Risk and Resilience in the Era of Climate Change

This book presents essential insights on the interaction between rising risks and raising the bar for resilience during the climate crisis. Its timeliness lies in applying important findings on risk and resilience to runaway climate change. When risk and resilience are brought together in the context of climate catastrophes, three key messages emerge.



The first is that accounting for the root causes of these calamities, and not just their symptoms, is essential to slowing the spike in these events. It is therefore vital to link carbon emissions from human activity to the sharp rise in climate disasters globally. The second is that growth economics and policy must factor in the failure of governments and businesses to tackle spillover harm from economic activities, as seen dramatically with global warming. With climate risks rising, this calls for a fundamental revision in the teaching and practice of business and economics. And third, prevention must become a far bigger part of resilience building, with greater preparedness for more intense destruction built into interventions. This emphasis on prevention deems disaster recovery as not just returning to how things were but building back better.

“As we stare down at the climate emergency, this publication provides crucial insights into risk and resilience in troubled times. The work enriches our understanding of smart policy instruments which serve a dual aim, to mitigate climate change and enhance resilience. In so doing, it makes a key contribution to viewing economic growth through a different lens, one which accounts for the quality of growth, resilience, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability—where climate action makes sustained growth possible.” (—Inger Andersen, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations, and Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme)

“Professor Vinod Thomas has eloquently and forcefully highlighted how important it is to improve climate resilience in the energy sector. He provides invaluable insights on the impacts climate change is already having on energy systems and about the key actions that are needed in response, covering policy, communication, innovation, investment, and individual behaviour. By doing so, he delivers a strong message that building energy sector resilience against climate change requires a multi-faceted approach across all parts of society.” (—Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency)



“With swee** coverage and compelling analysis, Vinod Thomas explains the rising risk from climate change and other threats facing society. But Professor Thomas does not stop there. Rather he high-lights the path forward including the need for investments in resilience, better disaster management, recast economic thinking, improved global governance, business transformation, and most urgently, a shift in mind-sets that will reshape education, public values, and ultimately behavior. Critical reading for policymakers, corporate leaders, environmental advo-cates, energy experts, as well as students and scholars – and anyone else interested in a sustainable future.” (—Daniel C. Esty, Hillhouse Professor, Yale University and Editor, A Better Planet: 40 Big Ideas for a Sustainable Future)



“With the sharp rise in climate risks, various discussions of policy and technical solutions are at center stage. However, for these deliberations to have meaningful traction, they need to be supported by a sea change in people’s mindsets and policymakers’ priorities for action. This book makes a significant contribution in calling for transformational change in values, education, and behavior that will underpin the sustainability of development. A must-read for policymakers and academics alike.” (—Jikyeong Kang, President, Dean and MVP Professor of Marketing, Asian Institute of Management)



“The COVID-19 pandemic is a stark reminder of humanity’s vulnerability to shocks from nature. The costs to humanity depend on how well we understand the nature of the shock, take actions in advance for mitigation and adaptation, and strengthen society’s resilience with preparations. Among all known possible shocks from nature, climate change driven by global warming is likely to be the most threatening. This informative and authoritative book by Professor Vinod Thomas provides convincing arguments and practical advice for countries in the north and the south to build the needed resilience before it is too late. This book is timely, and a must read for anyone concerned with humanity’s future.” (—Justin Yifu Lin, Dean, Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University, Former Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, World Bank)



“Vinod Thomas’s urgent call to action on climate change is both well-informed and well-intentioned, providing clear and compelling arguments for reforming global governance and sharply shifting development priorities from economic growth to climate change. It is indispensable reading for policymakers, leaders of development organizations, and all those committedto building a sustainable future.” (—Albert Park, Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank)



“This timely work on risk and resilience in the world of climate change is an important one. In addressing climate change, we would do well to construct better models of resilience, understanding types and degrees of risk estimates, and not be bogged down with just economic efficiency arguments, and neither should it be based on only socio-economic considerations. Professor Vinod Thomas, with his relevant and wide background in economics and public policy, both in the academia and in the real policy front is in a very good position to combine these important elements to push further our understanding of climate change issues. I fully endorse this book.” (—Euston Quah, Albert Winsemius Chair Professor and Head of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, and Editor, Singapore Economic Review)



“As crises hammer our world with increased intensity and frequency, it is urgent that leaders and policymakers read this book. Professor Vinod Thomas brilliantly demonstrates, with abundant data and evidence, that addressing the climate change crisis urgently and holistically makes good economic sense and that this will be best done by strengthening resilience at the local, national, regional, and global levels. As the house burns, this book can convince even the most skeptical that there will be no future if the risk posed by climate change is not better understood and addressed, and if resilience is not placed at the very center of development strategies.” (—Veronique Salze-Lozac’h, Chief Evaluator, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)



“Everyone should read this clear-eyed and expertly-researched analysis of the role climate change is playing and will play in human lives. Dr. Thomas walks us through the science, the public policy, the need to both mitigate and adapt, the strategies andbest practices, and how we can transform the trajectory. Amongst other important concluding recommendations, Dr. Thomas issues a clarion call for moving away from our overuse of GDP to design public policy objectives that prioritize growth over societal impacts. To paraphrase Dr. Thomas – it is time to start measuring quality over quantity and make our personal, professional, and political decisions based on improving the quality of life for all.” (—Tensie Whelan, Professor and Founding Director NYU Stern Center for Sustainable Business)



“This book shows with great clarity and by drawing upon recent publications, that there is an urgent need to recognize the increasing risk posed by climate change, to alter mindsets, and to fundamentally rethink economic strategies. If growth is to remain a priority, it must be rendered sustainable through the avoidance of diseconomies and by measures that build resilience in the face of shocks to come. This compact and incisive volume is a welcome addition to the literature on a vital topic. It could nudge the undecided to recognize the enormity of the challenge that is upon us.” (—Shahid Yusuf, Chief Economist, Growth Dialogue and Non-Resident Fellow, Center for Global Development)

Vinod Thomas, Visiting Professor at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, was Senior Vice President, Independent Evaluation, at the World Bank, and Director General of Independent Evaluation at the Asian Development Bank. He has authored 17 books, including Climate Change and Natural Disasters (2017).