Abstract
The upper reaches of the Yangtze River is an important part of the Yangtze River Basin, which concentrates most of the water energy resources. It is meaningful to carry out high-accuracy rainfall forecast in the basin, which can help extend forecast lead time, improve the forecast accuracy of runoff forecast, and provide important decision information for flood control and disaster reduction. To improve the accuracy of rainfall forecast in the watershed, different combination schemes of microphysical processes, boundary layers, and cumulus convection parameterization scheme combinations in the WRF model were evaluated by TS score, mean absolute error and Brier score. AR model was introduced to correct the rainfall prediction results. The results show that the WRF model has the highest accuracy of rainfall forecast when the microphysical process scheme, boundary layer parameterization scheme and cumulus convection parameterization scheme are WRF single-moment 3-class scheme, Yonsei University scheme and New Kain-Fritsch scheme respectively. The corrected rainfall forecast can partially correct the phenomenon of “staggered peak”, which make forecast accuracy better.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Chen DH, Xue JS (2004) An overview on recent progresses of the operational numerical weather prediction models. Acta Meteor Sin 62(05):623–633
Lei XH, Wang H, Liao WH et al (2018) Advances in hydro-meteorological forecast under changing environment. J Hydraul Eng 49(01):9–18
Liao JB, Wang XM, **a BC et al (2012) The effects of different physics and cumulus parameterization schemes in WRF on heavy rainfall simulation in PRD. J Trop Meteorol 28(04):461–470
Shen XS, Wang JJ, Li ZC et al (2020) China’s independent and innovative development of numerical weather prediction. Acta Meteor Sin 78(03):451–476
Shi DM, Jiang GY, Peng XD et al (2021) Relationship between the periodicity of soil and water loss and erosion-sensitive periods based on temporal distributions of rainfall erosivity in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China. CATENA 202:105268
Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Key Project of China (No. 52039004) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. U1865202).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Fang, W., Zhou, J., Yang, X., Jia, B., Wang, Y. (2022). Evaluation and Correction of Rainfall Forecast by WRF Model in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River. In: Jeon, HY. (eds) Sustainable Development of Water and Environment. Environmental Science and Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07500-1_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07500-1_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-07499-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-07500-1
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)