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Uncertainty in the Framework of Policy Analysis

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Public Policy Analysis

Part of the book series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science ((ISOR,volume 179))

Abstract

Synonyms: uncertainty, doubt, dubiety, skepticism, suspicion, mistrust, mean lack of sureness about someone or something. Uncertainty may range from falling short of certainty to an almost complete lack of conviction or knowledge especially about an outcome or result. Doubt suggests both uncertainty and inability to make a decision. Dubiety stresses a wavering between conclusions. Skepticism implies unwillingness to believe without conclusive evidence. Suspicion stresses lack of faith in the truth, reality, fairness, or reliability of something or someone. Mistrust implies a genuine doubt based upon suspicion. [Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary].

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Notes

  1. 1.

    For a list of real world policy cases in which policymakers ignored uncertainty, acting as if the evidence was more certain than was the case, and were confronted with the consequences of their doing so, see (EEA 2001).

  2. 2.

    One of the best of such book is (Morgan and Henrion 1990)

  3. 3.

    Donald Rumsfeld, Department of Defense news briefing, Feb. 12, 2002.

  4. 4.

    Thomas Schelling, in a Foreward to Wohlstetter’s (1962) study Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision, wrote "There is a tendency in our planning to confuse the unfamiliar with the improbable. The contingency we have not considered seriously looks strange; what looks strange is thought improbable; what is improbable need not be considered seriously".

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  1. Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands

    Warren E. Walker, Vincent A. W. J. Marchau & Jan H. Kwakkel

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  1. Warren E. Walker
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  1. , Department of Technology, Policy and Man, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box, Delft, 2600 GA, Netherlands

    Wil A. H. Thissen

  2. , Department of Technology, Policy and Man, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, Delft, 2600 GA, Netherlands

    Warren E. Walker

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Walker, W.E., Marchau, V.A.W.J., Kwakkel, J.H. (2013). Uncertainty in the Framework of Policy Analysis. In: Thissen, W., Walker, W. (eds) Public Policy Analysis. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 179. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-4602-6_9

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