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Atlantic and Mediterranean-Sourced Precipitation over the Maghreb: Trends and Spatiotemporal Variability

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Abstract

The Mediterranean basin is recognized as a potential focal point of global warming, marked by a rising incidence of both droughts and floods. Nevertheless, uncertainties persist regarding the precise impact of climate change on the water cycle in this region. Therefore, this study endeavors to scrutinize the recent precipitation trends and fluctuations across the Maghreb (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) and their connection to both the Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture sources. To spatialize these trends and variations, we used a satellite precipitation product that we have beforehand evaluated at different time scales. Furthermore, we employed two influential teleconnection patterns: the NAO index, representing Atlantic influence, and the WeMO index for theMediterranean influenceThe statistical assesment of the satellite-based rainfall data demonstrated strong correlations with ground-based rainfall, ranging from 0.45 to 0.8. The median Percentage Bias was found to be 10%. The median Mean Absolute Error was approximately 12 mm, while the Root Mean Square Error averaged around 18 mm. Overall, all chosen criteria yielded satisfactory outcomes, providing a suitable level of confidence for conducting spatio-temporal trend analysis at the pixel level. At temporal scale, the trend results showed some upward trends in precipitation in certain areas during the months of March, April, August, September, and October. However, for the remainder of the year, the dominant trend is a decrease in precipitation across most of the North African territories. At spatial scale, the findings unveiled a decline in precipitation levels in the central and southern regions, while showcasing an increase in precipitation across the northern Maghreb. Moreover, the sphere of influence exerted by the WeMO exhibited expansion, along with a notable amplification in its modulation of precipitation patterns, particularly from September to April. Conversely, the NAO exerted a more pronounced influence during the winter months.

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Data availability

Processed data can be made available upon request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Georessources, Geoenvironment and Civil Engineening Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences and Technics, Cadi Ayyad University, 40000, Marrakech, Morocco

    Sara Boughdadi, Mohamed Elmehdi Saidi & Mariame Rachdane

  2. International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, 43150, Benguerir, Morocco

    Yassine Ait Brahim & Oualid Hakam

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  1. Sara Boughdadi
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  2. Mohamed Elmehdi Saidi
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  3. Yassine Ait Brahim
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  4. Oualid Hakam
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by S.B., M.E.S., Y.A.B., and O.H. The first draft of the manuscript was written by S.B and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Boughdadi, S., Saidi, M.E., Ait Brahim, Y. et al. Atlantic and Mediterranean-Sourced Precipitation over the Maghreb: Trends and Spatiotemporal Variability. Earth Syst Environ (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00426-9

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