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Criminal Offending Trajectories During the Transition to Adulthood and Subsequent Fertility

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The Demography of Transforming Families

Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ((PSDE,volume 56))

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Abstract

Behaviors during the transition to adulthood have the potential to influence long-term childbearing trajectories. Though overlooked in prior work, criminal behaviors are one such set of possible influences on later fertility. Criminal activity during adolescence and young adulthood could be linked to fewer children (if deviance reduces partnerships due to lower desirability as a mate or if incarceration reduces exposure) or more children (if deviance is indicative of sexual risk-taking or, perhaps counterintuitively, makes one more more desirable as a partner). Further, the link likely depends on the timing and duration of such activity. Using the National Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), we consider both timing and persistence of offending in adolescence (Wave I) and young adulthood (Wave III) as a predictor of the number of births by early-mid adulthood (Wave V), accounting for union experiences, incarceration, and risky sexual activity, along with a number of sociodemographic characteristics. For both men and women, offending is linked to fewer children. Compared to those with no history of offending, men who began offending in young adulthood and women who offended in both adolescence and young adulthood have significantly fewer children (b = −0.175 and b = −0.136, respectively) even after accounting for potentially confounding factors. Offending in young adulthood appears to indicate unique processes that depress fertility. Future work should identify specific mechanisms, such as lower desire for children or more stigmatization in the relationship market, that reduce childbearing.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Some of these differences may be due to issues with the accuracy of male childbearing data in surveys (Joyner et al., 2012; Monte & Fields, 2020), with evidence that some births to men are missing, particularly among disadvantaged men.

  2. 2.

    At Wave IV, the full age range is 24–34, but 93% of the sample was between 26–31. At Wave V, the full age range is 33–44, but 91% of the sample was 35–40.

  3. 3.

    Supplementary models in which we included these individuals did not yield substantively different results for our main variables of interest. Exploratory work showed that the vast majority of the individuals who reported never having sex but who had at least one child were men (85%) and identified as heterosexual (96%). For these individuals, it is unclear whether the information on sexual activity was incorrect, the data on fertility was incorrect, or some other process was occurring, such as pursuing assisted reproductive technologies (which is unfortunately not available in Add Health).

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported in part by center grants to Bowling Green State University’s Center for Family and Demographic Research (P2C-HD050959) and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s Carolina Population Center (P2C HD050924). A prior version was presented at the 2021 annual meeting of the Population Association of America. This project uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health). Add Health is directed by Robert A. Hummer and funded by the National Institute on Aging cooperative agreements U01 AG071448 (Hummer) and U01 AG071450 (Aiello and Hummer) at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Waves I-V data are from the Add Health Program Project, grant P01 HD31921 (Harris) from Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), with cooperative funding from 23 other federal agencies and foundations. Add Health was designed by J. Richard Udry, Peter S. Bearman, and Kathleen Mullan Harris at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Information on obtaining Add Health data is available on the project website (http://www.cpc.unc.edu/addhealth).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, USA

    Brittany Ganser

  2. Department of Sociology, and Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA

    Karen Benjamin Guzzo

Authors
  1. Brittany Ganser
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Correspondence to Karen Benjamin Guzzo .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Pennsylvania State University, San Francisco, CA, USA

    Robert Schoen

Appendices

Appendix A: Mean Parity by Serious and Intense Offending, N = 8909

 

Women

Men

Mean

Linearized SE

Mean

Linearized SE

Serious offending

    

 Engaged at neither wave

1.69

0.03

1.47b,c,d

0.04

 Engaged at wave I, but not wave III

1.74

0.06

1.74a,c

0.08

 Engaged at wave III, but not wave I

1.69

0.15

1.25a,b,d

0.10

 Engaged at both waves

1.82

0.19

1.70 a,c

0.11

Intense offending

    

 Engaged at neither wave

1.70

0.03

1.52

0.04

 Engaged at wave I, but not wave III

1.74

0.11

1.71c

0.10

 Engaged at wave III, but not wave I

1.60

0.26

1.34b

0.12

 Engaged at both waves

1.16

0.35

1.57

0.18

  1. Superscripts indicate significant differences across categories at p ≤ .05
  2. a different from engaged at neither wave
  3. b different from engaged at Wave I, but not Wave III
  4. c different from engaged at Wave III, but not Wave I
  5. d different from engaged at both waves

Appendix B: Full Models of Poisson Regression of Serious and Intense Offending, Women and Men

 

Women, Serious Offending

Women, Intense Offending

Men, Serious Offending

Men, Intense Offending

b

SE

b

SE

b

SE

b

SE

Serious offending (neither wave)a

        

