Abstract
In this study, we propose a robust statistical method to discern anomalous patterns in geoelectrical time series measured in a seismic area of the Southern Apennine chain. First, a filtering procedure to remove seasonal effects related to meteo-climatic fluctuations was carried out. Then, we selected an autoregressive model able to describe the time fluctuations of geoelectrical signals and propose a method to obtain an objective estimate of probability of occurrence for each extreme event detected in the time series. Our applications in Southern Italy allow us to hypothesize that the ambiguity of short-term prediction is within the complicated dynamics of the physical process responsible for electrical anomalies observed on the earth’s surface.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Akaike, H.: 1974, A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control, AC-19, 716–722.
Alessio, G., Esposito, F., Gorini, A. and Porfido S.: 1995, Detailed study of the Potentino seismic zone in the Southern Apennines, Tectonophysics 250, 113–134.
Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins G. M.: 1976, Time Series Analysis, Holden-Day, S. Francisco.
Cuomo, V., Di Bello, G., Lapenna, V., Macchiato, M., and Serio, C.: 1996, Parametric time series analysis of extreme events in electrical earthquake precursors, Tectonophysics 262 (1–4), 159–172.
Cuomo, V., Lapenna, V., Macchiato, M., and Serio, C.: 1997, Autoregressive models as a tool to discriminate chaos from randomness in geoelectrical time series: an application to earthquake prediction, Annali di Geofisica XL(2), 385–400.
Di Bello, G., Lapenna, V., Satriano, C. and Tramutoli, V.: 1994, Self-potential time series analysis in a seismic area of the Southern Apennines: preliminary results, Annali di Geofisica XXXVIII(5), 1137–1148.
Di Bello, G., Lapenna, V., Macchiato, M., Satriano, C., Serio, C. and Tramutoli, V.: 1996, Parametric time series analysis of geoelectrical signals: an application to earthquake forecasting in Southern Italy, Annali di Geofisica XXXIX(1), 11–21.
Dobrovolsky, I. P., Zubkov, S. I., and Miachkin, V.I.: 1979, Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zones, PAGEOPH 117, 1025–1044.
Doglioni, C., Harabaglia, P., Martinelli, G., Mongelli, E, and Zito, G.: 1996, A geodynamic model of the Southern Apennines accretionary prism, Terra Nova 8, 540–547.
Ekström, G.: 1994, Teleseismic analysis of the 1990 and 1991 earthquakes near Potenza, Annali di Geofisica XXXVII(6), 1591–1599.
Evans Ed.: 1997a, Special Section-Assessment of schemes for earthquake prediction, Geophys. J. Int. 131.
Geller, Ed.: 1996, Special Issue of Geophysical Research Letters “Debate on VAN method”, Geoph. Res. Lett. 23(11), 1291–1452.
Kendall, M. and Stuart, A.: 1976, The Advanced Theory of Statistics,Vol. 3, Charles Griffin Co, p. 585.
Lapenna, V., Macchiato, M., Patella, D., Satriano, C., Serio, C., and Tramutoli, V.: 1994, Statistical analysis of non-stationary voltage recordings in geoelectrical prospecting, Geophys. Prospect. 42, 917–952.
LeBoutillier, D. W. and Waylen, P. R.: 1988, Stochastic analysis of cold spells, J. Appl. Meteor. 27, 67–76.
Mallet, R.: 1862, The first principle of observational seismology as developed in the report to the Royal Society of London of the expedition made by command of the Society into the interior of the Kingdom of Naples to investigate the circumstances of the great earthquake of December 1857, London ( Reprint Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, Roma, 1987 ).
Nur, A.:1972, Dilatancy pore fluids, and premonitory variatons of t p /t s travel times, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 62, 1217–1222.
Pantosti, D. and Valensise G.: 1990, Faulting mechanism and complexity of the November 23, 1980, Campania Lucania earthquake, inferred from surface observations, J. Geophys. Res. 95 (B10), 15329–15341.
Park, S. K: 1996, Precursors to earthquakes: seismo-electromagnetic signals, Survey in Geophysics 17, 493–516.
Patacca, E., Scandone, P., Bellatalla, M., Perilli, and Santini, U.: 1988, L’Appennino Meridionale: modello strutturale e palinspastica dei domini esterni, Invited paper at the 74° Congresso Soc. Geol. It., pp. 67–69.
Rikitake, T.:1988, Earthquake prediction: an empirical approach, Tectonophysics 148, 195–210.
Scholz, C. H.: 1990, The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting, Cambridge University Press.
Scholz, C. H., Syches, L. R., and Aggarwal, Y. P.: 1973, Earthquake prediction: a physical basis, Science 181, 803–810.
Tertulliani, A., Anzidei, M., Maramai, A., Murru, M., and Riguzzi, F.: 1992, Macroseismic study of the Potenza (Southern Italy) Earthquake of 5 May 1990, Natural Hazards 6, 25–38.
Wyss, M. (ed.): 1991, Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors, American Geophys. Union, Washington.
Wyss, M.: 1997, Cannot earthquakes be predicted? Science 278, 487–488.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2000 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Cuomo, V. et al. (2000). Robust Statistical Methods to Discriminate Extreme Events in Geoelectrical Precursory Signals: Implications with Earthquake Prediction. In: Papadopoulos, G.A., Murty, T., Venkatesh, S., Blong, R. (eds) Natural Hazards. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2386-2_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2386-2_9
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-5571-2
Online ISBN: 978-94-017-2386-2
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive