Abstract
Debris-flow disasters occurred frequently after the Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurrence is closely related to the impact of earthquakes and droughts, because earthquake-drought activities can increase the loose solid materials, which can transform into debris flows under the effect of rainstorms. Based on the analysis of historical earthquake activity (frequency, magnitude and location), drought indexes and the trend of climate change (amount of rainfall), a prediction method was established, and the regional debris flow susceptibility was predicted. Furthermore, in a debris flow-susceptible site, effective warning and monitoring are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. The advantages of the prediction and early monitoring include (1) the acquired results being sent to the central government for policy making; (2) lives and property in mountainous areas can be protected, such as the 570 residents in the Aizi valley, who evacuated successfully before debris flows in 2012; (3) guiding the government to identify the areas of disasters and the preparation for disaster prevention and mitigation, such as predicting disasters in high-risk areas in the period 2012–2017, hel** the government to recognize the development trend of disasters; (4) the quantitative prediction of regional debris-flow susceptibility, such as after the Wenchuan earthquake, can promote scientific and sustainable development and socioeconomic planning in earthquake-struck areas.
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Acknowledgements
This research was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41671112 and 41861134008), National Key Research and Development Plan (Grant No. 2018YFC1505202) and Sichuan Province Science and Technology Plan Project Key research and development projects (Grant No. 18ZDYF0329). Finally, the authors wish to express their gratitude to anonymous reviewers and editor for their valuable comments that substantially improved this paper.
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Chen, Ns., Zhang, Y., Tian, Sf. et al. Effectiveness analysis of the prediction of regional debris flow susceptibility in post-earthquake and drought site. J. Mt. Sci. 17, 329–339 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-019-5684-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-019-5684-4