Abstract
Migration is hard to measure due to the complexity of the phenomenon and the limitations of traditional data sources. The Digital Revolution has brought opportunities in terms of new data and new methodologies for migration research. Social scientists have started to leverage data from multiple digital data sources, which have huge potential given their timeliness and wide geographic availability. Novel digital data might help in estimating migrant stocks and flows, infer intentions to migrate, and investigate the integration and cultural assimilation of migrants. Moreover, innovative methodologies can help make sense of new and diverse streams of data. For example, Bayesian methods, natural language processing, high-intensity time series, and computational methods might be relevant to study different aspects of migration. Importantly, researchers should consider the ethical implications of using these data sources, as well as the repercussions of their results.
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1 Introduction
Migration has become one of the most salient issues confronting policymakers around the world. The historic adoption of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM)—the first-ever intergovernmental agreement on international migration—and the Global Compact for Refugees in December 2018 and the inclusion of migration-related targets in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development are a clear testament to this. These frameworks have also provided a renewed push to calls from the international community to improve migration statistics globally. The first of the 23 objectives of the GCM is about improving data for evidence-based policy and a more informed public discourse about migration. As a matter of fact, many countries still struggle to report basic facts and figures about migration, which limits their ability to make informed policy decisions and communicate those to the public, but also limits the ability of researchers to contribute to the production of evidence and knowledge on migration.
Migration is a complex phenomenon to measure. Population changes generally happen slowly as fertility and mortality tend to impact population dynamics gradually. However, a country’s population structure might change more rapidly due to migration (Billari, 2022). Migration, and in particular international migration, has become increasingly important in sha** population change, especially in higher-income countries, where fertility is decreasing (Bijak, 2010). The study of migration is affected by many challenges (i.e. availability of data, measurement problems, harmonisation of definitions) (Bilsborrow et al., 1997). Above all, there is a lack of timely and comprehensive data about migrants, combined with the varying measures and definitions of migration used by different countries, which are barriers to accurately estimating international migration (Bijak, 2010; Willekens, 1994, 2019). Despite the best efforts of many researchers and official statistics offices, international migration estimates lack quality due to the limited data available in many countries (Kupiszewska & Nowok, 2008; Poulain et al., 2006; Zlotnik, 1987). Migration is a topic widely discussed in several research fields including demography (Lee, 1966), sociology (Petersen, 1958), political science (Boswell et al., 2011), and economics (Kennan & Walker, 2011). Insufficient availability of quality data on migration can have a high social and political impact, because these inaccuracies might limit the capacity to take evidence-based decisions.
The main data sources used to measure migration are censuses, administrative records, and household surveys, collectively referred to as ‘traditional data sources’. These data sources have limitations related to the definition of migrants (i.e. the discrepancy between internationally recommended definition and applied definitions in each country), coverage of the entire migrant population, and the quality of the estimates (especially for admin records) (Azose & Raftery, 2019; Willekens, 2019). Moreover, traditional data on migration are not promptly and regularly available. There might be a gap of several months or even years between the time the data are collected and statistics are released to the public. Timely and granular migration data are needed not only for research purposes but also for informed policy and programmatic decisions related to migration. In times of global crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the need for accurate and timely data becomes particularly urgent, but the capacity to collect data from traditional sources can be significantly reduced (Stielike, 2022).
In the last 25 years, the world has experienced a data revolution (Kashyap, 2021). New data created by human digital interactions increased dramatically in volume, speed, and availability. The data revolution did come not only with the advent of new data sources but also with increased computational power. This, in turn, helped to create more sophisticated models to study social phenomena such as migration. New ‘ready-made’ data from digital sources, commonly referred to as ‘digital trace data’ (Salganik, 2019), have started to be repurposed to answer social science questions.
Cesare et al. (2018) addressed the challenges faced by social scientists when using digital traces. One of the main challenges is related to bias and non-representativeness, as users of social media platforms, for instance, are not representative of the broader population and might not necessarily reveal their true opinions or personal details. Correspondingly, understanding how to measure the bias of these online non-representative sources is critical to infer demographic trends for the wider population (Zagheni & Weber, 2015). Once the biases are quantified, one possible next step is to combine different data sources to extract more information and enhance the existing data. This is an ongoing process in which social scientists have started to combine survey data with digital traces, originally created for marketing, and repurposing them for scientific research (Alexander, Polimis and Zagheni, 2020; Gendronneau et al., 2019; Rampazzo et al., 2021; Zagheni et al., 2017). The idea of repurposing data is not new to the social sciences (Billari & Zagheni, 2017; Sutherland, 1963; Zagheni & Weber, 2015). For example, John Graunt’s first Life Table (1662) was in fact a reworking of public health data from the Bills of Mortality to infer the size of the population of London at the time (Sutherland, 1963).
