, P., Walker, W. E., Ligteringen, H., Van Schuylenburg, M., & van der Plas, R. (2010). Implications of an uncertain future for port planning. Maritime Policy & Management, 37(3), 221–245.
van Asselt, M. B. A. (2000). Perspectives on uncertainty and risk. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer.
van Asselt, M. B. A., & Rotmans, J. (2002). Uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling: From positivism to pluralism. Climatic Change, 54, 75.
van der Heijden, K. (1996). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
van der Sluijs, J. P. (1997). Anchoring amid uncertainty: On the management of uncertainties in risk assessment of anthropogenic climate change. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands.
van Drunen, M., Leusink, A., Lasage, R. (2009). Towards a climate-proof Netherlands. In A. K. Biswas, C. Tortajade, & R. Izquierdo (Eds.), Water management in 2020 and beyond. Springer.
Walker, W. E., Harremoës, P., Rotmans, J., van der Sluijs, J. P., van Asselt, M. B. A., Janssen, P., & Krayer von Krauss, M. P. (2003). Defining uncertainty: A conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support. Integrated Assessment, 4(1), 5–17.
Walker, W. E., Rahman, S. A., & Cave, J. (2001). Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policymaking. European Journal of Operational Research, 128(2), 282–289.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this entry
Cite this entry
Walker, W.E., Lempert, R.J., Kwakkel, J.H. (2013). Deep Uncertainty. In: Gass, S.I., Fu, M.C. (eds) Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1153-7_1140
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1153-7_1140
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4419-1137-7
Online ISBN: 978-1-4419-1153-7
eBook Packages: Business and Economics