Abstract
The main goal of this study was to survey a possible correlation between atmospheric parameters (air temperature, precipitation rate) and subsequent earthquakes in Iran and the surrounding Middle Eastern region. This research was carried out in response to previous work regarding atmospheric anomalies prior to major earthquake events. Area-averaged daily and monthly time-series data were compiled from global reanalyzed datasets for the study area between 1980 and 2018. The time-lagged correlation test through the cross-correlation function was examined to distinguish possible relationships between earthquake events and climatic elements within daily and monthly shifts. The results revealed that the precipitation has a strong ability to predict the earthquake series at least from 3½ months prior to the earthquakes. The estimated lagged correlation confirms a positive relationship between precipitation and subsequent earthquake events within 3 to 103 days lag-time (CCF= 0.036 to 0.046). Contrarily, no precursory relation was found between atmospheric temperature variations and subsequent earthquake events in Iran and the surrounding region.
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Notes
Modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications ver. 2 (MERRA-2) Model [M2SDNXSLV v5.12.4] at 0.5×0.625 deg. resolution.
Global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) Model [CLSM025 v2.0] at 0.25×0.25 deg. resolution.
Tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) [3B42 Daily v7] at 0.25×0.25 deg. resolution.
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We wish to acknowledge the NASA/GIOVANNI Data Center for the transmission of reanalysis data.
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MRMD and ME contributed to the meteorological and geographical aspects, while FTF addressed the solid state processes at the ground-to-air interface.
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Mansouri Daneshvar, M.R., Freund, F.T. & Ebrahimi, M. Time-lag correlations between atmospheric anomalies and earthquake events in Iran and the surrounding Middle East region (1980–2018). Arab J Geosci 14, 1210 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07591-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07591-5