New data sources are a gold mine for migration studies because they offer an opportunity to address the lack of information which hinders this field of research. Digital traces (especially social media data) are quick to collect using, for example, Twitter’s or Facebook’s application programming interface (API)Footnote 1 (for a comprehensive overview of digital trace data for migration and mobility, check Bosco et al., 2013). Fake and duplicate accounts might also be a challenge when studying migrants on social media. For Facebook, the percentages of fake and duplicated accounts are reported every year on the US Securities and Exchange Commission documents and are stable at a 11% duplicate accounts and 5% fake accounts (US SEC Commision, 2018, 2019, 2020). Therefore, possible algorithm changes on the measure provided may affect continuity of data from these sources. Case in point, previous work (Palotti et al., 2020; Rampazzo et al., 2021) identified discontinuities in the Facebook data in March 2019 leading to a drop in the global estimates of the number of migrants active on the platform.
Although migrants are not clearly defined in digital trace data, stock estimates of migrant populations seem to be proportionally comparable to traditional data estimates. Zagheni et al. (2017) showed that Facebook Advertising data and American Community Survey data are highly correlated. Moreover, Facebook Advertising data has proved to be faster in capturing out-migration from Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. Alexander et al. (2020) show how Facebook Advertising data allowed to provide monthly estimates of the relocation of Puerto Ricans to mainland USA, and subsequent return migration, which traditional data sources were not able to register. The same result is supported by the use of Twitter data (Martín et al., 2020), as well as by monthly Airline Passenger Traffic data used by the US Census Bureau.Footnote 3 Facebook Advertising Platform could also be used to monitor out-migration from a country experiencing political turbulence, such as Venezuela (Palotti et al., 2020). These examples highlight another important feature of digital trace data: their broad geographic availability. These data can be widely available also in contexts of poor traditional statistics (e.g. low- and middle-income countries); for example, the Facebook migrant variable is available for 17 of the 54 African countries (Rampazzo & Weber, 2020).
Facebook Advertising data has also provided insights on migrant integration in Germany and the USA (Dubois et al., 2018; Stewart et al., 2020; Sîrbu et al., 2021). Moreover, companies such as LinkedIn, Indeed, and Duolingo provide reports on their users that might reflect migration dynamics. LinkedInFootnote 4 and IndeedFootnote 5 reports focus on economic migration, providing insights on the international job market, while DuolingoFootnote 6 featuring the most studied language per country shows, for example, how Swedish is the most popular language in Sweden or that German is the top language studied in the Balkans.
This section has looked at multiple digital data sources and what they can bring to the field of migration studies. Clearly, digital trace data have huge potential given their timeliness and wide geographic availability. However, calibrating new data sources with and validating them against traditional data are essential to use novel sources effectively for migration analysis and policy. New digital data offer possibilities to study a diverse range of topics, including the scale of migration, intentions to migrate, and integration and cultural assimilation of migrants. Given their wide applicability to often politically sensitive topics, such as migration and human displacement, social scientists should critically reflect on the risks of results being misinterpreted, or, worse, misused, and how unethical uses of the data could harm individuals, particularly those in vulnerable situations, and infringe upon their fundamental rights (Beduschi, 2017). While many of the applications of computational social science to study are motivated by a potential positive impact on both migrants and the wider society, similar methods could be used to limit freedom and rights of migrants (for a comprehensive analysis of ethical considerations, see Taylor, 2023).
3 New Opportunities in Migration Research
The Digital Revolution has brought not only new data sources but also opportunities to apply new methodologies or augment research possibilities. Modelling migration is necessary because of the lack of quality in migration data from both traditional and digital sources. Digital trace data needs to be calibrated with traditional data. A natural way of combining data sources is through Bayesian models; indeed, Alexander et al. (2020) suggest a framework to combine migration data from multiple sources over time through a Bayesian hierarchical model. One level of the model focuses on adjusting the bias related to non-representative data (e.g. digital trace data) for a ‘gold standard’ given by survey data (e.g. the American Community Survey). Rampazzo et al. (2021) proposed a Bayesian hierarchical model as well. Their model combines traditional and digital data considering both data sources to be biased. Both frameworks stress that digital trace data cannot be a substitute for traditional data sources and that more accurate results can be obtained through their combination, rather than replacement.
