New Features of the Global Oil Market in the Context of High Oil Prices

Abstract

In recent years, the global macroeconomic and geopolitical situation is complex and volatile, and the international oil price as a whole has shown an oscillating upward trend. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, strong global demand, and low inventory strategy, the international oil price exceeded $100/barrel again in 2022 after 8 years. In the second half of the year, due to the impact of macroeconomic downturn, international oil prices are still at a relatively high level. The global oil market as a whole is characterized by “four high, two low and one strong”, namely, high oil price, high discount, high gross margin, high demand, low inventory, low supply and strong structure. By analyzing the similarities and differences between the two oil price highs in history and the current high oil price, this paper summarizes some new features of the oil market under the current high oil price and puts forward targeted policy suggestions, including that China should maintain strategic determination under the high oil price, continue to promote the increase of domestic oil reserves and production to firmly control the domestic energy supply; give full play to the potential of the consumer market, and continue to enhance trade capacity, improve the strategic oil reserve rotation mechanism, try to carry out market-oriented operation; and accelerate the development of renewable energy, and promote the low-carbon transformation of the oil industry.