How CENTCOM Can Exploit Russia’s Failure in Ukraine

Abstract

For CENTCOM, this is the best of times, and the worst of times. It is the best of times because China, Russia, and Iran face more severe challenges than they have in years. It is the worst of times because the resources available to CENTCOM continue to shrink. And the Russo-Ukraine war is compounded both trends. Fortunately, the Russo-Ukraine war offers CENTCOM new opportunities to advance U.S. interests and thwart U.S. competitors. First, the success of Ukrainian forces and the failure of Russian forces proves the U.S. is a vastly better security partner than Russia. Second, the speed and effectiveness of U.S. assistance, in the face of Russian threats, disproves the “abandonment” narrative so often heard in the CENTCOM AOR. Third, Russia’s dismal performance also discredits China as a security assistance partner since its equipment and approach are so similar to Russia’s, and China’s slow and limited support for Russia, its major “no limits” partner, pales in comparison to U.S. support for a minor partner like Ukraine. Furthermore, the prominent role of European states in supporting Ukraine reinforces CENTCOM’s narrative that when regional nations band together, under the umbrella of U.S. coordination, they can develop regional solutions to regional problems, and successfully oppose hostile global powers like Russia and China. The war in Ukraine has thus provided CENTCOM with incontrovertible proof to advance U.S. narratives, counter anti-U.S. narratives, discredit strategic rivals, and empower small and medium sized partners in the region. CENTCOM must fully exploit this unique opportunity.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times

Charles Dickens