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Energy Consumption in Russia: Current State and Forecast

  • INDUSTRIES AND INTERINDUSTRY COMPLEXES
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Studies on Russian Economic Development Aims and scope

Abstract

Study of development prospects of the country’s economy and energy requires long-term forecasting of energy demand. Such forecasting is particularly complex due to, among other things, uncertainty of economic and political conditions and technological development, as well as increasing ambiguity and variability of the relevant influencing factors and trends. The article provides an analysis of the current state, long-term trends, and new directions of energy use in large sectors of the Russian economy (industry, household, transport), including comparisons with other countries. The applied methodological approach to forecasting energy demand can be adjusted for promising structural and technological changes in industries, the spread of new technologies, and improved energy efficiency. Possible trajectories of changes in electricity and energy demand and in the energy intensity of Russia’s GDP in the period until 2050 are calculated for conservative and baseline economic development scenarios. It is shown that the dynamics of per capita electricity consumption in Russia correspond to global trends. Additionally, estimates of changes in energy consumption levels associated with the use of digital technologies in the household sector and with large-scale development of electric mobility are also given.

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Notes

  1. State Report on the State of Energy Conservation and Improvement of Energy Efficiency in the Russian Federation in 2020, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/file/c3901dba442f8e36-1d68bc019d7ee83f/Energyefficiency2020.pdf.

  2. To compare numerical values of the energy intensity of Russia and other countries, GDP is estimated in 2015 dollars at the purchasing power parity of currencies.

  3. Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Rosstat). https://rosstat.gov.ru/enterprise_industrial.

  4. See Outlook 2021.

  5. Energy Technology Perspectives 2020. IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020.

  6. Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Rosstat), excluding private motor transport.

  7. EIA. International Energy Outlook 2021. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/.

  8. Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/directions/makroec/pro-gnozy_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya/prognoz_soci-alno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya_rossiyskoy_federacii_na_period_do_2036_goda.html.

  9. Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Rosstat). https:// rosstat.gov.ru/compendium/document/13285?print=1.

  10. Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the Period until 2035, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation no. 1523-р dated June 9, 2020. https://minenergo.gov.ru/node/1026. Potentsial’nye vozmozhnosti rosta rossiiskoi ekonomiki: analiz i prognoz (Potential Growth Opportunities for the Russian Economy: Analysis and Forecast), scientific report of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences. https://ecfor.ru/publication/potentsial-rosta-ekonomiki/.

  11. The prospects for the use of digital technologies in Russia are extremely uncertain and depend on the economic situation, state policy, availability of technologies, population lifestyle, etc.

  12. Calculated disregarding electricity consumption at charging stations and losses.

  13. National Program Digital Economy of the Russian Federation, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 1632-р dated July 28, 2017; National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence Development for the period until 2030, approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 490 dated October 10, 2019; Concept for Development of Production and Use of Electric Motor Vehicles in the Russian Federation for the Period until 2030, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 2290-р dated August 23, 2021.

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Funding

The study was performed as part of the project under state assignment no. FWEU-2021-0003 of the Fundamental Research Program of the Russian Federation for 2021–2030, reg. no. АААА-А21-121012090014-5, and supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 20-010-00204-a.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 664033, Irkutsk, Russia

    O. V. Mazurova & E. V. Gal’perova

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  1. O. V. Mazurova
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  2. E. V. Gal’perova
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Correspondence to O. V. Mazurova.

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The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

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Translated by A. Ovchinnikova

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Mazurova, O.V., Gal’perova, E.V. Energy Consumption in Russia: Current State and Forecast. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 34, 105–114 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723010136

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