 Wave I, but not wave III

−0.006

0.035

  

0.082

0.045

  

 Wave III, but not wave I

0.037

0.096

  

−0.097

0.082

  

 Both waves

0.043

0.101

  

0.105

0.063

  

Intense offending (neither wave)b

        

 Wave I, but not wave III

  

0.012

0.057

  

0.049

0.056

 Wave III, but not Wave I

  

0.008

0.141

  

−0.029

0.083

 Both waves

  

−0.294

0.272

  

0.093

0.124

  1. * p ≤ 0.05 ** p ≤ 0.01 *** p ≤ 0.001. Models control for full set of covariates, analogous to Models 4 in Tables 12.3 and 12.4
  2. a Serious offending is composed of the following questions: (1) hurt someone badly enough to need bandages or care from a doctor or nurse, (2) take part in a fight where a group of your friends was against another group, and (3) use or threaten to use a weapon to get something from someone
  3. b Intense offending consists of the same offending measures used in any offending. Intense offending is indicated when a respondent has reported engaged in three or more of the offending behaviors per wave

Appendix C: Poisson Regression of Wave V Fertility on Specific Offenses,spiepr146 Women

 

Property Offenses

Deliberately damage property that didn’t belong to you

Steal something worth more than $50

Go into a house or building to steal something

Steal something worth less than $50

b

SE

b

SE

b

SE

b

SE

Any offending (neither wave)

        

 Wave I, but not Wave III

−0.005

0.049

−0.059

0.087

0.083

0.085

0.025

0.048

 Wave III, but not Wave I

−0.152

0.117

−0.097

0.139

−0.209

0.219

−0.204

0.092*

 Both waves

−0.438

0.160**

0.160

0.243

0.100

0.272

−0.050

0.146

 

Drug and violent offenses

Sell marijuana or other drugs

Hurt someone badly enough to need bandages or carea

Take part in a fightb

Use or threaten to use a weapon to get something

b

SE

b

SE

b

SE

b

SE

Any offending (neither wave)

        

 Wave I, but not wave III

0.011

0.099

0.056

0.044

−0.008

0.040

−0.028

0.072

 Wave III, but not wave I

−0.058

0.088

0.063

0.153

0.177

0.097

0.006

0.150

 Both waves

−0.091

0.198

−0.043

0.196

−0.084

0.156

n/a

n/a

  1. * p ≤ 0.05 ** p ≤ 0.01 *** p ≤ 0.001 Models control for full set of covariates, analogous to Models 4 in Tables 12.3 and 12.4
  2. a Full question: hurt someone badly enough to need bandages or care from a doctor or nurse
  3. b Full question: take part in a fight where a group of your friends was against another group

Appendix D: Poisson Regression of Wave V Fertility on Specific Offenses, Men

 

Property Offenses

Deliberately damage property that didn’t belong to you

Steal something worth more than $50

Go into a house or building to steal something

Steal something worth less than $50

b

SE

b

SE

b

SE

b

SE

Any offending (neither wave)

        

 Wave I, but not Wave III

0.046

0.048

−0.015

0.075

0.071

0.075

−0.070

0.053

 Wave III, but not Wave I

−0.147

0.073*

−0.069

0.096

0.199

0.105

−0.039

0.077

 Both waves

−0.115

0.091

−0.049

0.206

−0.388

0.335

−0.022

0.101

 

Drug and violent offenses

Sell marijuana or other drugs

Hurt someone badly enough to need bandages or carea

Take part in a fightb

Use or threaten to use a weapon to get something

b

SE

b

SE

b

SE

b

SE

Any offending (neither wave)

        

 Wave I, but not Wave III

−0.027

0.069

0.080

0.045

0.108

0.060

0.112

0.079

 Wave III, but not Wave I

−0.129

0.074

−0.017

0.089

0.034

0.073

0.095

0.135

 Both waves

0.072

0.104

0.050

0.116

0.102

0.076

0.096

0.113

  1. * p ≤ 0.05 ** p ≤ 0.01 *** p ≤ 0.001 Models control for full set of covariates, analogous to Models 4 in Tables 12.3 and 12.4
  2. a Full question: hurt someone badly enough to need bandages or care from a doctor or nurse
  3. b Full question: take part in a fight where a group of your friends was against another group

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Ganser, B., Guzzo, K.B. (2023). Criminal Offending Trajectories During the Transition to Adulthood and Subsequent Fertility. In: Schoen, R. (eds) The Demography of Transforming Families. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 56. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-29666-6_12

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