Moreover, social media could also be actively used to recruit survey respondents. Advertisements on social media can be repurposed to recruit survey participants to answer a questionnaire. Facebook and Instagram have been used to recruit survey respondents during the COVID-19 pandemic (Grow et al., Footnote 9 might be a solution, but terms and conditions of the project as well as ethical implications should be taken into account. Initiatives such as the Big Data for Migration Alliance (BD4M),Footnote 10 convened by IOM’s Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC), the EU Commission Knowledge Centre on Migration and Demography (KCMD), and the Governance Lab (GovLab) at New York University, aim to provide a platform for cross-sectoral international dialogue and for guidance on ethical and responsible use of new data sources and methods. Social Science One Footnote 11 tries to create partnerships between academic researchers and businesses. At the moment, it has an active partnership with Facebook, established in April 2018. The initiative is led by Gary King (Harvard University) and Nathaniel Persily (Stanford University). The goal is to give researchers access to Facebook’s micro-level data after having submitted a research proposal. There are significant privacy concerns from this, however, which has created delays in the process. On February 13, 2020, the first Facebook URLs dataset was made available; ‘The dataset itself contains a total of more than 10 trillion numbers that summarize information about 38 million URLs shared more than 100 times publicly on Facebook (between 1/1/2017 and 7/31/2019)’.Footnote 12 A research proposal is needed to apply for access to such datasets; this is the first step in analysing large micro-level datasets from private social media companies. Companies also often control the analysis produced with their data. Researchers using companies’ data have to follow strict contracts on its use and seek approval on the results before publication. The Social Science One initiative is interesting in this regard as it comes with pre-approval from Facebook. However, it also highlights challenges of relying on Facebook-internal teams to prepare the data in a non-transparent matter: recently, Facebook had to acknowledge that, accidentally, half of all of its US users were left out of the provided data.Footnote 13 This essentially invalidated any work done with the data so far, including that of PhD students. To avoid such issues, ultimately caused by a lack of external oversight, researchers are increasingly calling for legally mandated corporate data-sharing programmes to enable outside, independent researchers to analyse and audit the platformsFootnote 14 (Guess et al., 2022).
Overall, the value of new data sources and new models cannot be underestimated. However, applications of these tools for research and public policy purposes should follow high ethical and data responsibility standards. New data sources and AI-based technologies could help researchers and policymakers improve prediction abilities and fill information gaps on migrants and migration, but the use of these technologies should be closely scrutinised and comprehensive risk assessments undertaken to ensure migrants’ fundamental rights are safeguarded. The purposes of machine learning- and AI-based applications should be clearly communicated, and participatory approaches that empower migrant communities and ‘data subjects’ more generally should be promoted in research and policy domains, with a view to increasing transparency and public trust in these applications, but also provide guarantees for the protection of individual fundamental rights (Bircan & Korkmaz, 2021; Carammia et al., 2022). Many technologies come with a risk of being used to create ‘digital fortresses’Footnote 15 in which these tools keep out migrants, rather than support them. Hence, social scientists and other researchers should carefully weigh the risks and potential repercussions when using digital traces.
Notes
- 1.
An API is a kind of middleman between data held by a company and a user requesting this data. While the actual database storing the data is protected and not exposed to the outside world, an API provides a link between the requesting user and the server where the data are stored in a database (Cooksey, 2014; Sloan & Quan-Haase, 2017). To be able to connect to an API, a key authentication is usually needed, which is a long series of letters and numbers that identifies the account querying the API (Cooksey, 2014).
- 2.
The UN Expert Group on Migration Statistics is updating and revising concepts and definitions on international migration: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/migration-expert-group/task-forces/TF2-ConceptualFramework-Final.pdf and https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/migration-expert-group/task-forces/taskforce-2.
- 3.
- 4.
- 5.
- 6.
- 7.
On Facebook Advertising Platform, it is possible to also create advertisements on Instagram.
- 8.
- 9.
Web-scra** is defined as the process of automatically capturing online data from online websites (Marres & Weltevrede, 2013).
- 10.
- 11.
- 12.
- 13.
- 14.
- 15.
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Rampazzo, F., Rango, M., Weber, I. (2023). New Migration Data: Challenges and Opportunities. In: Bertoni, E., Fontana, M., Gabrielli, L., Signorelli, S., Vespe, M. (eds) Handbook of Computational Social Science for Policy. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-16624-2_18
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